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Great Fall Weather then Changes

Good Monday bloggers,

The weather has calmed down and we are in for some great fall weather through Friday.  There is a tremendous amount of jet stream energy racing across the Pacific Ocean and this is a sign of some major pattern changes as the new cycling pattern evolves.

Let’s go through the nice weather, then the changes.

TONIGHT: Lows will be in the 40s, about 10 degrees warmer than Monday morning. This is right about where we should be for this time of year.

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TUESDAY: This will be a terrific Tuesday with near perfect temperatures in the low 70s and a south breeze at 5-15 mph.

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WEDNESDAY: There is very little change in the weather, just a few degrees warmer, which means a wonderful Wednesday.  A cold front to the west will fall apart as it moves east. The wind will be from the south to southwest at 10-25 mph, so a bit more of a breeze than Tuesday.

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This is a satellite image of the Pacific Ocean Monday afternoon. You can see the stream of clouds from Japan to Canada indicating a strong west to east jet stream.  Some of this energy will become a trough near the west coast by Thursday.  This trough will then move into the Plains and Midwest this weekend, changing our weather.  The jet stream will remain strong into the weekend and next week.  This will lead to a major pattern change in about 10 days and this will be a big player in the 2018-19 LRC.

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This is the upper level flow for Friday and you can see a trough in the western USA with a big ridge in the eastern USA.  This means we will see the dry and warm weather east of the Rockies through Friday and then the trough will move east increasing rain chances.  There is uncertainty in the pattern after Saturday as the system may break into two pieces.  One will race east across the Great Lakes and fall apart.  The second piece may form a closed low in the southern Plains.  If this happens, clouds and rain may persist south of I-70 Sunday and Monday.

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The end of week storm system will bring some rain to northern California, but the trend is towards much less amounts and coverage.  I guess a little is better than nothing.

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As the storm system crosses the Rockies it will interact with Gulf of Mexico moisture and the rain coverage and amounts will increase and heavy rain is possible this weekend from eastern Oklahoma to eastern Kansas to Iowa and western Wisconsin. We will be updating this and all of the changes in the coming days this week.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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