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Frost or freeze is possible

FREEZE WARNING LATER TONIGHT for areas just north and northeast of Kansas City!

Good morning bloggers,

We will be at the Nebraska Furniture Mart Saturday from noon until 3 PM for Weather Awareness Day. We hope to see you there, and you can meet our #1 storm chase team, Intercept Images (Leslie and Dean Burton) as well. They will have their chase vehicle for you to check out. Will we be having severe thunderstorms this weekend? Let’s check out this developing weather pattern in this morning’s blog entry.

A cool air mass is continuing to settle into the plains states this morning and a strong storm is developing near the west coast.  The energy from this western storm will begin affecting us soon, but first we have to deal with a possible frost or freeze tonight.  The last freeze officially occurred at KCI Airport on March 10th and this would tie the earliest last freeze in KC recorded history……if we don’t have a freeze tonight, which may be our last chance of one this season:

The National Weather Service has issued a FREEZE WARNING for later tonight for areas just north and northeast of Kansas City.  Take a look at this morning’s 7 AM surface map:

I plotted in the freeze line, the dashed blue line.  Tonight that could dip all the way down to south of Kansas City as high pressure builds in from the north. This next map shows the 6 PM surface forecast:

The center of high pressure is forecast to track out of southern Canada into the northern United States.  The blued jagged line is the center of the high pressure ridge extending from the center of the high pressure area southeast to northern Mississippi.  We haven’t had a freeze in a month. March 10th would tie the earliest last freeze ever recorded in Kansas City history, but there is a decent chance we could drop to 32 degrees tonight. A hard freeze would happen in areas that drop to 28 degrees or lower and this will likely happen across portions of northern Missouri.  You can click on this map for a larger view.

A front is stalling over the western and southern plains and a strong storm is approaching the western United States. As the Pacific jet stream energy moves out into the plains states later in the week our severe weather risk will increase. Every six hours we have been getting very different solutions and I am going to wait to analyze the new data later this morning before I post any maps.  For now, the biggest concern is this possible freeze tonight. I will write up a new blog later this afternoon or evening, so check back in.  This next storm is directly related to the part of the weather pattern that produced the big tornado outbreak in early March over the Tennessee Valley. It has had my attention for weeks already and it is going to affect our region and areas to our east during the next seven days. We will go over more specific detail soon.

Have a great day and let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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15 comments to Frost or freeze is possible

  • R-Dub

    Midnight…temp around 50, dewpoint >32…don’t think it’s going to freeze. Or even come close to freezing.

  • mowermike

    R-Dub,

    Plenty of rain coming, don’t worry about dry. You have missed the big big, rains, but up in Clay/Platte counties, we have had enough and soil isn’t to bad as of now. Grass slowed, but still flying for this time of year. Clay soils are dry as usual, but black dirt still moist in areas up here just below the soil top. That’s why you always bring in good black dirt before sodding. Most builders don’t, they try to grow grass on left over concrete, 2×4’s gravel, etc… oh yeah, clay too

    2-3 inches looks likely by early next week. Maybe some interesting thunderstorms too….

    Gary, heading to Vegas this summer, hopefully you left me some change.

    • Yes, you can pick up the change when you get there. And, yes, this is a very wet pattern. We just missed most of the rain around last week’s slow moving storm. This next one is just one of many chances.

  • calikufan

    So looking at the NAM on Thursday into Friday…I’m getting very anxious for this weekend.

    I mean the SPC has had our area or just west of our area in an OUTLOOK for the last 2 days. I have never seen a non-major severe weather event that was forecasted 6 days out. (No, I am not trying to scare anyone. Just laying out the facts)

    I know that we must wait to see if any crapvection messes with the set-up and timing issues, but man, the LLJ on Saturday into Sunday is crazy. The upper-air dynamics are 85-100kts, combined with 2-3k instability.

  • sportsfreaked

    Gary you keep saying this setup is the one that produced the tornado outbreak in March and yet it will only be 30 days at the most this weekend from the March episode. If the LRC is 45-50 days then how can this be?

    • nbell_13

      The tornado outbreak was March 2nd. This weekend will be April 14th and 15th. That’s pretty much right at 45 days.

  • Weatherfreak01

    What was with the clouds yesterday afternoon/evening? I worked in Lenexa yesterday and I watched first cottonball clouds (that is what I call them, small round clouds that generally mean change) and those built into real clouds and by the time I left work at 5:30 it almost looked like it was thinking about raining. I tried to get on the blog yesterday and ask but for some reason it would not load.

  • yewtrees

    According to the National Weather Service, strong storms could happen on Friday to the west of the metro. The NWS is keeping an eye on the metro for possible severe storms on Saturday.

  • calikufan

    Gary…any thoughts that you’d like to share that you won’t on air?

  • mgsports

    http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/66062 Friday Yes and Saturday maybe for Strong Storms.

  • mukustink

    All you severe weather wish casters calm down will you. The models are all over the place with this system (imagine that). I am sure at some point you you severe weather wishcaters will have your prayers answered and there will be hail and wind and tornadoes and destruction all the things that get you excited.

  • calikufan

    Oh shush muku…I’ve been chasing for 6 years. I’ve seen greensburg and Joplin. No one is wishing for destruction. A tornado is a beautiful thing in open country.

  • mukustink

    Like you, I saw Joplin on TV as well, as well as Greensburg. You can’t tell me you have only been chasing for 6 years and saw 2 F4-F5 tornadoes. People have chased for 20 years and have never seen a F4-F5. The word pinocchio comes to mind Mr. Calikufan.

  • calikufan

    Ok buddy you are correct, when I had to take shelter in a freezer of a gas station because I couldn’t get behind it in Ellsworth Kansas when that storm barely clipped me I wasn’t there. And the cow body parts the morning after were all in my head And when I had baseball size hail hit my car just southeast of Pittsburg on the Kansas/Missouri, watching it morph into a monster i was just seeing a beautiful blue sky. Storm chasing is 50% skill and 50% luck. I’ve driven hundreds of miles to see hail or even just lightning. I take it you’ve never been out before.

    Btw, good luck with Bruce webber.