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First snowfall forecast map

Good evening bloggers,

We will be showing a graphic like this one on the air tonight. We may make some adjustments, but this is our first stab at what this storm is likely going to produce:

Notice how Kansas City is really close to the southern edge. If the storm can track a bit farther south we will fully be in this thing.  At the same time, if the storm tracks just a bit farther north we would only get a dusting if that. 

The latest models are rather bullish on snowfall amounts. Let’s see how this trends between now and tomorrow morning.  We will discuss the weather pattern and possibilities on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

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82 comments to First snowfall forecast map

  • kellyinkc

    hope we get something, we need the moisture.
    Dreaming of a White Christmas:
    “http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/280785873375723520/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=280785873375723520″

  • Jerry

    Looks like the NWS is a bit more bullish, painting 2-4″ across most of the metro:
    “http://ow.ly/i/1gdg4″

    • I imagine the rather conservative forecast at this point is in response to the outcry from storms past – that weather folks hype up the storm and get people scared and then the storm goes ‘poof’.

      If the models continue to be bullish, Gary and team will up the forecast total. Now is a good time for a conservative forecast.

    • Jerry,

      I don’t disagree, but I will wait another day. It is always better to go up, rather than go down on a snow forecast.

  • mattmaisch

    Hi Gary,

    Been a long time since we’ve seen a map like this one, even with only the small amounts being depicted in the metro.. Hopefully it will make a dive south. That said, next weeks “Christmas Storm” certainly has our attention. Will be interesting to follow them both.. Hope all is well.

    Matt

  • stjoeattorney

    Well we need moisture RAIN SLEET OR SNOW. but 6-8 inches of snow would be nice. Remember it will start out heavy and wet and end light and fluffy so i am of the opinion that will boost accum’tion an inch or two.

  • stl78

    I advise everyone to wait for this low to hit land b 4 getting to excited! At least its somethin to watch

  • StormyWX

    Haven’t the models over the…past two weeks or so slowly been dragging this thing down further and further south? If that’s the case, I still think it’s possible for it to shift downwards a few more miles (despite it only being three days out).

    Now while the realistic part of me is much more inclined to think that this storm system will actually take it’s projected path, part of me really does have a gut feeling that it will still shift south some a little bit more before Wednesday night.

  • Paul M. Galbrecht

    Let’s hope the storm takes a southern track! We need the moisture!

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Euro will win out. Again full sampling isnt until Tomorrow afternoon. the NWS map is a blended solution of 60/40 Euro. If it tracks more of the euro, then expect the 4-7 inches across much of the area and perhaps a nighttime-dawn blizzard. If its more the gFS/NAM track then expect snowfall amounts to be about what Gary posted.

  • kellyinkc

    blizzard watches out in western Kansas.

  • f00dl3

    Let’s see what happens. Tonight’s 00z model run and tomorrow’s 12z model runs are the ones that matter. After that it gets to the point where it’s more a nowcasting thing. I have a feeling the drought will win out. Especially when you look at the moisture source region over central Texas – dewpoints are in the upper teens to lower 20s. If not modified much, the storm will be pulling in dry air right over us and may end up dry slotting us.

    • As the storm dives in to Texas/Oklahoma, does it have the ability to pull in moisture?

    • mattmaisch

      “Dry slot” won’t happen unless the storm tracks further north. If it tracks south of us, it may still be impacted by the low moisture levels in Texas, but it won’t be a dry slot, as they are more of a positioning issue than anything else. Also, nowcasting after tomorrow’s 12Z data seems a bit early to me.. We will see what happens though, we are certainly due!

      Matt

  • davidmcg

    Gary, it has been a while since I agreed on weather with you, but this round is different. There is definitely a storm here and track worth noting. I personally do not see this storm tracking any further south. In the LRC each round acts a little different than the previous cycle. In recent years we learned that as the season moves towards the middle, these tracks generally move a little further south. In this case it has moved just enough that most of us will get at least 1″. Not a lot in the scheme of things, but in this drought, anything except a flood or ice storm is welcome. Not 50+ days from now, the middle of the winter cycle, we had all have ourselves together. This one could be real bad when we see her again.

  • Bananny

    It is nice to have a storm to follow finally!! My boss is headed to Denver Colorado tomorrow morning then on to Vail on Wednesday. I was beginning to think I needed to go with her just to see snow.

  • stjoeattorney

    you know while not a mega storm friday nite into saturday stjoe picked up .40 inches of much needed rain this event is stronger we will pick up .85 and .30 in rain and .55 in snow, there is another event 23-25 dec as well.

    if it is going to be brown and dead may as well paint it white….

  • McCabe58

    See, a month ago living in blue springs I would be close to that 1-2″ mark, but down where I’m at now its looking like only a dusting. It’s really crazy how just 20 miles it can change so drastically!

  • Weatherman Kumke

    18z GFS trended significantly south.

    the 12z GFS had the upper low near Warrensburg Missouri at 03z Thursday

    the 18z GFS has the upper low near Joplin Missouri at 03z Thursday.

