Good Saturday morning bloggers,
The weather today will be spectacular as highs rise to near 60° with much less wind! It is January and it can not last forever. There are two cold fronts we are tracking this weekend. Front #1 arrives tonight with #2 arriving Sunday afternoon. The second front is the stronger of the two and means business. Highs Sunday will rise to near 40°, but the second front will sweep through, so that by Monday morning temperatures will be near 10° with wind chills near 0°. A small patch of very light snow and flurries may track across northeast Missouri with just a period of clouds for our side of the state. See the maps below showing the sequence of weather events this weekend.
MAP #1: TODAY @3 PM
GREAT WEATHER!
MAP #2: SUNDAY @11 AM
FRONT #2 APPROACHES
MAP #3: SUNDAY @340 PM
COLD BLAST ARRIVES!
MAP #4: MONDAY @6 AM
A FRIGID MLK MORNING!
Unfortunately, we have all of these changes, but no precipitation. We are over 20″ below average rainfall since April 1, 2012! Based on the LRC we will be seeing at least 3-4 storm systems from January 28 to February 20 that may bring our area some moisture. Systems do not like being in this part of the country and they just race by. So, lets hope we can get one to slow down and bring more than .25″ to .75″. There is a storm system showing up for around the 28th. It has some potential to be a wetter one than the ones so far, but lets see what it looks like when we get close to it! Gary put the following graphic together Friday night showing the next 12 days of precipitation chances. He showed it on 41 Action News Friday night and I will show it on our morning show from 8 to 10 AM.
MAP #5: PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT 12 DAYS
IN SEARCH OF MOISTURE!
Have a great weekend and enjoy the great Saturday weather!
Jeff Penner
Thanks for the updates Jeff!! It was quite windy overnight in South Overland Park so I’m looking forward to a calmer day wind wise and temps near 60 will be nice.
Though this may have been discussed in various contexts, what elements need to change so that the precipitation can increase and we work our way towards reducing the shortfall. Also, will the word “drought” continue until the precipitation shortfall shrinks? At what precipitation shortfall will the word drought stop being used?
Have a great weekend!!
Good question Greenstein. I believe some meteorologists will quit using the term when we are within 10″, but climatologists will wait much longer. But the real answer will come when there is adequate ground moisture. Right now, depending where you are, there is zero or very near zero sub-surface ground moisture available for crops. Coupled with the chance of any real precipitation in the next 2 months is why the US Dept. of Agriculture issued a disaster area for most of the middle of the country. There is not any ground moisture to support crops or livestock at this time and won’t be for quite some time. The three year period has devastated agriculture and everyone is definitely being effected by now. Historically droughts last about 3 years after which we start recovery. Lets hope that is what will happen some time in late spring.
the weather channel is picking up something for kc for next Friday, here is a link to what they are saying of maybe a winter storm.
http://www.weather.com/video/who-could-see-snow-next-week-33850
brad
What is the lowest temperature so far for this winter?
Kole,
It was 7 on December 26th.
Jeff
Let the talk begin! GFS is starting to show a significant storm for the last week of January. Sure, it is 252 hours out but something to spark some excitement. It appears to be negatively tilted and will be taking a good track from the southwest and not getting sheared out, at least at this point. Looks to be very well organized with a strong center of low and very dynamic. It seems the LRC is right on! Gary, any thoughts?
dpollard,
See October 18th!
Jeff
dpollard,
Yep, let’s hope when 252 hours go by, it’s still there.
I wouldn’t give up on Thursday/Friday this week, just a bit slower on that wave and we could see some moisture. Jeff, do you see any possibility there??
mowermike,
I am going to say no more than a period of mist, if that.
Jeff
18z GFS does continue to point to that storm. Very consistent in showing .75-1.0 for us over the past four or so runs. I noticed that each run is warmer but at this point I’ll be happy with any precip type!