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Final Weekend of the Year a Calm One. Snow Very Possible New Year’s Eve.

Good Morning Bloggers!

Wind chills in the single digits made for a cold start this morning.  Our actual air temperature of 18° wasn’t the coldest morning yet (we dipped into single digits the morning after Christmas), but it sure made it hard to get out the door.  The cold air will be with us for a while…Happy New Year!

Overnight clouds actually kept the temperatures from dropping into the single digits early this morning.  Manhattan and Emporia had cleared out before sunrise.  As a result, they dipped to 7 and 9 degrees, respectively this morning.  Here’s a cloudy look from this morning on the south side of the Metro.

Pic taken 8 a.m.
Our early morning clearing took about 2 hours…from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m.  My what a difference 2 hours makes!

Pic taken 10 a.m.

Weather’s calm and cold as we wait for the next storm system.  It’s an upper low shown below off the California Coast.

There’s actually a disturbance farther north, over the western coast of Canada.  It will swing around the low and eject over KC Monday into Tuesday and likely bring snow.  The problem is, some computer models indicate this disturbance will weaken before it hits KC and others track the disturbance over KC nice and strong. 

This “weaker” forecast solution yeilds a snowfall of less than an inch for KC.  The more aggressive computer models show this disturbance dropping over 5 inches of snow Monday afternoon and night.  With this disagreement comes uncertainty.

 The powercast below shows snowfall amounts ranging from less than an inch to over 4″ with Monday’s snow.

Even with the uncertainty,  here’s what I want you to be prepared for in the event of accumulating snow in KC.
1. Snow may be able to start falling Monday before sunrise.  Tricky temperatures may be slightly below or above freezing early in the day.  Depending on the time it starts snowing, roads may become slick for the morning commutes.
2. Snow would be possible during the entire day.  Hopefully, temperatures would warm above freezing midday, which would help melt anything on the roads.
3. Temperatures would drop off at the end of the day and through the evening.  Winds would pick up and accumulating snow would be possible.  New Year’s Eve drives around town may be slick and hazardous. 
4. Snow forecast to end early Tuesday morning would leave behind a cold frozen mess to clean up New Year’s Day.

It’s still a couple days out, so we’ll fine tune this forecast as we know more.  Regardless of what happens, be careful on the final night of 2012.

-GW

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219 comments to Final Weekend of the Year a Calm One. Snow Very Possible New Year’s Eve.

  • Freeze Miser

    Good luck, George, as you make your way down south. My wife and I along with my parents are sad to see you go.

    I’m glad the snow is coming!

    • Kansa

      Agreed, Freeze Miser! All of the meteorologists have at KSHB have their own different personalities and I have an appreciation for them all. George, I’ve mentioned before that I love your succinct manner, including your “3 things” forecasts. I also got to see you a couple of years ago at Nebraska Furniture Mart and thought you seemed like a very polite, thoughtful person.

      So sorry to see you go, George, you will be missed! However, I wish you the best of luck and hope you have many new opportunities and blessings in the coming New Year!

  • Dobber

    How much are the models showing champs? Where has mower mike been?

  • Skylar

    6z GFS/Euro gives 1-4″ of snow across the metro, 1-3″ on the north side with 2-4″ on the south side. NAM/SREF gives about 3-5″ across the metro with a 6-10″+ farther north. 12z NAM is coming in now.

    • Skylar

      The new NAM is definitely coming out wetter, showing up to 1″qpf in SW Kansas, and it’s not done coming out yet either. It doesn’t seem to be yielding to the GFS, which does become less reliable the closer we get. Maybe the NAM’s losing streak will finally end with this storm!

  • Theo

    Go get ‘em wishcasters! Can hardly wait for the 6-8 predictions from heavy and champs!

    1 inch at KCI, which may shut down runways.

    2 in JOCO, 3 in Miami County.

    • RickMckc

      I think heavysnow is in STL … and champs mostly just posts maps – not makes predictions. Good luck w/yours.

  • McCabe58

    Bring on the snow!!!!! I’m south of the metro, would love to get 4-6 inches so my kids can play in the snow for the first time

  • Adam Penney

    WOW! Who wants to forecast this??

    Hard to remember a time when the GFS and the NAM were this far off from each other.

    12z NAM had trended south. From KC north shows about 6-10 inches. 4-6 inches on the south side.