    Looks like King Euro is gonna end up winning out and we get 4-7 inches.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_69HR.gif” Latest GFS snow map

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif”

    If we get 2 inches I’ll be satisfied. NOT! I am never satisfied, it’s a curse…

  • Kole Christian

    It does look like us lucky ones on the north side of Kansas City will at the very least being seeing some flakes.

  • StormyWX

    So…I have to say…I’m sort of startled by the WIDE varying ranges of these snowfall forecasts! Gary and company’s is above obviously. Well, I watched another station tonight at 6 just to see what they had to say, and they gave the whole area from around St. Joseph down to about Clinton a “2-5 inch” possibility range of snow fall, with areas south of Clinton getting little to none, and north of St. Joseph getting more than five.

    I’ll have to keep monitoring this now to see if they change it any, but I really sort of do take issue with meteorologists that give such a wide range of totals for a large are, even if/when a storm is only about a day or so out, even hours.

    • Weatherman Kumke

      I know who you are talking about. He didnt wanna go all out and was waiting for tonights model run to potentially increase it to 4-6 inches and then 6+ above hwy 36. I believe the NWS Map is the best map for right now until the model runs come out. which resemble his.
      “http://ow.ly/i/1gdg4″

  • mukustink

    Where was this 3,4,5 days ago? This was not on Gary’s radar at all Friday or Saturday. Should be an interesting couple of days around the old watering blog. How many times will the total’s change between now and Wednesday night?

    Mowermikey you have your plows ready just in case? Probably will just need a blower :)

  • McCabe58

    I’m confused… In koles map he posted it seemed to shift this whole storm way north, but in champs it was way south?

    • mukustink

      One is a 72 hour map and one is a 69 hour map. The 72 hour map is going to show moew snow then a 69 hour map does. That’s the answer.

  • ChiefsFan

    This thing is gonna shift south and metro will get blasted, sounds like the trend!

  • mgsports

    Not naming the station but the one that Lezak use to work their Cheif is predicting at the moment no Snow because to warm so if anything I think maybe Ice if it starts out as heavy Rain.

  • mukustink

    This is going to go north I think. I would guess that we will get rain if anything and maybe a dusting if that. The roads will be to warm for any accumilation on them and it would only stick to grass if anything. Looks like we will have to wait to see what next Tuesday/Wednesday brings.

  • Kole Christian

    McCabe,

    I’m posting maps the best I can. I prefer KCChamps maps because they show more snow. The 2-4 seems good for now, especially for those of us on the north side.

  • Kole Christian

    I know how a lot of people get upset with weather reports and records being taken at KCI. I can tell you that there are quit a few people that live in the northland and we appreciate the close reports, you can find you local weather on the news or on your computer, when it comes to record keeping, as long as it’s in the metro it doesn’t matter where they take readings at. I’ve only ever had one problem with KCI readings. The 2009 Christmas blizzard. We got a lot more than the list 7-9 inches!

  • McCabe58

    Makes sense muku, didn’t even notice the different times. Thanks. And kole I wasn’t complaining lol just confused. I really do doubt the whole ice scenario though. Haven’t heard anyone mention it at all, but I usually don’t like listening to the “other stations”

  • mattmaisch

    00Z NAM stays pretty consistent. Upper level storm (500 mb) takes a nice track for KC to be in the accumulating snow. Heaviest still appears to be north of the metro, but the track is coming together for KC to be in the snow. Will look forward to the GFS after a bit.

    Matt

    • The latest NAM model showed the upper level storm going through a transition as it is approaching us. I would like to see more organization. The track looks nice.

      • mattmaisch

        Thanks Gary, that makes sense. I looked at the 500 mb chart first and I expected higher precip totals for the metro, but they were still in the .25-.50″ range. I assume the transition you’re referencing is the reason for this, as precip totals are still higher to our north. Looks like the storm is getting more organized as it passes us by as well.

  • R-Dub

    Off hour model, storm still not onshore…wouldn’t get too excited yet. But not a bad trend if you like interesting weather.

    • mattmaisch

      Off hour model?? 00Z & 12Z are not the off hour models. Where you coming up with that? I’m not getting excited bud, I’m just pointing out the facts as the model currently indicates them, that’s all..

      Matt

  • weatherman brad

    I overheard that wichita kansas will be issuing a winter storm watch pretty shortly, is this a sign of the bigger snows heading to kc.

    brad

    • No Brad, it is still too early. I think the watches should be waiting until tomorrow to be issued. There won’t be anything until Wednesday night in our area.

    • mukustink

      Brad were you at the Wichita NWS office and that’s how you overheard this?

      • Skylar

        They actually posted an update on their AFD section that says they will be issuing a watch, but only because of the possibility of blizzard conditions. Amounts were only supposed to be 2-3″.

  • mukustink

    Let’s remember that the above map that Gary posted was the FIRST map from data earlier. In other words the map will change from model run to model run so I think we need to keep that in mind. Like Rdub said this baby is not even on shore yet. Let’s wait till this babay comes ashore before we get “snow crazy.”

