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Friday Morning Thunderstorms

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is rather fascinating this morning.  As a tropical storm is about to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico off the Yucatan Peninsula coast in the next couple of days, Kansas has experienced a couple of slow moving upper level disturbances drifting across the Sunflower state.  At 9 PM last night, seen below, there were two of these disturbances. One of them was over southeastern Kansas and weakening, while a very well formed one, that appeared to have a little “eye” in the middle was over western Kansas.

Radar 4 PM Yesterday

While you were sleeping, this disturbance drifted east and by 4:30 AM, the western Kansas system had sent an outflow boundary east all the way to Kansas City this morning. The disturbance was still alive with a weak circulation just east of Salina, KS.  Thunderstorms formed over Kansas City early this morning and over 3″ of rain have fallen over parts of Jackson county, near Blue Springs Missouri.  This area has been very dry, but not any more. That was a lot of rain, and it was still adding up with more thunderstorms generating as the sun was about to rise.

Screen Shot 2018-05-25 at 4.25.44 AM

Let us know how much rain you received, and I will add in the totals here:

  • Lee’s Summit, MO: 3.47″
  • Olathe, KS:  1.74″
  • Overland Park, KS:  1.00″
  • KCI Airport:  0.56″

Memorial Day Weekend Forecast:

  • There is still a chance of lingering showers and thunderstorms today.  Then, the rest of the holiday weekend looks to be mostly sunny with only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm all weekend.  High in the upper 80s today, then lower 90s on Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day.  Get that sunscreen ready!

The Tropics:

Continental US - Shortwave Window - IR

The first thing you should look for to find out if there will be a tropical storm developing is the amount of thunderstorms near the center of low level circulation.  Last night, thunderstorms, convection, intensified right near where there is a broad surface circulation. These thunderstorms release a lot of heat through the condensation process. When there is condensation latent heat is released, and this was happening big time early this morning. This will likely ignite more organization from this system. The water is still a bit cool as it is only May, but conditions are becoming favorable for development.  This next map shows the more organized circulation, likely Tropical Storm Alberto by early Sunday morning.  It is approaching the southeast coast, almost in the exact spot we forecasted this to be in late May months ago.  This part of the pattern will cycle back through two more times during hurricane season in mid-July and late August or early September.  We are forecasting a strong to major hurricane in one or both of these next two cycles. This is near the middle of the forecast hot spot for tropical storm season we issued months ago.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here to join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog as we share in this weather experience:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day, and let us know if  you have any questions.

Gary

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