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Flooding and Michael

Good Tuesday bloggers,

It has been quite a few days in the the area. We have wiped out the exceptional drought and the 7″ rainfall deficit at KCI. That is really incredible when you think about it.

Here is a radar estimated rainfall total map. A large area of 5″ to 10″ of rain has occurred from northern MO to southeast Kansas. A few locations have seen 10″ to 12″ of rain! So, it will not take much new rain to create flooding.

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There are Flood and Flash Flood watches from Canada to Mexico! The light green are flood and river flood warnings. There is also a hurricane warning along the Florida coast as Micheal heads north from the southern Gulf of Mexico.

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Why are we having all of this rain? First, in the upper levels there is a strong storm system, upper level low over four corners. The low is barely moving and sending a series of disturbances southwest to northeast from Mexico to Canada along a wavering front. This matches the flood watches and warnings. You can see Michael gaining strength west of Cuba.

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When you have the disturbances in the upper levels tracking parallel to a wavering front, you get the set up for torrential rain. Monday evening the front was just west of I-35. It has been drifting west and east for the last few days. That is why it seems cold one minute and muggy the next. Temperatures ranged from the 70s to low 80s east of the front to 40s and 50s to the west.

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There was a large area of rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front. You can see the front on this radar. It is the line from southeast of Wichita to near KC. It was drifting east, so we expect the rain and thunderstorms to shift east 50-100 miles by morning.

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This is the additional rainfall forecast through Wednesday. We are in a 1″ to 4″ rainfall band. You can see a reflection of Michael in the southeast USA. Some of the heavy rain will affect locations that Florence flooded.

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The big storm in the western USA will lift out into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. This will take the front and rain chances with it as it merges with Michael. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

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Have a great Tuesday.

Jeff Penner

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