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February Thunderstorms Are Possible Early Thursday Morning!

Good morning bloggers,

First of all, I would like to thank everyone who sent us some nice messages and presents yesterday.  It was National Weather Person’s Day:

wxp

 

We received cupcakes, beer, ice cream, cookies, and some nice cards.  I said on the air last night to Jack Harry that there should be a National Sportscasters Day! And, he just gave me a strange look.

A storm system is approaching the area and we are going for a 100% chance of rain later tonight with a few heavy thunderstorms possible.  The storm that is passing by us is now forecast to become a major northeastern storm system.   And, there are two more storm systems that will likely affect us within the next seven days with more rain, and possibly snow next Tuesday.  We will look deeper into that part of the LRC later today or tomorrow.

Forecast time-line:

  • Now-4 PM:  A few clouds increasing with a high of 60°
  • 4 PM – Midnight:  Becoming mostly cloudy with showers/thunderstorms developing by around or shortly after midnight
  • Midnight – 6 AM:  Rain likely with a few thunderstorms. Heavy rain is possible with up to an inch in a few local spots.  Temperatures drop into the 40s
  • 6 AM – Noon:  Rain and thunderstorms continue, but they begin shifting to the southeast and the rain will end. The temperature bottoms out near 43°
  • Noon – 4 PM:  Sunshine returning with temperatujump rising back to 51°

Here is the forecast I showed at 10 PM last night, with the new color and text that I am just testing out:

5

A weak cold front will be approaching with an upper level storm moving across north of Kansas City.  This will lead to a nearly 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms later tonight.

Blog4

Have a great day. We will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight!

Gary

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41 comments to February Thunderstorms Are Possible Early Thursday Morning!

  • Skylar

    You say up to an inch in a few local spots? What range do you think more general amounts will be?

  • mattmaisch

    Sunday/Monday storm looks like it may be the biggest snow producer of the winter through the central section of the nation. Unfortunately for us, there seems to be very little chance that it takes aim on Kansas City. Models continue to insist it will turn well to the north of our area. Looks like it targets parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    That same GFS run 6z. Shows another snow storm on the 17th. If we believe the models are correct then we will have snow on the 17th. If not then the models may trend more to the blended solution and we will get snow on the 10-11th.

    Models have let me down all year. So I don’t even know what to believe. Will just have to wait and see.

  • Hockeynut69

    Let’s just hope regardless of what the models show that we get some form of precipitation from these systems. They certainly wont be drought busters but I will take anything at this point and dont care what form it comes in.

    I am sure Jack would get a lot of great gifts from his huge following of KU fans, lol.

  • mgsports

    Lets hope for no more Snow.

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    Can you tell me which date in December and October correlate, per your theory, to this particular event?

    Thanks!

    • yewtrees

      Jerry;

      Gary had answered your question. Go back to the yesterday’s blog.
      ————————————————–
      Jerry,

      It is the storm that produced rain around the 15th of December. It’s related to that storm and to the one on Octob er 25th.

      Gary

      • Theo

        If that’s the case, then where is the much wetter storm? November 5th? Now you have a math problem. That’s only 45 days from Dec. 20th.

        Oct. 25th and Nov. 5th are the only choices folks. There were no other storms.

        Nov. 11th was another wetter storm. I don’t see where it repeated either.

    • Jerry,

      I did yesterday. But, let’s go over it again! We have been expecting, and forecasting this part of the weather pattern to arrive this week and it is right on schedule. If you go back to LRC cycle 1 and cycle 2 you will see this part of the weather pattern produced rain in each cycle. On October 25th, as the Super-Storm Sandy part of the weather pattern was first about to bomb New Jersey, Kansas City had 0.12″ of rain from the lead system. On December 14th and 15th, we had 0.42″ of rain from the same lead system, just days before our first inch of snow, which is again showing up for early next week.

      • Jerry

        But superstorm Sandy was on October 30, not the 25th.

        So does tomorrow’s east cost blizzard match Sandy? If so, then what does tonight’s rain match for us?

        This doesn’t line up.

  • f00dl3

    Did you guys really have to make the lightning cause explosions and strike the road? I think that’s a bit dramatic…

    As for snow, I want more! Nothing is more fun than a bicycle ride in the snow when roads are just wet! Sure, slush and ice may freeze to the bike frame, but the drive train is just fine due to the constant passing of the chain through the gears that prevent ice build-up.

