Florence Update and Our Next Chance of Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

Florence made landfall Friday morning around 7 AM near Wilmington, NC as a category 1. As we have been saying, wind has been an issue, but the rain is going to be a huge problem.

These are the wind observations from 8 AM Saturday. On land the wind was 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Look at the 40-50 mph wind gusts offshore on the buoys. The wind is always higher on the water as the surface has less friction. Now, the sea-land difference is less now as Florence is much weaker.


This is a very colorful map and it represents radar estimated rainfall totals  since Wednesday morning. How much rain do these colors represent?  See below.


The highest totals we can find, so far, are between Swansboro,NC and northwest of Maysville, NC. They have seen a staggering 2 feet of rain! They are easily on their way to 30″-40″ of rain.


Wilmington, NC has seen around 11″-12″ of rain as of 8 AM Saturday. Their rainfall total could easily reach 20″-25″. Raleigh, NC is on the edge of the heaviest rain, but they could easily end up with 5″ to 10″ of rain.


Where does Florence go from here?

SATURDAY MORNING: Florence is about 100 miles southwest of Wilmington, NC. It is moving west at 2 mph. Keep in mind, on average, we walk at 3-4 mph. So, the slow movement is going to cause the catastrophic flooding. It looks like southeast North Carolina will be the hardest hit as the persistent heavy rain bands are northeast of the center. That heavy rain band is right over the locations that have seen 2 feet of rain!


SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Florence is still wreaking havoc on the Carolinas. We are dry, very warm and humid with highs 85°-90°.  Also, the Chiefs play in Pittsburgh on Sunday and Florence will affect that area, but most likely on Monday.


SUNDAY NOON: Florence will be well south of Pittsburgh, so the Chiefs will not have to deal with the storm. Florence will affect western Pennsylvania Monday, but after the Chiefs fly back home on a victory flight. We will be in for another very warm and humid day. There is a 5% chance for an isolated T-Storm.

The Ohio and eastern Tennessee Valley’s and New England will see .25″ to 2″ of rain from Florence as it will be moving faster and be much weaker.


All of a sudden it has been a week since we have seen rain. When is our next chance?

MONDAY: A few T-Storms may pop up during the afternoon, but most will stay dry with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. We are watching a cold front to the north.


TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The cold front will head to around I-80, then stall and lift back north as a warm front. So, we will stay very warm and humid with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. Each day there will be a slight chance of an isolated T-Storm. The organized T-Storms will be across Nebraska and Iowa.


THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A new cold front will approach from the west and this will be our next decent chance of organized T-Storms. So, if you are seeding and/or fertilizing your yard you will have to drag out the sprinkler as we are a week away from any meaningful rain.


Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

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