    The last two runs of the GFS have a dusting to 2 inches for the metro.

  • dpollard

    Even reducing new NAM output by 50 percent for limiting factors KC still gets a decent snow. 3-4 inches seems reasonable. I think Heavy Snow got some snow this morning in St. Louis but not more than the 2 inches he still longs for. It is amazing how parts of SE Illinois got 14-18 inches followed by 3-7 additional inches yesterday.

  • McCabe58

    Why so yet have to be so far apart?!? I hate when the models do this… George just said on the newscast that he just got some new data in that shows even more snow.. Talking about the nam? Come on gfs, get your act together!!

  • Skylar

    GFS probably has a more realistic solution, but The NAM becomes more reliable, and the GFS inversely less reliable as we get closer. Here’s the snowfall map: “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • Adam Penney

    Yes, Skylar. The GFS is much mor realistic in this situation. May be a bit underdone, but my bet is that it’s pretty close. Fully expect the NAM to trend towards the GFS by the 0z run tonight.

  • weatherbro

    If it doesn’t?…

  • farmingnolkes

    The livestock are acting like its going to storm best weather models out there are the animals

  • Adam Penney

    12z GFS is interesting. Still very opposite of the NAM. It’s a south of the river show with about 1-4 inches total. Highest totals on the SW side of the metro.

    Most interesting part of this run is that it seems to want to reload the SW flow very quickly after this wave moves by.

  • Skylar

    12z GFS also seems to be slightly wetter then the 06z (which gave us almost nothing).

    6z: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif”

    12z: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif”

  • McCabe58

    I expect the gfs to slowly come more in line with the nam… I’d say somewhere in the middle of the two would be a safe bet. 2-4 inches metro wide looks probable

  • nerd in lansing

    WOW, such a huge split in the models. Get ready for some serious nowcasting…on my mark get set go?

    I hope the nam pans out leavenworth county would get blasted.

  • Emaw

    I love it when models disagree, especially when they’re hot!

  • fire508

    I don’t think I have ever seen the models vary as much as they are now. Even NWS is splitting hairs.

  • nerd in lansing

    This storm is an abomination, it is weakening but still wants to dump alot of snow. Maybe the NAM is training the snow over one area, and the GFS isnt buying it.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    12z GFS snow map shows 2-4″ for the metro

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    12z NAM shows 5-8″ for the metro with higher amounts further north

  • weatherbro

    Look at that bulllseye right over Northwest MO. The difference between the two is very puzzling though.

  • Emaw

    Translation: JACK SQUAT!

  • mattmaisch

    Well, as most of you guys have noted, this is something else! Quite a difference between the models. Interesting read from the NWS AFD this morning. You can tell they are really torn.

    A few good thing’s for snow lovers at this point include the fact that the AFD was based on the 00Z data, and if anything the NAM has become more persistent with amounts and location, whereas the GFS has conceded a bit. Also, the NWS mentioned that the ECMWF & GFS were alone in their indications, whereas the majority of the ensembles along with the NAM were fairly like minded. The NWS also mentioned the warm air advection snow being indicated by the NAM. This makes it difficult to predict this thing with the lack of a true upper level storm, but we have seen some major snows in the past resulting from the warm air advection.

    I said on the last blog late last night that today would be very interesting where the models are concerned. So far that his been true to say the very least. Now, we wait until 2:30 or so..

    Matt

  • McCabe58

    Still no block/ignore button huh… Dang, maybe one day.. Until then we have to put up with the annoying posts by the same people. Do you really have to say the same thing about every storm? Give it a rest already

  • Emaw

    Just having a little fun, but come to think of it your posts are rather annoying after a while. Always complaining about other posts.

  • McCabe58

    Ignore me then, you aren’t “just having a little fun” bro… You say that EVERY storm. Gets old ya know? Jack SQUAT isn’t really contributing anything to the blog. Look at the models, yes one is very different than the other but they’re both showing snow. So you’re prediction of jack squat is 0% accurate.

  • Emaw

    We will see won’t we “bro”

  • McCabe58

    P.s. I complain about 3 bloggers on here. I say what every one else is thinking I’m sure. Ill just ignore you guys from here on out as hard as it is. Would be so much simpler with a block button!

  • McCabe58

    We sure will BRO.

