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Friday thoughts

Good morning,

    It still looks like we are going to get a cold blast of air on Sunday, finally giving us a taste of cold December weather.  Remember, Monday of this week we set a record high when we reached 74 degrees.  We have seen a lot of unusually warm weather this year and when we take all the highs and lows and average them together 2012 is on pace to be the warmest year since weather records were kept.  Below is a graphic of the top 5 warmest years through December 5th.

  There are some indications that the second half of the month will be very cold at times.  But will it be cold enough to drop us out of the top 5 for the year?  What do you think?  

  As for snow, there is still a chance for some flurries Sunday afternoon but it won’t accumulate.  I came across this interesting graphic in our archives and thought today was a good chance to share it with it you.  What are the chances we could experience a blizzard here in Kansas City?  The graphic below shows the average annual chance based on 30-years of climatology. 

   As you can see, according to climatology, we have between a 2 and 12-percent chance in any given year of having a blizzard.  A blizzard is defined as

                      *considerable falling and or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to less than a quarter mile.

                      *with sustained winds of 35 miles an hour or greater lasting 3 hours or more.

It is no surprise to see the northern plains and upper Missouri River Valley in the 50% to 76% range.  

But to have snow we have to have a chance of precipitation and we are stuck in a drought that is now approaching 200 days.  The latest drought monitor was released earlier this week and while the dry conditions have eased in some parts of the Missouri, it continues in Kansas.

   Here is the Missouri graphic.

 

   As you can see the Kansas City area remains in a moderate to severe drought.   South and east of Kansas City, in the past few weeks, there has been more rain and that is why the drought concerns are easing just a bit.

   Now on to the Kansas side.

    If you follow the key you can tell the entire state of Kansas is either in a severe, extreme or exceptional drought. Except for one small area of Bourbon and Crawford counties.  By the way,  Our in house computer model spits out a whopping .09″ of an inch of rain that falls along the strong cold front early Sunday morning.  Keep soaking those house foundations.  A friend of mine told me that his foundation is beginning to crack so even though its not hot, its still dry and the drought continues to cause problems.

Have a great weekend!

Brett

 

 

 

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49 comments to Friday thoughts

  • Brett,I bet it,s become very difficult to come up with a different blog each day,with this monotonous(had to look that word up to spell correctly) wx. pattern we,re in…

  • “Winter Weather Advisory?” The 12Z GFS is indicating a freezing rain,sleet,to a lite accumulating snowfall storm the 14th-15th of Dec…. A 1/4-1/5 in. of ice w/an 1 in. of snow… Guess who predicted a Dec. 14th 1 inch,or > of snow on that day…Anyone?,,,,Anyone?… A KSHB Met.?…That,s correct …Gary Lezak….Farris Bueller ROCKS!!!!

  • weatherman brad

    Its getting closer to my pick, i guessed Dec 20th so we will see what happens 5-6 days ahead of lezaks pick.

    Brad

    • Remember that the GFS,usually over prescribes QPF totals…The new 12Z ECMWF has many comparisons w/ the GFS…A winter storm is becoming more likly next fri./sat. Kevin

    • As for anything beyond that date is a total guess….

      • R-Dub

        So, you feel confident on specific details of a forecast 7 days out…but anything past that is a “total guess.” LOL.

        Good thing I already have my snow shovel ready for this weekend!

        • It be better said that I have a marginal bit of confidence that we will receive prec.by the GFS forecast(50/50),but the EC does not paint as bullish of an outlook…the ECs surface low is not as deep as the american model…With all that said,and it being a week away……….I,m not sold yet….And beyond that storm,????

  • Kole Christian

    About 5-6 inches for late next week. Sunday’s storm pretty much went poof.
    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    • Kole,,,The 850mb temps.are to warm(WAA) for snow during its peak out-put over the metro,as per the GFS/EC…Looks more like Sleet/Freezing rain,than a change over to snow,at this time…The 950mb & surface temps.do stay below freezing though

  • R-Dub

    Wow, 50-75% chance of blizzard each year? All those on this blog begging for blizzards…move north.

    • RickMckc

      It’s fascinating that the percentage rises so sharply once you get into NW Missouri.

      We should proabably all look at that graphic everytime the models tell us a huge snowstorm is coming … just to keep things in perspective.

      • R-Dub

        We’ve long joked in our office about how the Iowa line is like the arctic circle…the climo does get more wintry right about there, or maybe a county or two south.

        But I’m wondering if this graphic might have an error and the 13-24% color is supposed to be there in Northern Mo.

        • R-Dub

          I’m also a little skeptical about the low % downwind of Lake Michigan…those areas sure get a lot more snow than we do to have the same blizzard chance.

