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First snowflakes begin, but still a tough forecast!

Good afternoon bloggers,

I just saw my first snowflakes on the south side of the KC metro area, southern Overland Park.  Have you seen any yet?  The band of snow on radar is quite thin.  Something to watch is an area of radar echoes increasing across northern Oklahoma. Let’s watch this band closely.  As is, this is developing, but the center of the first band is just southeast of KC. Is this where it is going to line up?

The models have come out, the radar is showing us in real time what is going on, and it appears this will end up going southeast of the city. There will be a dusting to an inch possible as the system moves by, but more likely to the south.

Have a great evening. Jeff Penner will have a live update on 41 Action News at 5  and 10 PM tonight.

Gary

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80 comments to First snowflakes begin, but still a tough forecast!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Seeing some light snow. when is the main event going to happen Gary?

  • Skylar

    Has anybody else heard about the PING project? If you allow location and click “zoom 2″ it shows local reports from across the metro. The brown squares mean no precip, everything else is pretty obvious.

    “http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/phone.php”

  • kellyinkc

    Flakes in Raytown now.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Nothing up in Platte City yet. Just cold and cloudy. NAM shows everything south and east of KC for snow.

  • ChiefsFan

    Yeah, when is the main event for Metro kc gonna be?

  • parkvillejayhawk

    Nothing in Parkville, cold and cloudy!

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011219&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=018″

    This is a super sharp cut-off line. This is the 19Z RAP. Based on this run, if you are north and northwest of KC, you will only see a few flurries and MAYBE a dusting. From Downtown south and southeast will see 1-2″. That 2-4″ Gary was talking about will be well east of Kansas City. I believe this is how its going to play out.

  • brianjayhawk

    Flurries here at Deer Creek at 127th and Nall.

  • ChiefsFan

    The update on NBC 41 website says snow likely 4pm to midnight 1-2 likely in kc

  • JohnP

    Gary,

    Very light but steady snow in Stilwell.

    John

  • mattmaisch

    Snowing here in Blue Springs now. The RAP continues to look good. However, if you’re a snow lover the NAM will leave you saying God NAMit! :)

    • Skylar

      Lol it doesn’t even show a trace of snow over my house and it’s snowing right now… so I doubt it has a good handle.

  • orgirl69

    Coming down at a pretty good clip in Raymore, already have a good dusting on the deck. Radar is pretty narrow. Is this it or are we expecting more later on?

    • Skylar

      TIMING…SHOWERS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
      BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM…TRANSITIONING TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND
      SUNSET. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY
      MIDNIGHT.

      • orgirl69

        Thank you Skylar :) Seems to already be accumulating so this could be a decent little snow down south here if it keeps going!

  • chiefs

    Driving home from 1-70 and noland rd had no snow at all the time i made it to south lee’s summit snow was coming down really good! small dusting on the deck so far

  • jgbrazil

    Light flurries at 100th and Nall

  • ChiefsFan

    Looks to me like everyone in viewing area will see snow

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    20Z RAP is not good for snow lovers. Moved the snow farther south of KC. VERY little for KC according to the latest data. The NAM was the same way. Dusting to at most 1″ for the metro.

    • Just looking at the radar echoes, in the past 30 minutes the trend is southeast. And as Jacob stated, the latest RUC has it mostly southeast. Still have to watch this closely but it looks like it’s back to our forecast from last night. We will all know for sure soon.

  • Skylar

    Snow really picking up in southern Overland Park right now! I’ve got a light dusting on the pavement so far.

  • snowdayhope

    Not one tiny flake in northwest Olathe. The weather channel, I know not the best source, says light to moderate snow ending by 4. Uh…..when did it even start? Am I missing something here?

  • ChiefsFan

    It looks like the snow on the radar is stretched out

  • snowdayhope

    Pardon me, steady snow ending by 4….

  • Weatherwatcher

    Good afternoon, Gary,

    We have very light snow in Lee’s Summit. The roofs are snow-covered, and the streets are wet. The snow is sticking to grass-covered areas, as well as on the cars.

  • McCabe58

    Snowing its butt off in lees summit! Roads getting covered

  • LSDan

    Snowing good right now just southeast of Lees Summit Airport. Snowy surfaces getting covered but concrete and ashphalt surfaces just wet.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Snow/sleet mix here in southern Olathe

  • blue8091

    :( bone dry here in OP.. 119th/antioch

  • HeatMiser

    LoL…3:35 storm, if we get it, is starting to arrive and still they can’t forecast it. LoL Epic fail on the Meteorological forecasting front.

  • Todd

    It’s all going east folks. Kansas side will see little to nothing out of this storm.

  • Jacob Honeycutt

    The band that is coming through Jackson County MO right now will likely be the only band that generates accumulating snow anywhere near the metro from this system. Flurries or light snow showers will be possible for the rest of the night, but it looks like this will be the strongest band. The main event will be well south and east of Kansas City. This was my gut feeling all along and has been my forecast all morning.

  • kellyinkc

    Stopped snowing in Raytown, could be thats all folks….

  • Skylar

    NAM, GFS, SREF only showing trace amounts of snow. RAP trending away from snow. Snow bands moving out of the metro. Still, if you manage get any accumulations, that’s better then what was being shown 24 hours ago.