  • Emaw

    Happy New Year!

  • stjoeattorney

    LIKE I SAID YESTERDAY A 5-8 INCHER WILL DO….

    2 things more warmth and a stronger ESE win and a strongSoiuth wind can keep the artic air out of the system and allow this one to hit the area good. the drawback is it will make next week bitterly cold as the upper plains are snowpacked we can fall to zero or below and a chance of a Alberta Clipper on thursday adding 2-3 inches of powder on the newyears event will keep it cold.

  • Adam Penney

    The NWS just put out a graphic stressing only light accumulations are possible. Greatest chance is south of HWY 36.

    • fire508

      Where Adam. The one on the main EAX page is the same from this morning.

    • Kcchamps

      “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif”

    • spaceotter

      It’s on their facebook page, although they still sound unsure:

      New Years Eve/Day Winter Storm Update: The latest data continues to indicate the potential for wintry precipitation over much of Kansas and Missouri, although some significant differences continue among the various model solutions we utilize. The general consensus is for the highest probabilities of LIGHT accumulations of snow south of the Highway 36 corridor beginning early Monday morning, and lingering into New Years day. Further south, it appears mixed wintry precipitation will be possible over southern portions of Missouri and Kansas. As any shift northward/southward with this system could have an impact on your precipitation chances, we urge you to continue to monitor for the latest forecasts. Please make sure to “share” and “like” this image so your friends, family, or others are aware of this potential wintry weather setup.

    • WxAholic

      I wonder in thier minds what defines light? By looking at thier “highlights” and “uncertainty” boxes, they have no idea yet either. It’s still more than 2 days out and with the models all over the place it is still too soon to call it.

  • McCabe58

    Adam how could they say that when they still have no idea what’s going to happen?…

  • spaceotter

    I don’t see it either. Not yet anyway. Maybe their afternoon discussion will include that information.

  • mukustink

    Looks like we just might get JACK SQUAT! As usual.

  • McCabe58

    Yep, still seems like they are very unsure of what is going to happen! Going for 2-4 for metro, possible 3-6 in some places!!!! Sweet! :)

  • melafinatu

    Theo:

    The airport snow removal crews are actually very good in most every storm. I think the storm a week ago was one they couldn’t get that layer of ice off the runways. Watching them remove the snow is pretty incredible. They have 6-8 different types of trucks in a staggered formation to clear runways. So usually snow isn’t a problem. It’s ice and slush that becomes the problem.

    Derek

  • mukustink

    Hut Hut Hike

  • McCabe58

    Yeah what’s up with the +1 and +2?

  • StormyWX

    You said Emporia was 9 degrees, it was 1.

  • Emaw

    What time does the new data come out?

  • thomasmidwest

    Nam coming out now up to 36 hours

  • Skylar

    Looks like the new NAM isn’t as wet but it is further south. It’s only at hour 48 right now though.

  • Kcchamps

    latest 18z NAM still hits us hard with snow

  • sedsinkc

    18z NAM showing heaviest snow right around KC area, 5-8″ based on liquid.

  • thomasmidwest

    Nam 60 hours out “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060″

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM gives most of the Metro .50-.75″ of precip which at a 10to1 snow ratio would be 5-7.5″ but the ratios may be higher than 10to1, more like 11 or 12to1

    • Skylar

      EAX said 13:1 this morning so that seems pretty good, but overall the new NAM is trending towards the GFS. If it holds we’re golden, if it keeps shifting south on 0z or is any drier it’ll probably be just a couple inches in KC.

  • Adam Penney

    Yep, 18z NAM has a fairly narrow bullseye running right through the city of 5-8 inches.

  • sedsinkc

    It is possible some of the initial snow will melt as it falls, as temps at snowfall start might be just above freezing at the surface. A nice warm day tomorrow (over 40 degrees with some sun) will help warm top of ground surface just a little where no snow cover is present, otherwise as cold as it’s been the snow would stick anyway even if it’s 34 degrees air temp.

  • mattmaisch

    Well, the NAM stayed persistent with QPF and moves the bullseye right over the top of the city. I would say this model is remaining extremely convicted in it’s depiction. Now, more waiting…

  • McCabe58

    The snow all depends on if Gary stays in Vegas or not. Stay there Gary!!

