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Fantasy Or Reality: Looking At Two Possible Storm Systems

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is quite calm across the United States this morning.  The deep south is having a winter to remember, while in KC the frustrations “somewhat” continue. I put somewhat in quotes because since winter began on December 21st Kansas City has actually had nearly 5″ of snow. This is in less than a month, which is actually close to average for this first month of true winter.  But, at the same time we are having an historically long period of time without a 3″ snow storm. If we make it to February 4th, then it will be four full 365-day stretches (years) without even one storm that produced 3″ of snow. There is a chance that Kansas City will not quite get to this 4-year record, which is over 400 days longer than any other stretch of the lack of a 3″ storm in KC recorded history.  There are two candidates, the second of which has perhaps a chance of breaking the streak, albeit a very low chance. Is it just another fantasy storm? Let’s take a look.

Today’s surface map:

1

This first map in today’s blog entry features a very calm weather pattern across the United States. The Arctic air is in the process of a massive retreat north back into Canada. It will be lurking up there, however, so we are far from done from having another few Arctic blasts this winter.  But, for now, this is great news as I think we all need to thaw out a bit. This morning is 22 degrees warmer than yesterday morning near KC already.  The focus will shift out west to that big Pacific storm system. The bottom part of this storm will begin breaking off and forming into a storm that will emerge out into the plains this weekend.

2

The energy that is going to produce this weekend’s storm system is not even a storm at all today. It is at the base of the big eastern Pacific trough as you can see above. This is very important. Why? This means we are far from having the correct solution from the computer models for Sunday and Monday.  The energy will eventually break off and form into the storm that will impact the plains states later this weekend. Take a look at the GFS solution, but once again there are other solutions out there and new solutions to come when the models come out in the  next few hours.

3

The GFS model has the storm forecast to be centered near the Kansas/Nebraska border by 6 PM Sunday. The European Model has been farther south. This farther south solution makes a huge difference on what will happen where you live. For KC to have snow from this storm it will need to track farther south by around 1/2 of a state and then we will have a rather lively discussion within a day or two.  But, we are so used to getting missed we just have to keep our expectations low.  The energy that will potentially produce the storm in ten days is also showing up on this map. I tracked it back and it is in the area I am pointing to over the Pacific Ocean.

4

The map above, and the forecast snowfall below show a solution that would end the history journey with no 3″ snowfalls. But, it is just another fantasy storm? Look at this! I might as well show it.  The chance that it is fantasy is very high!

5

So, here is your question today. Is this fantasy or will it happen? Let’s vote in the blog today.  There are no in-betweens. Vote for “The storm will happen and break the KC 4-year streak” or “The storm is fake, and it is another fantasy storm that will never happen”, at least in KC.  Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling pattern known as the LRC.  Here is the link to the blog on Weather2020 so you can join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great Thursday! Tomorrow, we will look at how the first three cycles have produced, or not produced!

Gary

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