  • mgsports

    Know if the Gulf was open more chance of Ice then Snow.

  • Skylar

    I’m kind of surprised by this map, usually the HPC is a lot more conservative with the snow accumulation/probabilities: “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif”

  • Weatherman Kumke

    00z GFS more South. They are both trying to catch the King Euro in Track. Cant wait for the Watches over KC tomorrow.

  • Skylar

    Test… test…

    My comments keep getting eaten.

  • mattmaisch

    Track and QPF on GFS echo the 00Z NAM nicely. Something still isn’t quite right though. Both models put us into the snowfall, but with the upper level track as it is, the storm should be a better snow producer for KC than is currently being indicated. Must be the transition that Gary referenced above. The GFS indicated that the low will close off sooner than the NAM did. This would seem to be beneficial for Kansas City’s snow chances as well. Certainly looks like it will snow, now the question seems to be how much.

    Matt

    • Skylar

      It would certainly be a cruel trick if the storm were to take the perfect track but only mature as it passed by KC.

      • mattmaisch

        Agreed Skylar.. Gary kind of confirmed things during his weathercast. Track looks great, but it doesn’t have it’s act together as well as we would like when it passes by, or at least according to the current data. If it tracks as it is currently projected, and gets its act together a little ahead of schedule, we will get hit pretty hard, but those are a couple of pretty big “if’s.”

        On another note, the storm for next week, though still a long ways out continues to look like a beast on the 00Z GFS.

        Matt

  • weatherman brad

    muku,

    I got connections, I just dont make up stuff. turns out that only four counties in the wichita area got included and not the whole region. so sorry for the faults mix mash up everyone.

    good night.

    brad

  • Kcchamps

    the latest GFS has around 2-4″ for the metro, with more just north of us, i will post the SNOW map in a minute

  • RickMckc

    Not to jump too far ahead but check out what the GFS is showing for Christmas Day and the next (and it – along with the European – been pointing to something big in that time frame for several days now).

    Scroll to the bottom to see the precip amounts and type.

    “wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”
    “wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfsb.png”

    If that verifies, it’s 2009 all over again.

    • Weatherman Kumke

      Rick, I would be fine with that. My 24 inches, Above average precip, and Below average temp forecast would be more accurate than the LRC lol

    • Kcchamps

      check this out Rick!

      “http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false”

      this would be pretty amazing :)

  • Kcchamps

    latest 00z SNOW map

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • LittleAndy

    Excited for Wednesday night but antsy to see if the models keep trending for a “snowpacolypse” on Christmas! I really hope this is the change we have been waiting for!

  • McCabe58

    You don’t wanna live anymore? No one on here with any new data??

  • McCabe58

    Our first chance at some decent accumulating snow in like two years and NO ONE is on here with updates :(

    • Kcchamps

      I will post the latest NAM SNOW map for you in a few minutes when it comes out :) but looking ate the latest data it looks like the NAM indicates around 2-3″ maybe 4″ Hope this helps you, and the GFS will be coming out in about 25-30 minutes

    • Kcchamps

      “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX” here is the latest 06z NAM SNOW map, it shows 2-3″ for the metro with higher amounts further north

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    This is surprising, there is someone on at this hour of the night. The NWS in Wichita just updated their forecast discussion. They are saying models are trending a bit further south and a bit of a stronger Low.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    My computer at work is not letting me load the data from Noaa. NWS out of Wichita went ahead and extended the Winter Storm Watch another tier of counties to the south. Also noticed late last night the NWS out of Dodge City hoisted a Blizzard Watch. Winds are going to be VERY, VERY strong with this Low, I can say that much with 100% :)

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    http ://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/?n=embrief_winter Tried to put the link up but it says it will have to be moderated, so to get around this I just put spaces in the http

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    MODELS
    CONTINUE TO COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
    THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT…WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS A
    LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WILL EXPAND THE WATCH ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
    TO THE SOUTH…MAINLY JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

    Going to go take a 20 min break, by then the GFS snowfall forecast will be out and I expect you to post it on here KCChamps, Thanks :)

  • McCabe58

    It really doesn’t look like its going south based on those maps

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Ya NWS Topeka is showing us on the edge of 1-3″. I think this could explain why just 1-3″. However an 850mb low … where dry slotting
    occurs…associated with this system is expected to track from
    Wichita to Kansas City to Quincy Wednesday night. It is basically
    north of this line where it will be possible for heavier snow as
    deformation banding may occur which could produce as much as 3-7″ of
    snow with perhaps just an inch or two possible across the Metro and
    points south.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Sounds like we could get dry slotted, that is my thinking. It’s still early, see what the models are saying18 hrs from now, around midnight or so tonight, that’s when I will make my Snowfall forecast for KC.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX” Zoomed in look at the latest 06z GFS snow map

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    shows 2-3″ for the metro with higher amounts further north

  • kellyinkc

    Christmas Day storm.
    “http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=00&fhour=240&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false”