  • sedsinkc

    NWS KC just tweeted link to forecast map showing 1-3″ snow for KC, possibly 2-4″ SW of KC toward Wichita…don’t know if this is a new map or just rehash of prior map.

  • sedsinkc

    “http://ow.ly/i/1jfyE” Hope this works.

  • kellyinkc

    I see this on the main page.
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”
    Wondering if any watches will be issued?

  • McCabe58

    You beat me to the punch seds.. I think they’re going out in a limb with that one, but I think that’s a safe forecast

  • sedsinkc

    This storm might be a tough one to gauge. GFS expects significant shearing/weakening as it approaches us, NAM holds it together better although even NAM’s precip totals decreased on last run. Wonder what the GFS has in store. Wonder if the NAM and GFS models will ever converge enough to allow for higher confidence forecasting, or will it be a situation where you have to pick one or the other model, or choose a blended solution. My gut tells me to expect lower totals rather than higher ones, but guts don’t have brains, lol.

  • mattmaisch

    wxcaster 18Z NAM snowfall..

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif”

  • mattmaisch

    The latest from the NWS AFD…

    Turning to the potential for a New Years Eve snowfall, the 12Z model
    suite offered little in the way of a confidence boost with
    significant spread continuing among the NAM/SREF vs. the global
    ECMWF/GFS/GEM guidance. While the NAM, including the latest 18Z run,
    continues to paint snowfall totals over 6″ across the I-70 corridor,
    the consensus among the more consistent global models is on a weaker
    surface wave and lesser snowfall amounts. Interestingly the NAM is
    quite similar to the other models with its tropospheric wave, with
    the differences seeming to arise from the way the wave interacts with
    the low-level boundary over the Central Plains. NAM produces a
    stronger surface wave from this interaction and even a resulting
    TROWAL. This in turn leads to enhanced snow rates across our forecast
    area Monday evening. Situations like what the NAM is forecasting do
    occasionally happen, and when they do the NAM is quite often the
    better performer. However the NAM also has a history of forecasting
    these deepening surface lows too often which causes it to produce
    precip amounts that are too high (see last Tuesday`s storm).

    So with all that said, will continue to keep an eye on the NAM since
    its solution cannot be completely discounted, but at this point the
    best route is to take a blend of the much-more consistent global
    models which suggest light snow overspreading the forecast area
    Monday morning, lasting off and on through early Tuesday. Most likely
    scenario is a general 1 to 3 inch swath of snow south of an Atchison KS
    to Moberly line with the highest amounts across the southern forecast
    area. Can`t rule out some rain mixed in across the far southeast
    counties early Monday which could cut back on snow totals there but
    snow should be the dominant precip type.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066″

    here is what the latest 18z GFS is saying

  • Skylar

    18z GFS very similar to the 12z at hour 60, maybe hinting at a tiny bit more moisture. Still showing 2-4″. That’s probably a good bet for the region, with some places maybe getting 5-6″ if the stronger banding indicated by the NAM develops.

  • Emaw

    This is definitely going to be fun to watch over the next 24 hrs!

  • mattmaisch

    The battle continues! GFS does seem a bit higher in snowfall totals than it was earlier, but still, a much different look than the NAM!

  • sedsinkc

    18z GFS still singing the same tune, less snow than what NAM is forecasting, about the same as its last run.

  • sedsinkc

    Main difference I can see between 18z and 12z GFS runs is the precip cutoff is not quite as rapid from south to north, i.e. the 0.25-0.50″ line is a tad farther south from KC than last run, while the 0.01″ area extends a little farther north. KC is still in the same boat snowfall forecast-wise as the last run though.

  • sedsinkc

    Comparisons of total precipitation, first from 12z GFS at 78 hours, second from 18z GFS at 72 hours. Very similar overall.
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_078_precip_ptot.gif”
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif”

  • weatherdonkey

    I would love a huge big snowstorm for KC. However, after looking a both NAM and GFS, one predicting up to 10 inches and the other predicting a dusting to a couple of inches, other stations takes on the situation, and the knowing that the general consensus is that this will be a weakening system when it gets here tells me that the forecast should be a dusting to two inches. Sorry to say this one is a dud.

    • mattmaisch

      Not so fast! Could be true, but certainly it could also go the other way. I understand your skepticism, but this thing certainly still has a chance to be a significant snow maker around here.

