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Weekend weather goes through a drastic change

Hey!

Have you liked the 70s the last couple of days?  Today we get one more 70-degree afternoon.  Tomorrow morning the temperatures take a Sunday Dive and we will get some rain.  Before we get into that, I want to remind you that this will be the final weekend to win Aerosmith tickets for Weekend Weather Trivia.  Here’s the question, and it has to deal with a term you’ve likely heard a lot about over the past week:


Nor’easters.  If you want to take a stab at this question (and the Aerosmith tix) just
Go to kshb.com/contests
Click on Weekend Weather Trivia
…then enter your selection.

As for the warmer than average weather.  Our record high for today’s date is 77° and it’s definitely in jeopardy today.  During the 5pm news we’ll break the news if we break the record…then we’ll break down the cold blast coming.  The most dramatic weather changes of the weekend will be between 6am and 12 pm tomorrow morning:

We need rain…and we’ll gladly take the 1/2″ – 1″ that will accompany the cold blast…but it won’t be pleasant outside tomorrow around noon.  Notice that as Sunday’s morning temperatures drop, we also see the majority of any weekend rain. 

Many are wondering… “Will it get cold enough to snow as the rain tapers off?”
The answer: Very unlikely in KC.  Here’s why:

This is the GFS forecast model for noon tomorrow.  Green represents areas where precipitation would be rain.  Blue represents areas that would be snow.  Yellow and red: freezing rain and sleet.  Tomorrow, for KC, the rain appears to end before it gets a chance to change over into snow.  So the thing is, even though we drop into the upper 30s for the early afternoon, the rain would end before we get cold enough to snow.   Especially considering precipitation may finish in KC by 2:30pm Sunday.

Farther off to the north, near the Iowa state line and beyond, are the regions where a transition to snow is more likely as the precipitation ends Sunday.  Maryville, you have an outside shot for some snowflakes! 

Yesterday morning’s computer models were very “anti-snow”, but when the afternoon updates came in, they looked a little “snowier” in KC.  So check back in at 5pm and we’ll let you know if any of these forecast thoughts have changed.

I hope you enjoy today’s warm (and windy) weather!

-GW

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15 comments to Weekend weather goes through a drastic change

  • Kole Christian

    If you insult the Kansas City fan, you weren’t there for #BooCano
    Gary,
    Could you, (just for fun) give percentages of the likelyhood of seeing flakes, and the chance of getting an inch?

  • sedsinkc

    This wind and rain should ensure that just about all the leaves will be down by Monday morning (except the oaks, of course). Then can get serious about cleanup.

  • sedsinkc

    New data not looking good for snow lovers. :(

  • sedsinkc

    KCI rainfall deficit for 2012 reaches 16.19 inches today. Perhaps this is the largest it will get for the rest of the year?

  • davidmcg

    Today brings us one more and our final chance for severe weather this year, along with the 237TH Birthday of the USMC. Potential for rapidly developing severe weather along with fast moving tornadoes in central and North Kansas this afternoon. look for storms to develop and rapidly intensify near Hutchinson and move NNE and NE. Anybody running out there today? Sprinkles off and on here in McLouth all morning with winds gusting up to 30 knots.

  • Hockeynut69

    Just had about 23 sprinkles west of Liberty. The pump is now primed. Lol

  • hobart

    Here we go again. The closer the front gets, the smaller the predicted rain totals get. Earlier today, we were looking at 1 to 2″ Now it’s 1/2 to 1″. A half inch isn’t enough to make any difference. The ground is bone dry. That half inch will be gone in less than 24 hours. Oh well, by six o’clock, it will probably be cut to 0.10″
    Why do meteorologists persist in predicting rain totals? They rarely pan out.

  • Skylar

    So all the positive trends from yesterday were just a lie? :(

  • Emaw

    @Skylar, never trust the models they’re too high maintenance, and I hear the Euros don’t shave!

  • McCabe58

    Some pretty strong storms for November in Kansas right now headed this way!

  • mowermike

    Williston ND set a record high of 85 yesterday according to the NWS
    Now, 12 degrees and better then a foot of snow on the ground…..what????
    Is that right George? Hey, heading to your hood, going to dinner at PF Changs….come have a drink before the 10:00 news

  • RickMckc

    At last … rain!

  • thundercolt

    let it rain let it rain!!!