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Flash Flood Watch & Severe Weather Risk

Good morning bloggers,

There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for a large area of the plains into the midwest.  There is also a severe weather risk today.

6 AM Radar:

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An area of snow is shown in the blue over Nebraska, and the band of thunderstorms was tracking north northeast into the KC metro area early this morning.

Lightning Strikes at 6 AM:

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The band of heaviest rain was moving into KC early this morning.  This first area of rain with embedded heavy thunderstorms is not an area of severe thunderstorms. Flooding is the main risk from this mornings band of rain. There may be a break in the thunderstorms and rain, and then we will see the next wave of energy approaching the area later this afternoon, and this is when the severe weather threat will increase.  The surface conditions will need to be monitored closely to see how unstable the lower layers of the atmosphere will become.

Today’s Severe Weather Risks:

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The highest tornado risk is over eastern Oklahoma extending northeast into extreme southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri.  From the SPC:  “A lingering uncertainty revolves around the northward retreat of the surface boundary this afternoon across Oklahoma.  A more westward/northwestward position of this boundary is possible pending evolution of early -morning convection, and this may result in a higher afternoon and evening severe weather threat than currently depicted on this outlook.  This area will be monitored for possible upgrade later today”.

This mornings complex of rain and thunderstorms should be well off to the east and northeast by early afternoon.  Will another band quickly form and move in, or will there be enough time for the front to retreat north which will provide some higher instability and an increasing threat of severe weather later this afternoon?

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now through noon:  Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times with lightning, thunder and the potential for some minor flooding.  Rainfall amounts of 1/2″ to 2″ likely.  Temperatures gradually warming up into the upper 50s
  • Noon to 6 PM:  There may be a break in the rain, with southeast winds increasing.   Temperatures will continue to struggle to warm up.  If there is any break in the cloud cover, then it may get a bit warmer. Right now it appears it will stay in the 50s to lower 60s.  If this is the case, then the severe weather risk will be highest in that enhanced risk area to the south.  There is a strong wave of energy moving across the area, directly related to the “bomb cyclone” from 48 days ago, and this may be strong enough in this LRC cycle to produce a few severe thunderstorms in the cooler air.  An additional 1/2″ to 2″ of rain are possible.

Right now, it appears the warm front will be forced to stay way south of KC.  This may change, and we will be monitoring the higher instability associated with the warmer air to the south closely.

Go to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here, Weathe2020 Blog, to join in the conversation.  There will be moderation on this blog to increase our positive experience.  Please be patient as there will be times where it is just a few minutes before your post is accepted, or it could take a couple of hours.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Have a great day!  We will be discussing this weather pattern in-depth on 41 Action News!

Gary

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