Flawed Winter Forecasts Issued Too Early

Good afternoon bloggers,

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Here is a winter forecast issued by ACCU weather, respected by many, not so much by myself.  The cycling weather pattern that we will be experiencing over the winter and through next September is just now beginning.  Day 1 of this next years pattern is likely happening in these next few days. So, how can a forecast be made before the weather pattern sets up? Well, it can be done, but with very little chance of being right. There are things to look at such as the developing weak La Niña, which is still in question, past years that seem similar to now that I believe is 100% flawed, and many other factors that are still unknown such as will the AO and NAO be positive or negative this winter. So, yes, we can look at some of these features and make broad statements. Many winter forecasts have come out already and we just want to stress that the most important factor has yet to show its face. We will learn more soon.

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What is this statement? Really? Okay, let’s use La Niña.  How well did the El Niño/Southern Oscillation do the past two winters over the western United States? I can tell you. The answer is that the forecasts were a complete failure. The exact opposite to the forecasts happened.  In the strongest El Niño ever the forecasts came out for an ending of the drought, but the rain and snow never arrived in California two winters ago.  Then, last winter the forecast for the drought to worsen due to La Niña developing were put out. What happened? The exact opposite happened. The drought didn’t only not continue or expand, but it got obliterated and ended. Why? The answer lies within what we have been sharing with you for 15 years on this very blog.  The cycling pattern set up in such a way that counteracted the ENSO based forecasts.

So, hang on.  We have another few weeks and we will have your winter forecast put out at the right time in late November.  In the mean time let’s watch Tropical Storm Nate get caught in this changing pattern. We will discuss Nate tomorrow.

Rain and a few thunderstorms are beginning to form and there is a good chance of rain in KC overnight. I have just returned to KC and will be going back to work on KSHB-TV, 41 Action News, on Monday. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the  Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern.


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