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Happy New Year 2013

Good morning bloggers,

2013 began with a few lingering snowflakes falling and a cold air mass in place.  Today, on January 2nd, a wave of energy will swing across us from the northwest with a band of clouds and possibly a few snow showers.  I will go over the details of the weather pattern below. Brett Anthony posted the December Stats yesterday. I added a bit to it today:

The year closed with a rather surprising and exciting month of weather in Kansas City. It seemed as if it was a bit of a struggle to get precipitation to fall, but in the end we had just barely below average precipitation at KCI Airport with 1.34″ liquid.  At least a trace of precipitation was reported on 15 of the 31 days. There was one rain storm and two snow storms last month and this is good news as we move forward this winter.  This more active part of the pattern will be due back in a few weeks. Between now and then we see some good chances for precipitation producing storm systems, with the next one due in around the 10th.

Today, we have a system moving by that will likely produce a thick band of clouds. It is close to being strong enough to produce a few snow showers.  A weak disturbance (the X) will be moving across Kansas and Missouri this afternoon as a trough aloft, the black dashed line, swings through reinforcing our cold air.

As the main trough approaches there is a chance that a thin band of snow showers will form later this afternoon or evening.  A cold surge will follow this system and then the jet stream is forecast to lift north, but something interesting is also showing up as this happens.

On this next 500 mb forecast map, you can see a few things. The first thing that pops out at me is the upper level storm that is forecast to develop off the southwest coast during the next few days, and then eject out into the plains states by January 10th.  The second thing that pops out at me is that the main jet stream is forecast to lift far to the north as the flow de-amplifies.  This will help the cold air retreat and end up back across Canada as it reorganizes for what will likely be another surge south later in the month.  This next storm has been consistently forecast to track in to our area around January 9th-10th.  You can click on this map for a larger view.  Here is a full view of the precipitation forecast from this storm:

Since we are confident that the main jet stream will be lifting far to the north there is very little chance that this storm will have a winter component in Kansas City.  Rain is the most likely precipitation type in our area.  And, as you can see, some of the models are predicting one inch or higher bullseyes.  It will depend on how strong this storm is and what track it actually takes when it kicks out.

Suddenly, we have had some weather excitement in our area. I had a great time in Vegas, but I am very happy to be home.  Happy New Year everyone. We will go over the details of this weather pattern on 41 Action News.

Please remember to follow the rules of the blog. A few of you broke some of the rules and this will not be tolerated at all as we move through 2013.  We want this weather blog to be a fun place for us to share our, hopefully, exciting weather pattern.

Gary

 

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64 comments to Happy New Year 2013

  • davidmcg

    Good morning Gary, bleeping cold again this morning. Here in McLouth we dropped to 10.3°F and it has already started climbing, now 12.6°F. Looking forward to some sun and melt some of this snow. The sound of rain will be welcome next week. Hopefully we will get that inch spread over 48 hours.

  • cweb

    When do you think the next chance of some snow is?

  • frigate

    Looking forward to a break from these below average temps and some rain to wash the crud off the roads!

    Gary are you guys looking to replace GW?

  • mukustink

    Gary welcome back to cold KC. Did you get any snow in Vegas from the storm? Were you up at midnight to ring in the new year? The wife fell asleep so I gave a kiss to the dogs at midnight? Were you able to get a smooch at midnight? ;)

    It would be nice to see this system put out as forecasted this far out. It’s a little encouraging that the GFS is forecasting the amount of rain and not the NAM as the NAM has way overdone liquid. As ususal time will tell. Have a good rest of the week.

  • blueskies

    I thought Weatherman Brad would be a good pick for GW’s replacement, and could possibly become the next Dan Henry. But Brad has gone missing so often lately. A hurricane, and 2 KC snows, and Brad barely posted. He may be self-grooming for Gary job.