  • Kole Christian

    Tush, that sounds more like the indredients for an ice storm…we need the moisture though

  • Lezak….Lezak….Lezak????

  • Farmgirl…Farmgirl…Farmgirl…

  • McCabe58

    Last years winter taught me to be patient and never expect anything. So this year, which looks to be shaping up to be a lot like last year… I’m going with the approach of not expecting anything and being surprised when we actually get something. This way I can never really be let down. I sure do miss coming on here tracking possible big storms with other bloggers that might hit us. :( zonal flow sucks!

  • weatherman brad

    Wait, what emails. I never recived them.

    Brad

  • R-Dub

    Are any of those rain showers on radar reaching the ground?

  • Theo

    14 drops in south OP.

    Good blog Brett. Yes, we will NOT have the warmest year in recorded history. Quite possible it will fall out of the top 5.

  • storm00

    Chopper for your information Miky is a loser . I don’t believe anyone on here has a problem with saying it to his face. But remember get your shovels ready!

    • chopperHD

      Storm…now why on earth would you go on here and join in with the other trolls? I have yet to see Mike actually initiate an attack of which, I have seen others do it so in my humble opinion, would make him just the opposite.

      At any rate, I agree with you on the shovel comment, I have learned over the years that the weather can change in an instant. Countless times, I have seen where no/little snow has been predicted and we were dumped on and just the opposite. I think wionter may have a few surprises in store for us this year……….or atleast hope.

      • mukustink

        Really? Then you can’t read very well. The shovel comment was made because Mikey predicted that we would need them and we won’t need them.

        • chopperHD

          MU…we all predict things that don’t happen the only difference is some people look at it as an opportunity to sling mud at one another. Im not defending Mike as a person because I don’t know him personally, I am making a point that for a weather blog, there sure are a lot of unnecessary attacks.

          moreover, what is even more surprising to me is that folks have not learned from the past. Anybody can hide behind a fictional name but there are always ways to determine a persons true identity as has been done in the past and when there is constant personal attacks, people tend to become unstable again…its happened many times where “internet bullying” has ended badly. So my question to you and anybody else who seems to get some kind of enjoyment out of personal attacks, why on earth would you even take a chance? Think of your own families and try to act like mature human beings to one another!

          Its a weather blog for crying out loud.

          • At ease Francis…So you think you know “everyones” name who pisses you off on this blog…sounds like your Inferior disorder complex is showing again…

      • mowermike

        Chopper,

        It’s just funny, day after day, week after week, month after month, I tell them to show up and say the same things….still to date, their internet talkers…bottom line

        It’s a shame too, because I do like talking weather and interacting with the majority of the people on here, atleast I use too. Now, it’s a mess with 3-4 bad people. We have lost a lot of good weather folks due to these people. Maybe if I stop posting, they will stop all there jive talk.

        Still waiting on one of the talkers to actually show up and talk the same way to me in person as they do on here….I’m sure I’ll continue to wait.

        So long talkers, if you decide to actually walk one day, let me know. Time to move on, talking to a bunch of cowards just isn’t all that fun.

        • What,s your address,and phone #

        • Eh Mike, don’t let these fools(or actually fool) run you off. I like your incite on the maps. What I find funny, is how secure some people feel hiding behing their keyboard. I guess they don’t realize how vulnerable their identity actually is. I agree Chopper, these personaly attacks have to stop!

  • mowermike

    Nick(storm00)

    Yet to have any of the talkers on here do it….until then, you do have a problem with doing so.

    Just the facts…

  • mukustink

    Did anyone see the article in the Star about the potential shake ups at 41 with this new president/GM?

  • mukustink

    I am predicting that the drought will last thru 2013. I think next fall,(September October), we will see some more substantial precip. If I am wrong I’m sure Mikey will let us know by saving this and reposting in Sept Oct of 2013 :)
    Have a great weekend!

  • storm00

    I don’t believe I know the nick you speak up, is this someone you have wronged in the past? Anyways I just see your post about always wanting to do things face to face . I think it’s funny because this isn’t high school where you call someone out to the school yard.

  • RickMckc

    Man, this back and forth crap is getting old.

    • JohnNCWX

      You’re right, Rick. There used to be much more weather discussion but it seems to have been overrun by sophomoric shenanigans of late. I think the blog became a long running advertisement for Gary’s theory and kinda lost a little punch for a while, but Brett is bringing it back to relevance and I enjoy his commentary! Bring on winter!

  • I don’t see much back and forth. I see constant attacks by a yp, who has multiple sign-ons. Same IP. We just need a moderator. I don’t blame Mike one bit for standing his ground. He’s ignored many a flame, to his credit.