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Friday’s Not So Exciting Weather Thoughts

Good morning, It’s Friday!

I am late in getting today’s blog entry started.  There is still not one storm showing up on the long range models.  Just based on the LRC, we should have at least a good chance of some precipitation before the end of this month, and then February will have a few good chances, but for now we get to talk about a nice warm-up, and then a cold blast by the end of the weekend:

We are forecasting a high of 57° today. The cold front will take until Saturday night to get here and as a result it will likely get close to 60° on Saturday before the wind shift arrives:

Some Lake-Effect snow is likely, and a little system will produce snow in Montana into the Dakota’s, but we will just get a strong push of cold air by Sunday morning.  The first cold front comes through Saturday evening, and then a reinforcing shot of colder air will organize and arrive by Monday:

Have a great morning. We will go over the details of this forecast on 41 Action News. And, we will look ahead to February as well.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

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40 comments to Friday’s Not So Exciting Weather Thoughts

  • Emaw

    It looks like the winds won’t be to bad with this next brief shot of cold air . . . Good!

  • paxman

    Thanks Gary for continuing to produce the finest weather blog in KC!!! We love listening to you on Sports Radio 810 every morning as well. This morning you mentioned on WHB that there is a possible storm showing up 20 days from now. Here on the blog you state that there is no storm showing up on the long range models. Can you tell me what you’re thinking about our next possible chance of precip ? Thank You.

    • I think there is a chance before the end of the month, but on the overnight GFS model nothing showed up for us. I am very confident that February will produce three or four storms that will bring us precipitation, which is just normal for February anyway, but it is still a struggle. We are in such a dry weather pattern.

  • Fred Souder

    Gary,
    It looks like you posted the same map twice. Was one of those bottom maps supposed to be something different?

  • yewtrees

    As you stated, “based on the LRC, we should have at least a good chance of some precipitation before the end of this month”. But there is nothing showing up on the long range comp models. Is LRC losing grip?

    • No, that’s one point of the LRC. It picks out the storms before the models do.

      • yewtrees

        Then, why do you still heavily depend on the models to forecast the future storms? By the way, LRC is based on the weather patterns that have previously formed.

        • Yew,

          I don’t depend heavily on the computer models. I have stated all along that we expect a potential storm in here near the end of the month. That forecast was not based on any computer model, but on the LRC.

          • I see the GFS is showing your storm for the end of the month. But so many have gone “poof”, it’s hard to believe we’ll see it. Sure hope you are right!

  • rred95

    I cant find your winter forcast but was wondering if Chicago was a hot spot for snow this year in your long range winter forcast. Chicago hasnt had an inch of snow this year. I think alabama has had more snow than Chicago! Unbelievable.

    • yewtrees

      Here is the link to LRC hot spots “http://weatherblog.kshb.com/lrc-hot-spots/#comments”

      LRC is not behaving well this year if you believe it!!!

      • I think the hot spots have been pretty much on. The one to the north through the Great Lakes could be tightened up a bit, but it has been an active area. Chicago keeps getting missed, but they should get hit in February. The snowflake contest, if they had one, would still be going on in Chicago. That is just hard to believe.

  • mowermike

    yewtrees,

    What part are you talking about that isn’t behaving. I do see the hot spot for Chicago is off, but the other two are right so far(east coast one and the Pacific NW one) plus, the winter forecast did show below average precip. from KC westward. This seems to be on track so far.(along ways to go on all of this)

    Winter forecast also said that it would be a tough pattern for KC to have wet systems. So far So good(unfortunately)Snowfall average of 14 inches, (still a wait and see on this)

    • yewtrees

      Mike. Don’t go there! How are you going to explain all the winter storms that missed us and went to the south. Like rred95 said “alabama has had more snow than Chicago”. I am waiting for the “Sandy” weather pattern to return to east coast in a week or so to validate LRC.

      • mowermike

        I was speaking of the winter forecast for KC. It’s on track right?

        Yes, we do have another hot spot that has been to the South of us and up through the Tennessee valley up to the NE. That was not shown as a “hot spot” but the above average precip. shade of green was shown for the area of the Tennesse Valley. So, I guess you could say the winter forecast did anticipate many storms in this area.

    • rred95

      I agree the winter forcast for KC is on track so far. (which is what we care about)And Chicago could get bombed in february. Lot of winter left so cant say any long range winter forcast is off yet.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Awfully quiet across entire States weather wise. Just a system in the Great Lakes. Looks really quiet until the 22nd across entire US.

  • Emaw

    What is the target date for the “Sandy” pattern to return? By the way we gain 38mins. Of daylight between and mid February and another 34 mins. By the end of February , that’s sweet!