    • Fred Souder

      Are you NUTS!? I guess biking around here in the snow might not be so bad. Last time for me was when we were doing mountain passes in Yellowstone in august and it started snowing. Sure, it was beautiful, but the intense suffering took the edge off the experience. Doing that cured any desire I might have of future biking in the snow.

    • It was a lightning bolt flipbook that just happened to have an illusion of hitting the street on that graphic.

  • Theo

    Looks like Omaha to Minneapolis for Monday-Tuesday snow. Still too early to make a call on amounts, but could bring 6-10″ for southern MN into central WI.

    Not sold on heavy thunderstorms tonight. Squeezing out .50 looks generous. Widespread .25 is more likely with isolated .50.

    • mowermike

      Theo,

      Could you please predict under .10 inches for this rain potential tonight? You have done this for the last 3 rain events and we have received more each time.

      Long range:

      ECMWF long range forecast for the rest of this month shows colder trends with some storms thrown in. We may finish the month(starting around the 11th or 12th) colder and potentially more white. Winter may have one last punch, although the punches haven’t been all that strong so far… I think we average the most snow in FEB. Still early…

      • Theo

        Really Mower? Because the data doesn’t support it.

        Why don’t you waste your time and copy, paste those predictions? I have consistently and correctly predicted less precipitation than has been forecast by the station.

        I don’t recall you being correct about much this winter, other than your traditional fuzzy math, which matches your hero’s.

        • Dobber

          “I don’t recall you being correct about much this winter, other than your traditional fuzzy math, which matches your hero’s.” who is his hero theo? Give us your prediction for the month.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Theo. I agree models have accepted the version 1 from a few days ago. Looks like we will be missed again.

    I think tonight’s rain is around the .30 mark based off models. But again they have been terrible for us.

  • mattmaisch

    This map pretty well sums up the last few winters. Granted, we are on the norther edge of the second storm next week, but still..

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=180″

  • mowermike

    Matt,

    That’s a funny little piece of energy that hangs out over the SW and lags behind the main storm this weekend that the GFS is predicting. Should this storm happen, cold air will be in place following the weekend warmth.

    Cold air also looks to be fairly widespread following this weekend also.(per the GFS) Maybe some really cold air towards the middle of the month and beyond.

    • Theo

      And please, Mower, since you are the self-recognized expert on the LRC, please match up the dates that Gary refuses to.

      • Dobber

        You are asking a lot out of Gary. Gary does not have a crystal ball! By far better than the others in Kc save for joe l

  • mgsports

    I say some Thunder/Lighting Tonight hail would like between 1-/40 percent,Wind 100 percent and Severe Weather o to 10, percent.
    For next Weeks to Warm for any Snow but Heavy Rain with Thunder/Lighting and so on.

  • mowermike

    Theo,

    That’s the problem with you, can’t you just discuss stuff without referring to me as “Mike the mower” or “Gary’s #1 fan” or “Gary’s Hero”

    I just state my opinions and argue the facts. I have posted the facts several times and I have also stated sometimes that I just don’t know.

    “Really Mower? Because the data doesn’t support it.” (you stated a while back that mets and bloggers rely too much on the model data. Now your supporting it?

    “I have consistently and correctly predicted less precipitation than has been forecast by the station”

    This is not true at all, the proof is in the previous blogs and comment sections. Your predictions have been way off of late. I’m not saying you haven’t had any correct ones, because you have, but since Jan. 10th many of your forecasts have been off. Many facts to prove it.

  • Jerry

    For reference, this is what was offered on January 25th from Gary:

    _____

    Week of 02/05/13:
    A cold and stormy week is in the Weather 2020 forecast. This will be an active week of weather across the plains states. Expect a strong and fast moving storm to move across between Monday and Wednesday with snow likely across Nebraska and Iowa and a few rain showers farther south. A powerful storm system will be likely either with that mid-week storm or a weekend storm system around February 10th. Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines will likely have snow from this second storm. This is probably not a great week for outdoor activities.

    Week of 02/12/13:
    Weather 2020 is forecasting the part of the weather pattern, that produced a blizzard across parts of this region in a past cycle, will be returning this week. So, we are forecasting a major snowstorm and potential blizzard that will likely impact Omaha and Des Moines. Kansas City will likely see snow or a cold rain early in the week, and possibly later in the week as well. But, that second storm may affect areas farther south like Joplin and Wichita or even farther south than this if it does exactly what it did in the last cycle. We expect it to be a bit farther north this time. Arctic air will be near by so expect below average temperatures and above average precipitation.