  • restull

    Time to look to February. The rest of this month will be bone dry with northwest flow developing.

  • ChiefsFan

    Anyone,What’s it look like for the metro for snow

  • marcus

    Moderate to heavy snow in Louisburg for the past 45 minutes to hour. Visibility of 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Maybe an inch already!!!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    To me, looks like no more snow. Only flurries.

  • R-Dub

    Classic KC precipitation shield in effect right now. The radar is almost comical.

  • Bill Smith

    Just a quick reminder to everyone – if you get any pics of snow falling, share them with us at http://myreport.kshb.com, or through email at myreport@kshb.com or tweet us @41ActionNews. Thanks everyone!

  • ChiefsFan

    How much will metro kc. End up with? Surly something

  • McCabe58

    Snowing moderately here in pleasant hill! Everything is covered. Hopefully I’m south enough to get a good inch or two! Coming down very nicely right now

  • MikeL

    Is it too early to start talking about next winter?

  • f00dl3

    Gary – I know you had a special on global warming a few years back ago. I think you ought to do a special or some research into how a metropolitan area can influence the weather – such as how we are currently in this precip shield that blocks the rain and snow the last year. I know it has not always been like this – 2009-10/2010-11 were snowy years, and the tornadoes of 1957 and 2003, but in all honesty more often then not storms tend to do the split when they get here. I wonder if there is any scientific logic to this.

  • grassmankc

    We have about 1.5″ of snow in Greenwood MO. Still snowing pretty good.

  • ChiefsFan

    Kc metro will still end up with snow

  • dpollard

    There is an amazing cut off line that seems to be holding right through 291 and 70 hwy interchange. Snowing pretty good here in Blue Springs. Radar seems to show some development to south and west. Temperature is down to 27.5 and beginning to stick to sidewalks and drives. I think the earlier map Gary and company showed will be almost perfect. Maybe within a couple of miles on snowfall lines.

    • mattmaisch

      Boy, you basically just took the words out of my mouth. I live on the southeast side of Blue Springs and the snow continues to come down at a good clip and looks like it will for quite a while to come based upon radar. Crazy sharp cutoff!

  • McCabe58

    I’d be surprised if we weren’t getting close to an inch now down here in pleasant hill and still snowing moderately! It looks like I’m in a decent snow band right now.

  • tigerscott

    I measured 1 inch here in far SE Lees Summit.. Still snowing moderately.. side streets covered.. Alot of cars slid off highway on 50 HWY from LS to Lone Jack

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Not a single flake north of city. Just a huge letdown.

  • grassmankc

    Just measured 1.75 inches in Greenwood. Light snow still falling.

  • melafinatu

    Not so much as a flake up here by KCI. Not looking good for us

  • R-Dub

    Topeka radar is interesting. Even the virga has a sharp cutoff, right along I 35 in Johnson County. Have seen maybe 10 flakes here near downtown OP.

  • RickMckc

    Skies are actually brightening near I-29 & 64th.

  • McCabe58

    What’s the best way to show a picture directly to the blog?

  • gwh64063

    About 1″ in SE Lee’s Summit

  • HeatMiser

    LoL..after all that now they are forecasting a dusting. We obviously dont have the technology to forecast this type of scenario at all until after it gets here.

  • McCabe58

    They are forecasting 1-3″ in pleasant hill.. Just one county south of Jackson. Crazy

  • grassmankc

    Snow has stopped in Greenwood MO. Just measured 2″ on the deck.

  • supersubby

    Cars and roads covered with sleet. Just in the last ten minutes or so snow has began to mixed in. The roads are slick here in Clinton. Looks like a nice band of light snow continues to move through. Be safe everyone!

  • blue8091

    Just back from walking the dog. Crazy…from here you can clearly see the dark blueish clouds that are bringing snow to you guys just SE of here (SOP). I’m right at the cut off on the NW edge and skies were light gray directly above. Looks like snow…smells like snow but NO snow. Comical to come back and look at radar and see we’re in the same wishbone bubble AGAIN!

  • MikeL

    Both KC and TOP radars show moderate to heavy snow over my house in SW Topeka – not a flake to be seen falling. That’s what a 9 degree dewpoint does to you.

  • Farmgirl

    Wow two gently falling snow storms in a row. Woohoo.

    Already have an inch in La Cygne.

  • supersubby

    Nice to see your post farm girl! Its been quite some time since I have been on here! Hope things are going well!

  • mamaof3girls

    Yep…..about inch and a half here in Pleasanton, KS.,

  • blizzard68

    Why would Leavenworth be in a Winter Adv

  • Skylar

    I’m getting another snow shower despite the radar not showing anything over me, there are also several breaks in the clouds. Weird. Maybe the band around Topeka will produce something? I was hoping for at least a dusting.

  • Theo

    Wow! Look at all the SNOW!!

    Be EXTREMELY careful when shoveling all this snow. Take lots of breaks and don’t over do it.

  • Theo

    Come on wishcasters! You can still do it for the metro!!!

    I called this 4 days ago.

  • blizzard68

    Ice or sleet at my house

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Light flurries in Platte City