Good morning bloggers,
2013 began with a few lingering snowflakes falling and a cold air mass in place. Today, on January 2nd, a wave of energy will swing across us from the northwest with a band of clouds and possibly a few snow showers. I will go over the details of the weather pattern below. Brett Anthony posted the December Stats yesterday. I added a bit to it today:
The year closed with a rather surprising and exciting month of weather in Kansas City. It seemed as if it was a bit of a struggle to get precipitation to fall, but in the end we had just barely below average precipitation at KCI Airport with 1.34″ liquid. At least a trace of precipitation was reported on 15 of the 31 days. There was one rain storm and two snow storms last month and this is good news as we move forward this winter. This more active part of the pattern will be due back in a few weeks. Between now and then we see some good chances for precipitation producing storm systems, with the next one due in around the 10th.
Today, we have a system moving by that will likely produce a thick band of clouds. It is close to being strong enough to produce a few snow showers. A weak disturbance (the X) will be moving across Kansas and Missouri this afternoon as a trough aloft, the black dashed line, swings through reinforcing our cold air.
As the main trough approaches there is a chance that a thin band of snow showers will form later this afternoon or evening. A cold surge will follow this system and then the jet stream is forecast to lift north, but something interesting is also showing up as this happens.
On this next 500 mb forecast map, you can see a few things. The first thing that pops out at me is the upper level storm that is forecast to develop off the southwest coast during the next few days, and then eject out into the plains states by January 10th. The second thing that pops out at me is that the main jet stream is forecast to lift far to the north as the flow de-amplifies. This will help the cold air retreat and end up back across Canada as it reorganizes for what will likely be another surge south later in the month. This next storm has been consistently forecast to track in to our area around January 9th-10th. You can click on this map for a larger view. Here is a full view of the precipitation forecast from this storm:
Since we are confident that the main jet stream will be lifting far to the north there is very little chance that this storm will have a winter component in Kansas City. Rain is the most likely precipitation type in our area. And, as you can see, some of the models are predicting one inch or higher bullseyes. It will depend on how strong this storm is and what track it actually takes when it kicks out.
Suddenly, we have had some weather excitement in our area. I had a great time in Vegas, but I am very happy to be home. Happy New Year everyone. We will go over the details of this weather pattern on 41 Action News.
Please remember to follow the rules of the blog. A few of you broke some of the rules and this will not be tolerated at all as we move through 2013. We want this weather blog to be a fun place for us to share our, hopefully, exciting weather pattern.