    • Jerry,

      It’s all on target. The cold air retreated, but the fast moving system is moving across tonight, and it is going to bombard the east coast. The forecast for the east coast has that in it. And, the weekend storm is there. For Kansas City this season, we aren’t near one of the hot spots. I may have worded that a bit strongly, but it is all happening.

      Gary

      • Jerry

        “It’s all on target.”

        ? Really? Are we reading the same forecast?

        Because what I read is that for the week of 02/05 (this week), you offered: “A powerful storm system will be likely either with that mid-week storm or a weekend storm system around February 10th. Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines will likely have snow from this second storm. This is probably not a great week for outdoor activities.”

        However, (1) We have had no snow this week and I see none in your current 7-day forecast for Kansas City, and (2) It’s actually been a great week for outdoor activities – lots of dry days in the 50s and 60s which is a treat for the heart of winter.

  • McCabe58

    It’s so easy to be “accurate” by just going for a little less than what the weather team is saying…. Lol get real.

  • mowermike

    “I have consistently and correctly predicted less precipitation than has been forecast by the station”

    Here’s a few that would argue against the above statement:

    Theo
    January 28, 2013 at 1:08 PM
    May see some flakes in the air Wednesday, but no accumulation. Also, may hear some rumbles of thunder tomorrow, but less than a 10th of an inch of rain. Main part of the storm will be east.(we had .75 inches to 1.59 inches across the city)

    Theo
    January 11, 2013 at 1:26 PM
    I say keep wishcasting. If you pray hard enough, it will happen.

    “There is no arctic air from now to 21 days out. Temps will only go below average 2 or 3 days during the next 3 weeks. NO SNOW!! That puts us into February. Winter only has 4 weeks left by then.( just throw this one in for fun)”

    “Theo
    January 10, 2013 at 6:54 AM
    Pathetic is an understatement. Won’t even get a tenth in KC.”(we did receive .20-.60 in the city)

    There’s more, but you get the point.

    • Mike,

      Let’s try not to call out other bloggers forecasts. If we are wrong, well, I have been used to the criticism for 25 years. I still try to get every forecast exactly right, it’s a lot of pressure. But, I can handle it. Sometimes when you are right your wrong, and when your wrong your wrong. Jeff Penner told me that statement years ago.

      Anyway, don’t worry about what others are forecasting. Just try to make your own prediction and let’s have fun. I will start a new blog this afternoon and we can get everyone’s prediction for how much rain will fall. Look for this new blog around 2:30 PM.

      Have a great day!

    • Theo

      Mike, per KCI (or does my forecast have to be your backyard):

      Jan 28th : Trace
      Jan 29th : .59 (still can’t find the .75 to 1.50 wide spread rains)
      Jan 30th : .12
      Jan 31st : Trace

      Jan 10th : .24
      Jan 11th : .01

      Jan 11th – Jan 28th : .08

  • mowermike

    Gary,

    I hear ya. I don’t do this with anybody else, I just do it with Theo because he acts superior to most bloggers with his comments. He talks down to everyone….its very obvious.

    Moving forward….

  • sedsinkc

    People are so hard on Gary, but he’s a pro and has repeatedly proven he can take the criticism. Speaking of being a pro, I saw where an on-air TV met from Saint Louis took to his FB page last Sunday to write a lengthy, scalding rebuke of the people who contacted him and in a not-so-nice fashion criticized his forecast after STL received a somewhat unexpectedly large snowfall last weekend. I was surprised at how angry and defensive the tone of this TV met’s post was.

  • sedsinkc

    While our weather here has been mostly boring, parts of New England are going to get blasted with feet of snow this weekend, it looks like. This would be the return of the Sandy storm part of the LRC pattern, right Gary? Sandy hit on October 29, which is 103 days prior to Feb. 9. I have doubts about the usefulness of this LRC theory sometimes, but at other times it seems clear that it exists and can predict future storms.

    • MikeL

      I was just logging in to ask about this myself. Boston is in a Blizzard Watch and I was thinking this was the “Sandy” part of the LRC. I have a friend in southern Maine that I will be checking in with…should be fun for them.