  • Kansa

    Welcome back, Gary! It has been nice to have some precipitation lately, even though I am not fond of the snow. I hate cold temperatures worse, though, and my understanding is that January is usually the coldest month for K.C. Really liked seeing the upward trend in temps on the 7 day forecast!

  • Emaw

    There it is in print, Gary said the blog should be a fun place to talk about weather, not a place where if you disagree with someone you are accused of being a troll. Lighten up people, learn to take a joke now and then, this isn’t. Life and death. By the way, I’ve been on this blog since its inception.

  • Dwight

    Gary, commenters are constantly reminded that breaking blog rules will not be tolerated. As far as I can tell, there is rarely a consequence and profane or rude behavior is only met with polite and feckless warnings. So, unless you are going to actually enforce your rules, you can dispense with the silly warnings. The toddlers are running rampant through the cookie store and most of the adult customers leave when the childish antics begin.

  • OlatheMatt

    Meteor shower tonight. The Quadrantid meteor shower is what it is named. Looking forward to 2013. As for the blog and the whole rules thing. There are what…3 or 4 certain posters who I wont name who I consistently see starting problems and acting like bad children on here. They cool down when the heat is on them, but they usually rear their ways soon enough. They have been here for a while and post often. I have been around for a while too EMAW, and agree with what you posted as well.

  • McCabe58

    Any precipitation is welcome! Lets end this drought, would be cool if we could get some January thunderstorms? Any chance of that with the 9th-10th storm? Hey Gary how much snow has kci received so far this winter?

    • mukustink

      Did you actually read the blog post? It tells you how much snow we have received. Look at the post again to find your answer.

      • blueflash

        No the blog does not state how much snow KCI has received so far this winter. It states how much snow was received in December. Not necessarily the same thing.

        • mukustink

          Well it didn’t snow in November and the only 2 snowfalls were in December so yes the blog does state how much snow has fallen. Now if you want to get technical winter started on the 21st of Dec. so actually only 2.1 incjes have fallen this winter of 2012-2013. MOst people consider winter to begin when it gets cold so most would consider both totals valid for this winter. Sometimes you have to figure out things for yourself and actually think instead of having it spoon fed to you.

          • zimbokc

            I’m going to start saving muku’s posts in order to make the case his constant harassment of fellow bloggers warrants his removal.

            • mukustink

              @Zimbokc what’s your problem? You can savewhat ever you like. I was pointing out the facts that were stated in todays blog. How am I harrassing the blogger by pointing out facts. Go somewhere else and cry and I ask that you be removed for harrassing me. Your part of the problem. Mind your own business ok bimbokc. Have a great evening!!

              • Meteorologically,winter begins Dec.1…Remember I had to remind mowermike,back,mid november… :) I miss him… :)

                • blueflash

                  My point was, McCabe’s question was a fair one, and there was no reason to belittle him. Especially when your response was in error. You may know that there was no snowfall in November, but not everyone else may have had that fact at their disposal.

                  • mukustink

                    How exactly did I belittle him? Those that are on the blog all the time like Mcgabby would know that it didn’t snow in November. It was a fair question I asked of him.

                    • mukustink

                      Tusch you are correct. I was stating astronomical winter. I should have stated both for those who can’t look up facts on their own. Thanks. By the way Mikey is over on the competitors blog. He has been talking with JL and Mikey predicted 5 inches of snow for this last snowfall.

              • zimbokc

                You are simply not a nice person. There was no need to add the point about being “spoon fed” information; you only added it because you wanted to be rude.

  • mukustink

    Hey Gary whay is it so hard to keep a 3rd on air met? It seems they stay for about a year or so and then move on. Is there a reason for this or is it just the norm? Thanks your the man!

  • McCabe58

    He never stated it, but yes it was in the picture.. Must have skipped over that. With 4.6 inches already if say we could definitely be in track for 15-20″ for the winter. Maybe more.

