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First Snow In 64 Days Is Coming

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

The March Weather Madness continues. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning during winter. What? Are you kidding? It has been so mild with so any trees budding and blooming before March 10th they felt it was necessary to issue this Freeze Warning:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 7.15.07 AM

The dark purple colored area from Kansas City to Kentucky shows the Freeze Warning. New York City is in a Winter Weather Advisory and they are forecasting 2-4 inches of snow. Can you imagine a forecast of 2-4″? Kansas City is in a snow drought right now for three winters.

Kansas City Snowfall:

  • This Winter: 4.5″ (Second lowest total in recorded history as of today)
  • 2015-2016 Winter: 5.9″
  • 2014-2015 Winter: 14.2″

This is a total of 24.6″ over the past three winters. Will we be adding to this years total? There is still some debate on this as we are now less than 24 hours from some snow spreading into parts of Kansas and Missouri from the north. The storm causing this is not organized at all. There is a second system to track as well, but the trend on Mondays storm is much farther northeast which would draw in much warmer air to mess this chance up in our area.

Let’s look at these next two storm systems. But, first, how dry has it been getting? Take a look at these numbers:

  • It has been 64 days since Kansas City’s last measurable snow: 2.2″ fell at KCI Airport January 4-5, 2017, 64 days ago
  • The dry spell is now at 53 days! In the last 53 days, since the “non ice” ice storm Kansas City has only had 0.45″ which includes the .35″ from Mondays tornado and severe weather outbreak

Storm #1: Saturday

I guess we can call this a storm system. Here is the set up from this mornings NAM model just out:

Screen Shot 2017-03-10 at 8.24.52 AM

This map above shows the latest NAM model. There are 2 to 3 inch amounts near Kansas City. KCI Airport has not had 3″ or more in a storm the past three full winters including this year. Every snowfall has been under three inches since a 7″ snow on February 4-5 four winters ago in the 2013-2014 winter. Three full winters without a three inch snow. I am expecting this streak to continue after tomorrows snow. There may be a thin band that gets 3″ or more? But, most areas will likely be in the dusting to 2″ range.

Kansas City Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to 3″ with most spots receiving 2″ or less!

Storm #2: Monday

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The trend on this model is strongly in the warmer direction in our area. Just yesterday morning the models had this system tracking much farther to the southwest. The trend is in this farther northeast direction. This is the storm that will become another majorly impacting storm beginning around Iowa and then really blowing up in the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. It is just not fair, is it? Look at this forecast map from the overnight 06z NAM model. The other models have strongly trended in this direction as well:

At midnight Sunday night warmer are will be drawn into the warm sector. It will likely warm up into the 40s near Kansas City by midnight, which will be Sunday and Mondays high temperatures before that strong cold front moves through. Iowa would be the target and Kansas City would likely only have a band of rain, showers, or possibly even a thunderstorm.

Let’s see how all of the other models roll in this morning. It certainly appears it will snow Saturday. Yes, there is still some doubt. ┬áThank you for sharing in this weather experience. We have a lively discussion going on right now on Weather2020.com if you want to join in.

Gary

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