Good morning bloggers!
Cold? It froze again this morning. For:
KCI this was the fifth freeze of the season.
Downtown this was the second freeze and coldest morning so far of the season. Below is a map of the overnight low temperatures.
These morning lows are roughly 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year.
Also, it was a cold enough this morning that our friends at the Snow Creek Ski hill in Weston turned on some of the snowmakers! The Rugged Maniac Adventure Race was going on today. Does that sound like fun, running through snow before Halloween?
Grab your skis and meet me on the slopes!
Batman Live Anyone? If you know the answer to this question, you could win tix to the Batman Action Arena Adventure at the Sprint Center.
How’s your memory?
To enter, you have to go to kshb.com…click on the weekend weather trivia icon at the top of the page and follow the directions.
Sandy. You’ll here a lot more of this name over the next 4 days.
How bad will it be?
Where will it hit?
Will it impact the presidential election?
Here’s what Hurricane Sandy looked like as a Category One Hurricane at 9:45 am Saturday.
While Sandy was downgraded to a tropical storm overnight, it had strengthened back to the point of hurricane status Saturday morning. At this point, tropical storm warnings spanned from south Florida through the North Carolina coast…and farther north off the shore of Delaware. Tropical storm winds were already nearing the North Carolina coast as the storm reports showed a maximum sustained wind within Sandy of 75mph. Notice, there’s no visible eye in this storm. According to the American Meteorological Society, tropical storms with maximum winds greater than 90 mph generally (but not always) have a discernable eye in the visible satellite picture.
You’ve likely heard a lot of “we’re still not exactly when and where Sandy will make landfall” remarks by newsmen and women. This is because of the wide range of solutions shown by various models. See below, each computer model shows a trajectory for Sandy shown by the different colors/symbols below:
One of the reasons for the high degree of variability is the complex interaction with the flow of the atmosphere. In particular, a trough (and a shortwave traveling through this trough) in the upper level flow pattern that currently sits over the central US will help to draw Sandy back in toward the US while it would more normally take a northeastward path—out to sea. While Sandy may weaken slightly today, possibly back down to tropical storm status, it could strengthen back up before it makes landfall.
The General average of these forecast tracks tends to converge at a landfall between the Delmarva Peninsula and Long Island Monday night/Tuesday morning. Check out this morning’s latest NAM forecast for Monday at 7pm:
One possible solution of many, but this would suggest a landfall just south of NYC. Remember, with tropical storms, the greatest storm surge and strongest winds are typically in the right front quadrant. In this case, that would be in NYC. But again, this is one many possible scenarios and I’m not trying to over scare anyone. It will, however, be fascinating to see how NYC prepares for this storm. Especially considering last year Mayor Bloomberg evacuated parts of NYC for last year’s Hurricane Irene. After it passed, many considered it a bust for the NYC metro. It is important to realize that Irene did produce immense damage in other areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast
The below map shows the forecast for the flow pattern later next week.
The lingering low (what’s left of Sandy) is still dominant over the northeast… and it helps amplify our ridging pattern further west (i.e. the orangey yellow bump from Kansas to Utah). This may help enhance warming over KC later in the week…i’ve gone 70 by next Friday.
I’ll have another look tonight at 5pm…see you then!