  • McCabe58

    Stupid iPhone… I’d* on*

  • mgsports

    Just hook up with the local Weather Channel here then when a Met leaves wouldn’t have to hire a new person or just give Jeff Penner the Job but it’s up to the new GM to decide Also hiring Anchors to and maybe more Digital Sub Channels.

    Know back to weather no more Snow/Ice please.

  • blue8091

    Welcome back Gary! Outside of all the wintry weather, I have been wondering about the drought and its long term forecast. I know we ended the year drastically behind on precip. I know I’ve seen the formula posted here, but can’t remember exactly – 6 inches of snow for every inch of rain? So, even if we do get around 20″ of snow this winter, it’s not a lot of precip for what we need so badly. What’s the best guess on if we break the drought this spring? I manage quite a few nice rental homes and even with great tenants, they can’t always be relied upon to water the foundations like home owners would. I’m trying to forecast the maintenance budget for the year – and wondering if I need to include the expense for sending someone to do this watering – so just one of the reasons I’m interested! Mainly, just praying that the farmers and the land get water.

    • blue8091

      BTW – those questions are for anybody who would like to answer and also I get that it’s just a guess…I’ll be prepared on my end. Just curious is all.

  • Well the next couple of wks will be very busy at work!!!! Can’t wait for more snow though!!

  • McCabe58

    Please do!

  • McCabe58

    But honestly Gary knows at this point who the harassing bloggers are. Just refuses to actually do anything about it like was stated above by Dwight.

    • mukustink

      This is a free and open blog. Just because you want it to be your private love fest of 41 and Gary does not make it so. I understand you stay up all night on here and can’t leave home without it but enough with the crying. My God I didn’t know so many cry babies exisited. If you don’t like a particular blogger DON’T READ THEIR POST!! Is someone standing there with a gun to your head making you read every post? COME ON MAN!

  • west shawnee

    I have been a follower of this blog for a long time and love it..but if people like muku don’t get kicked off for their constant bull its just not worth it…amazing how some people just like to ruin it for others

  • Skylar

    There are definitely harassing bloggers on here. The difference is, some do it to ruin the place and annoy people while others do it only in response.

  • HeatMiser

    I agree w/Mukustink…quit whining! Esp McCabe!

  • mukustink

    I think my wildcats are going to get killed tomorrow night. I hope it doesn’t get to ugly. I love my wildcats but I’m a realist.

    • HeatMiser

      Don’t underestimate the Wildcats…they are really good.

      • mukustink

        They are but they have had trouble defending the spread type style offenses. Granted that the messiah Synder has had weeks to prepare for Oregon and their high powered offense but I just think that Oregon has to much speed. I hope I’m wrong!

  • McCabe58

    Lol you have so many accounts.. It doesn’t matter like he said above just ignore him. He’s only looking for attention.

  • ksloco

    sure are alot of wannabee’s on here. The diva’s are taking over. Too bad, There is just no place to go anymore without confrontation. HooRah! to the Bullies, I guess? Wonder what it will be like in ten years?

  • tushchaser1

    Here is what, i don,t understand…why are some posts allowed and others not?

  • Emaw

    Every Man A Wildcat!

  • mukustink

    On NBC Nightly News they had a story on cry babies ha ha just kidding. They had a story on barge traffic not being able to move down the mighty mississippi due to the drought. There are places where the river level has dropped 10 feet the last 6 months. It’s amazing how much product that barges move. This is going to be a big problem if this drought continues into the spring and summer of this year which I think it will.

  • Kcchamps

    latest GFS has some light snow for us on Saturday

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013010300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066″

    shows maybe Dusting-1″

  • RickMckc

    Thanks, Champs.

  • McCabe58

    Zimbo.. I’m pretty sure all of the accounts that stir trouble on here are from one guy. His name is Ed I think and I’m really not sure why he’s so angry or what he has against people wanting to learn from a weather blog.

  • Kcchamps

    latest 6z GFS has a little snow storm for us on Tuesday!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013010306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=141″

    06z GFS