      • Kcchamps

        I agree Matt. It just seems like everyone, including the Meteorologists are hesitant to forecast very high snowfall totals

        • weatherdonkey

          That’s due to getting burned so many times in the past. I hope you are right and we get a lot of snow. I just tend to lean on the skeptical side in KC as storms in the past have underperformed far more often than they’ve over performed – way more so if you take out those two heavy snowfall seasons a couple of years ago. As a matter of fact, before those two years, it got so bad that whenever the forecasters predicted lots of snow you knew that likely meant it would miss us or fall apart. Now the forecasters are very careful in their snowfall amount predictions, and rightly so. Those days of totally blowing snowstorm forecasts made local meteorologists look really really really REALLY bad.

  • weatherbro

    Yeah this will most likely be a snoozer. Just your typical 1-3 inches.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    zoomed in look at the 18z NAM snow map

  • Emaw

    I think we’re looking at 6-10″ easy.

  • Wow this storm looks really impressive and centered right over us.

  • Skylar

    When is this storm gonna be fully sampled? If the models still can’t agree after that point, it’ll probably be up to now casting to figure out whether we get light or heavier totals.

    • muwxman

      Even with the last storm, after it got fully sampled the models still had some variation. But eventually trended together. I also don’t recall the models having this big of discrepency with the last system.

  • f00dl3

    NAM always has a tendency to overdo precip totals.

  • stjoeattorney

    it is the sleeper events like this that make it interesting n 24 hrs 12 hrs out we will know

    COULD BLOW UP OR GO POOF

  • f00dl3

    My official thinking is 1-3″ KC metro, highest amounts south. NAM is forecasting a TROWAL which I do not think will form.

  • weatherdonkey

    LoL..latest 41 Action Weather forecast…we will get nothing or something….dusting to five inches. Thanks for clearing that up for us guys. Without your forecast, I wouldn’t have known we would get something or nothing.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_63HR.gif”

    18z GFS snow map

  • RickMckc

    In comparing the previous GFS runs, it looks like it is moving more towards the idea of the NAM. Still aimed a bit further south, but the run-to-run precip pattern has increased in both amount and aerial coverage.

    So … I’ll make a call for at least four inches in my backyard (and at KCI). If the NAM trowal forms, add two to that.

  • teamster83

    excuse my inexperience but what is a trowal

    • RickMckc

      Trowal is an abbreviation for “Trough of Warm Air Aloft” … which (as I understand it) is what happens when a storm gets wrapped up enough to push an enhanced area of warmer/wetter air aloft in the NW quadrant of the storm. This typically results in enhanced precip in that area, specifically heavy snow in winter. You can identify it on radar as it tends to lag back behind main storm on the west side and often follows a dry slot where precip ends for a while. Precip echoes sometimes move from NE to SW instead of SW to NE.

      I think a lot of our snow from last Thursday resulted from us being in the Trowal area.

      Anyone else with a better understanding, feel free to chime in.

  • Jim Satterfield

    Am I the only one wondering why the seven day forecast graphic on the main weather page doesn’t match the blog discussions, showing snow on Tuesday, not Monday.

  • NCO

    Hello….new to the board. Which model is more reliable in the winter. NAM or GFS? Seems like the board favors the GFS. THanks,

  • mukustink

    Hiddy Ho Hiddy HO will we get snow?

  • mukustink

    Let’s wait till tomorrow to see what the data shows. I mean new data is better then old data right?

  • mukustink

    George just throw out some crazy number like 20 inches. Your leaving after tomorrow anyway so who cares if it’s accurate. It would be funny :)

  • weatherbro

    Their not going to give a definite forecast until tomorrow at 5 o’clock.

  • Emaw

    Yeah, we’ll know much more about this storm by Monday!

  • mukustink

    Yeah and by Tuesday morning we’ll really have a handle on it!

  • mukustink

    Well NWS still on the fence. They still don’t believe the NAM but they are not discounting it yet. Still saying 1-3 at this point. Can’t all the models just get along in honor of Rodney King.

  • weatherdonkey

    By Wednesday they will commit to a forecast for sure for Monday or Tuesday, although they won’t guarantee accuracy.