  • dogsinkc

    I’m tired of these ‘nice’ warm-ups. Are we still supposed to get that big Arctic outbreak on the 25th you’ve been mentioning for a month?

    • We aren’t seeing any Arctic blasts, just strong cold fronts. One of them will move through Sunday, but it won’t last long. There will be a chance of an Arctic blast behind three different February storm systems. But, if the flow doesn’t block up over Canada the coldest air will continue up in Canada.

  • Emaw

    Looks like the storm that is showing up for end of the month is in the form of rain, that would be sweet!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      I’m actually seeing chance of rain on 28th and snow on 29-30. Of course long way out but would be nice to get both forms of precip.

  • sedsinkc

    The weather here is so boring I’ve started tracking the sun’s daily altitude above the horizon here and comparing it to what it was on the winter solstice. Today in Kansas City, the sun at its high point about 1 hour ago was 30.6 degrees above the horizon, or 3.1 degrees higher than it was on Dec. 21. Zzzzzzz….

  • sedsinkc

    A factoid that may only interest me during this boring stretch of weather. 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States at 55.32 degrees F. The coldest year on record for the contiguous United States was 1917, when the average temperature nationally was 50.11 degrees F. These national records date back to 1895. Many kinds of (possibly) interesting weather statistics can be obtained on the National Climatic Data Center’s website, some of them for free.

    • Fred Souder

      They might be redacting that 2012 record, as it disagrees with another data set within the NCDC (oops!). Probably stay top five, though.

      • sedsinkc

        That is interesting. How long will it be until NCDC publicly acknowledges the error and posts the corrected information about last year’s temps?

  • mowermike

    Seds,

    Its not that boring, windy today and I saw 4 clouds go by…..

    I believe the SW train of Pacific storms will start rolling again soon, ya know the ones that have missed us to the south and east, this time, KC’s turn. Feb. and March won’t be boring.

    We will end up with more then 18 inches of snow…book that!! I give it a 50% chance that someone close by ends up with 25 inches.
    Should be a fun end to winter. There’s going to be one storm between now and March 20th where the northern stream and the southern stream meet up for a drink here in KC, that storm will be the fun one.

    Waiting on the parade of storms…………………

  • mowermike

    My reasoning… this pattern has been loaded with storms to our south and east, just need a little nudge north with the jet steam and we here in KC will get those storms the next time through.
    Book it bloggers……now!!

    • sedsinkc

      I like your reasoning, but if you look at where the precip from these storms has been the heaviest, by and large that region is east of Kansas City. If that translates due north, we’ll still get missed because the storms will start generating precip when they get to our east. Remember, that’s what happened during the fall.

    • sedsinkc

      …Except about 1 storm per month developed far enough west to give us some decent precip. Guess we’ll hope for that.

  • luvsno

    I do not agree that the winter forecast hot spots have been spot on, except for the KC area. I have family that live in Minneapolis and New Jersey (30 miles south of Newark). The MN family has not seen anywhere near their average snowfall yet. And the ONLY accumulating snow that the Jersey family has had was the snowfall after Sandy. Althought they have had some rain since then, it has been too warm for snow. The family in Jersey really wants the snow. The only snow they had last year (2011) was the freak snowstorm right before Halloween. So, 2 yrs in a row Halloween basically canceled by freak storms.

  • numbers

    I’m in Salina. It’s 64 degrees. Same temperature as Miami, Fl right now.

  • lstanley59

    Hi Gary,
    Just a quick observation. I enjoy watching your weather casts in the evening. Because of my job, I always pay attention the sunset time on your channel. For quite some time, it has been incorrect. This week especially it keeps showing 5:09, which I believe its more like 5:25. It is typically right on the morning forecast, but always off in the evening. The sunrise is typically accurate.
    You all do a great job and I always get my weather forecast from your team.
    I am hoping for some weather in February. Thanks for all you do.

  • Jerry

    For what it’s worth, the GFS does indeed have a storm showing up around the 30th,. I don’t really agree with your assessment of none showing on the models. I assume that seed was planted in the post so that if a storm does appear, it can be claimed an LRC success rather than model-based forecast.

    • Skylar

      This isn’t the same thing as what the models are showing for the 30th, but Gary did say the storm that brought us our first snow should return. If this comes true, it definitely wasn’t because of the models.

      “http://i.imgur.com/BqaXf57.jpg”

    • Jerry,

      One of these days I would love it if you realized I don’t do that. I just would like to see a storm. This is really a boring pattern.

      Gary

  • Greenstein

    Extremely windy conditions persist at 159th and Antioch in southern Overland Park

  • Kcchamps

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_264_10m_wnd_precip.gif”

    would be cool if this verified :) 6z GFS