Good morning bloggers,
The dry weather pattern just goes on and on. We are forecasting a more active month ahead with some better chances for precipitation. Our next chance will arrive soon and here is a graphic I showed last night at 10 PM.
The models have not been very good at predicting this pattern past day four or five. They have had an occasional success, but this is where the LRC comes in to help. This first map shows the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up) from December 10th:
This was the beginning of an energetic last few weeks of December when we actually had our two small snow events and a little bit of rain. If the exact same thing happens in the next month it will at least be fun to track, but it will still leave us rather dry as we move into spring. This is a very big concern. I will be having our spring forecast on February 27th on 41 Action News. This map, on the left, shows a rather broad trough that did produce a major snowstorm over Minnesota last month.
This second map is a forecast valid 00z January 31st or 52 days after the first map. We are in a cycling pattern, according to the LRC, that has been between 50 and 55 days. Last nights GFS model (06z run) can be thrown out. Some previous GFS models have had this pattern picked out pretty well. Last nights European model just happened to pick up on the pattern. The previous European models have been failing miserably on predicting this pattern. But, this last nights version of the ECMWF is almost identical at day 9 to what is likely going to set up as the big picture next week.
There will be as storm developing next week, but how much of an impact will it have on our area? In the last cycle, this storm only produced 0.02″ at KCI airport and a decent cold front. It was followed by three active and somewhat wet storm systems in the three weeks that followed this previous cycles storm. Let’s see how it sets up this time.
Now, I am talking about the big, overall weather pattern. Other waves can get caught in the flow and produce storm systems and potentially some of our heaviest winter precipitation. One of these systems did show up on last nights GFS model, but do we believe it? If it’s right, then we would have a heavy precipitation event around Saturday night or Sunday, but I am not sure I buy that potential yet. Remember, I believe the GFS completely failed after this shorter term wave, so it leaves that wet weekend system as very suspect at the moment.
Have a great morning. We will go over the details of this developing weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.