  • MikeL

    WE NEED MORE DATA AND MORE COWBELL!!!! :cool:

  • Am I way off base or does anyone else realize that Gary looks like don flamenco from mike Tyson’s punchout

  • Adam Penney

    I’m still sticking with the GFS. The NAM is just flat out to lunch. Shearing storms do not produce a trowal as its weakening.

    I’ll wait until the 12z runs tomorrow, but this is looking like a solid 1-3 to a 2-4 inch snow for KC.

  • McCabe58

    Trolls… Gotta love em

  • ChiefsFan

    Adam, so does it seem like the last snow, accumulation wise just not the wind?

  • Adam Penney

    Not a lot of wind with this, no.

  • weatherdonkey

    Yup, this storm looks to be pretty much a dud. I hope we get at least a couple good snow storms this season. Last season was pathetic.

  • Adam Penney

    Also, I’m anticipating the 0z NAM to lower its snowfall output here in about an hour.

  • McCabe58

    Lol I love how everyone is already giving up hope.. I would consider a “dud” as a dusting to an inch and this seems to be more of a 2-4″ type storm, with locally higher amounts possible.

  • weatherbro

    That’s still pretty lame lol. Seems like that’s all we ever get.

  • Freeze Miser

    I haven’t given up, McCabe. I am a self avowed “wish caster” but I do look at the models. I am rooting for a hefty storm with a lot of snow. I love reading the speculations of others on this blog….keep it up!

  • thomasmidwest

    Nam coming out now we will see what it does

  • Adam Penney

    Oh no. I want the big one. Really do. But as has been stated several times, this is not the type of storm that typically produces the big time snows around here.

    Doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t, it just means its not likely. Love the 6+ inch snowfalls, just don’t think this is going to be one of them.

  • melafinatu

    Cosmic:

    Well hello MT from “other” station! Glad u could join Gary’s blog. A little advice; don’t have you’re “name” link to Fox4 website. It kinda ruins your disguise.

    Derek

  • McCabe58

    Lmao idk who cosmic is, but that kinda does resemble Gary

  • Emaw

    Oh my, that is hilarious, spitting image!

  • WeatherNerd

    NAM not backing off…

  • New data is in! Hang on bloggers. As impressive as the new NAM is let’s wait until Sunday to see if the other models and this NAM model continue to show this potential. I am impressed with how it forms right over Las Vegas. It could even snow here.

    Have a great Saturday night.

    Gary

    • Dobber

      Gary, I know you are on vacation. I am surprised none of the other meteorologists have updated the blog. If you were here I know you would have! Probably twice! Just a little disappointed.

  • mukustink

    I told you that you might 6-8 in Vegas!

  • mukustink

    might get 6-8

  • Adam Penney

    Yes, NAM slowly trending towards the GFS. Now a 6 inch max over the metro, was 8-9 inches on the previous runs.

  • teamster83

    when do you think the nws will start putting out winter storm watches

  • weatherbro

    Won’t happen for our area. We’re only expected to get 1-3″ which might warrant an advisory.

  • mukustink

    No advisories until mid afternoon I would suspect. They will wait until the model runs in mid morning before putting anything out. To much difference in the models.

  • Dobber

    2-4 , maybe more!

  • Jerome36

    I’m predicting 3.5 near my office ~96′ above ground north of MK and 5.25 at my house near K7 and College…EB#1 what are you thinking?

  • farmingnolkes

    Still see 4 to 10 inches for the area

  • Adam Penney

    No winter storm watches will be needed. Only advisory level snows.

    • mattmaisch

      Adam,

      Are you just completely discounting the NAM at this point? Certainly if the 6-8″ that it is forecasting comes to fruition, both watches and warnings will be issued. I’m not implying that the NAM will win out, but I certainly won’t be surprised if it does. It seems as though you will be. I still think its far too early to be able to definitively say that this will only be an advisory level snow. Just my thoughts.

  • Kcchamps

    the latest NAM still has .50-.75″ of precip for the metro

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012123000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060″

    shows 7-8″ for the metro

  • Adam Penney

    I agree Matt. It’s to early to call. I probably should use better wording. Not discounting the NAM, just feel its unlikely to be a 6+ inch storm. I tend to like maturing/strengthening storms for the bigger storms here.

    But I do agree. If the GFS trends in the NAM’s direction, watches and warnings would indeed be needed.

