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Great Weekend Weather, then Changes

Good Saturday bloggers,

We will go into Kansas City’s weather and then discuss the cycling pattern. It has been quite the week as Gary and the Weather2020 team were present at the recent AMS Broadcast conference that was held here in Kansas City. Amazingly, half of our peers in attendance had never been to KC before. We believe they left fulfilled and had a great time while visiting our great city. I held the camera for Gary’s presentation on his Facebook Live yesterday. It really seemed to go well and we will discuss in just a second.

Kansas City:

We are in for some wonderful weekend weather as highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.  Dew points during the afternoon will be in the 40s.  The higher dew points will not return until the middle of next week.  It is not easy to have four consecutive days in the middle of the USA with comfortable humidity levels this time of year.  Here is the dew point forecast through Tuesday, pretty incredible, enjoy!  Remember, the dew point is the temperatures to which the air mass must cool to reach 100% humidity.  So, if it is 80° and the dew point is 73° it only has to cool to 73° to reach 100% humidity, so the air is pretty loaded with water vapor.  If the temperatures is 80° and it must cool to 45° to reach 100% humidity, then there is not nearly as much moisture in the air and this is what we have in store this weekend.

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Let’s go through the forecast the next three days then we will look at the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH) for the end of the week and why we have a chance to see more active weather.

SATURDAY: The weather will be great with abundant sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze as highs reach the mid to upper 70s.

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SUNDAY: We will see more of the same as highs reach the mid to upper 70s with abundant sunshine and a light wind.

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MONDAY: This has potential to be an interesting day as a disturbance tracks in from the northwest.  This disturbance will generate an area of rain and a few thunderstorms. In areas where it is raining during the day, temperatures may be in the 50s to low 60s!  Now, where it is not raining temperatures will reach the 70s.  So, this data has a decent area of rain from KC east midday Monday, hence the temperatures in the 50s.  Now, it is yet to be determined how extensive the rain areas will be and also the timing. These two factors will be crucial in what the temperatures will be like in your location.

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Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH): July 1, 2017

If you are a regular reader of this blog you know we are in a 56 to 61 day cycle.  So, the chance of thunderstorms is increasing for June 28 to July 2nd as a trough is forecast to track from the Rockies to Great Lakes followed by northwest flow. These features likely produce thunderstorms in the Plains and Midwest when it is the end of June and July. Let’s focus on the one main feature, the trough that will track from the Rockies to Great Lakes.  Next Saturday, July 1st, the trough is forecast to be in the Great Lakes.  So, lets look back at all the cycles with this seasons CPH and see if this fits.

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CPH Cycle 4: This is May 2nd which is 60 days prior to July 1st.  You can see the Great Lakes trough and even the trailing northwest flow.

500 mb May 2

 

CPH Cycle 3: This date is March 1st which is 122 days prior to July 1st, or two 61 day cycles.  Again you can see the trough moving into the Great Lakes with the trailing northwest flow.

500 mb March 1

 CPH Cycle 2: This date is January 4th, 178 days prior to July 1st or three 59.3 day cycles.  Once again, here is the trough in the Great Lakes with the trailing northwest flow.  The difference in this cycle is the big upper high in the Gulf of Alaska, so an upper low is tucked underneath in western Oregon, but two days later this low fell apart.

500 mb Jan 4

 CPH Cycle 1: This is November 8th, 235 days prior to July 1st or four, 58.75 day cycles.  Again, you can see the trough in the Great Lakes with northwest flow trailing into Canada.  The difference in this cycle is that the ridge is much bigger and more inland in to the western USA.

500 mb Nov 5

So, when you look at above maps, the Great Lakes trough is consistent and this makes it a strong signature and therefore gives us high confidence in the GFS for July 1st.  So, how does this help?  Well, we know what the weather pattern is going to look like July 1st and we know what a pattern like this means for this time of year and we can make a forecast.  So, when you have a trough in the Great Lakes that has tracked from the Rockies and you follow this with northwest flow at the end of June and early July it usually means clusters of thunderstorms rolling through the Plains and Midwest and we do believe we have a few good chances of rain in our region around July 1st.

I was at Gary’s AMS presentation on Friday and perhaps you saw it on Facebook live, but our peers are still skeptical and that is to be expected.  However, within the year we hope to get the CPH peer reviewed and this will help, but sometimes major discoveries are not accepted until decades after they have been hypothesized.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

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