  • mattmaisch

    Well, it appears the GFS is the first to blink in this stare down. The highest area of precip has moved north, and this version is the highest snowfall total yet for the GFS when it comes to this storm. It still doesn’t match the NAM, but it’s the highest total yet by the GFS.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012123000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066″

  • Kcchamps

    looks like the GFS is finally coming around

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    latest NAM snow map

  • Kcchamps

    the 00z GFS has .25-.50″ of precip for the metro, which is about double to what the 18z had for us. So maybe it is staring to come more inline with the NAM?

  • mattmaisch

    Couldn’t help but notice that George showed the secondary round of snowfall on Monday night that the NAM has been hanging it’s hat on the whole time during his broadcast. Seems like their in house model is indicating this now as well.

  • McCabe58

    Come on Adam! Wishcast with us for once! :P

  • hushpook

    Looks like George is just playing out the string. Oh well.

  • fire508

    Yes. The GFS is also hinting at a 2nd round just like the NAM

  • Looks like we are in for 6 to 8 inch pounding!
    George was looking rough at 10:17!

  • Adam Penney

    Bring on the snow! Lol ;)

  • weatherbro

    Surprised there hasn’t been a blog update.

  • StillBelievingItsNotButter

    Newbie here wanting some snow in Topeka. Weather info from local stations here is pretty lame. The forecast for the area was 1-3″ but here I’m seeing maps that indicate as much as 7-8″… Why such a substantial difference on a storm that is only ~2 days away?

  • mattmaisch

    00Z GFS snowfall map according to wxcaster. Again, not as aggressive as the NAM, but the most aggressive run we’ve seen yet.

    “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif”

  • McCabe58

    I don’t like that one Matt

    • mattmaisch

      I don’t like it all that much either, but it’s a step in the right direction for the GFS. Clearly, the model that has shifted toward the other is the GFS toward the NAM, and that’s a lot better than the alternative.

  • Adam Penney

    Why not McCabe? You’ve been saying 2-4 all along. That’s basically what that map shows.

  • RickMckc

    Looks like 0z NAM is trending a bit further south with the bullseye of precip. KC is still in it, but if you compare with the 18z the orientation has shifted from a SW to NW to more of an E to W. Also, it looks like the bullseye has also expanded to the west. Should be interesting to see how it plays out … at least we have something worth talking about in the weather department.

    In the “for those who care to know” department that “thing sticking out of my chin” as MUKUSTINK wondered about above is my granddaughter’s arm. Yeah, I’m a grandpa.

  • McCabe58

    I know lol, but you should know by now that I want as much snow as possible!!

  • fire508

    Yea, I think tomorrows off hr 6z, and deff on hr 12z, will have the best handle on things. Also think GFS will continue to become more inline with the NAM as far as path, speed, shear. But I do think the GFS will be .1 less on qpf than the NAM.

  • McCabe58

    I expect either champs, Matt or Adam to be posting the new data all night lol

  • thomasmidwest

    Im going to bed but setting my alarm for 230 to see the models come out lol

  • weatherbro

    Make that three.

  • Kcchamps

    the new NAM is starting to roll out!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012123006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054″

    here is what the latest NAM is thinking. It has gone down in total precip. and has .50-.60″ of precip

  • weatherbro

    Seems like its getting weaker with each run. Finally coming to its senses.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif”

    latest NAM shows 3-6″ for the metro

  • weatherbro

    Fun while it lasted lol.

    • Kcchamps

      remember, this is the off hour NAM, so I would wait for the 12z to see what it has to say. Off hours are 06z and 18z

  • weatherbro

    Yeah but it seems as though its giving us gradually lower precip totals with each run. Hopefully that changes with the morning runs.

  • Kole Christian

    I predicted 5 inches for Christmas Day, boy was I wrong. This storm I’ll go with 2 inches for my home north of Parkville. (Near mci)

  • McCabe58

    Weatherbro, have faith. Reverse psychology doesn’t work.

  • Kole Christian

    Wheatherbro
    I agree with you, even though its an off run, we can’t discount it. We should still get enough to make the ground white though.

  • I think 3-5 inches of snow is a good bet around kc but the nws is downplaying it saying a couple of inches and an advisory isnt needed at this conjuncture.

  • kellyinkc

    Well, the NWS is saying 2-4 inches
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • WOW, McGabby58 was posting 18 hours straight yesterday & this morning…