Good morning bloggers,
Here is a picture I took at 7 AM this morning with an isolated thunderstorm moving across Kansas City. You can see the rain shaft behind Breezy and Stormy as it drifted southeast:
It’s FRIDAY! The day began with some dark clouds and a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Yesterday reached 95° by the end of the day making it official that the heat wave reached day 13. Today will be the fourteenth day of this major heat wave if it hits our forecast high of 95°. Then, 100° heat will likely return Saturday with a big jump to extreme heat on Sunday. The anticyclone is forecast to be southwest of Kansas City with this next part of the major heat wave and this will place us in light northwest flow. Weak disturbances, like the one moving through early this morning, will track across Iowa and Nebraska clipping our viewing area the next few days and thunderstorms are possible.
The anticyclone will be a bit farther south than it has been during this heat wave. As you can see below, it is forecast to strengthen this weekend over Oklahoma and Texas and this places our region in northwest flow aloft:
Can you see the text with the number 12 plotted over Utah, Colorado, into Montana and spreading out into Nebraska? Each one of these 12s is a weak upper level disturbance and some of them may be strong enough to produce some showers and thunderstorms. With our area being in northwest flow we will have to look to the northwest and see if anything is riding our way in the stream of air aloft flowing around the anticyclone. There is a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend and a few will be likely over our viewing area, but they won’t be wide spread enough to increase our chance of rain to more than 20%.
We are in a position that will be creating the conditions for what could be the hottest day of the summer so far on Sunday. Extremely warm air just above the surface is forecast to move out over our viewing area. The NAM model is just coming out as I am finishing the writing of this blog entry this morning. There is a temperature gradient forecast from eastern Kansas to northeastern Missouri. The 850 mb temperature forecast near Lawrence is 27.5°C while at the same time it is 20°C near Kirksville, MO. This contrast shows that there is a lower level frontal zone that will be pushing into the viewing area Saturday and passing well off to our northeast by Sunday. West and southwest of Lawrence will likely experience a surge to near or above 105° on Saturday and this air is forcing it’s way into our local area which creates a difficult forecast for Sunday:
The baroclinic zone (temperature contrast zone) that will be laying across our area Saturday evening should be a focusing area for thunderstorm development. Even if thunderstorms form, by Sunday conditions will likely be favorable for extreme heat. If this forcing of the warm air over our heads at 5,000 feet verifies on Sunday, then we are going to have our hottest day yet. And, we will finally take that strong run at the first 110° day at KCI Airport. It has never been that hot at KCI. Let’s look at the 850 mb forecast map that just came out valid at 4 PM Sunday:
As you can see above, the axis of the warmest air at 5,000 feet above us is forecast to be right along I-70. This may be overdone a bit, but it shows what the potential is for extreme record breaking heat on Sunday. This model has a forecast of 117° near Garnett, KS. WOW! This is likely over forecast a bit, but 105 to 112 degree heat is increasingly likely in our viewing area Sunday. There will be a weak wind shift line/very weak cold front entering the viewing area from the north which will also complicate this forecast. As we reach extreme temperatures near and south of this wind shift line isolated thunderstorms may form with the potential for microbursts.
Thank you for stopping by and reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over this potential extreme weather event on 41 Action News today and tonight, after the Olympics Opening ceremony.
Gary
Good morning Gary and the weather team-just an observation—we also hit over 95 making today day 14 for the current heat wave of this awful summer. When the NWS or even TV stations make their low temp forecast—is the thermometer way out in the boondock under shade—the reason I ask is that where we live there is not the huge amounts of concrete just two roads—this mornings temp on our patio read 77—our TV stations forecasted a low of 70 and even tomorrow morning another forecasted 69—we should be cooler than in the main city but are not even though we have had more rain than other parts of the county. Also I noticed a nice north wind this morning, a little drier air, but again not much change in the air mass-could we be clipped by some thunderstorms over the next 7-10? Is there any indication that this High pressure will go away or shrink forever from us? Thanks for the blog information–Michael/Berryton/Topeka
Man, are you the same guy as “Mower Mike”? You kind of have the same vibe going on. I’ve noticed Mower Mike has disappeared.
Henley,
No, Mower Mike is someone else. Baseball Mike and Mower Mike have been loyal bloggers for many years.
Mike,
Low temperatures are tricky. It is much easier to forecast the high than the low. Lows can vary quite a bit from location to location. It will depend on where your thermometer is located. Remember, the official temperatures are taken from a thermometer inside a white ventilated box 5 feet above the ground. Topeka could be close to 110 on Sunday.
Gary,I,ve reviewed many prior dates,at random,with in a 5mo. period to see if there was any break-down of the LRC.The dates where from 1-1-12 to 5-29-12.The LRC was in a 45 day cycle from 1-1 approx.4-15 and performing well.A deep trough was located over the western CONUS which cut-off lows under cutting the ridge across the central midwest,giving are area decent prec.for K.C..After 4-15 the trough broke down,and for the next 45 days the western/central CONUS was in a more W/E frontal flow w/ little to no prec…My question is,How did the LRC predict this new cycle that occurred after 4-15 to present?
kevin,
I could sit down with you and go through the entire pattern. It would take a good solid hour to go over the cycles. The jet stream is reaching it’s lowest level of energy during the next two weeks with the very gradual transition into a strengthening jet stream as fall approaches. The best cycle to use for this current pattern would be the most recent cycle in June, and the first cycle in October when this pattern began. The energy in the flow now will most resemble the flow from May and June right now. If you look at the last cycle you can see why weeks ago we concluded that this heat wave would last most of the summer with a run at the highest temperature ever later in July or August. It is happening.
Gary by loyal blogger do you mean they agree with everything you post lol..;-)
What temps are you talking about for Sunday? Are we looking at 106-110 range?
MUKU,
You are one of the top most loyal bloggers as well! What does that tell you? Happy FRIDAY! I appreciate you coming in and sharing the weather experience with us.
Gary
Heve I not been a loyal blogger also????I follow this blog religiously,and add substance,other than just a bunch of gibberish.e.i. Tornado videos,self help instruction videos,topics of knowledge,and debate,kindness(most of the time?) Can I get a shout out also…By the way,I ve posted a question that I,d like you to respond too….Kevin.
Kevin,
You could be close to being in the top five somewhere between one and five. Positive or negative, as long as the criticism isn’t attacking personally, it is welcome.
Tush…you do have alot of great info to offer as well as your videos are badazz.However, you take away from all that by your countless number of attacks on folks on this blog. Ive been relieved to see you and MUKU have been fairly positive as of late!
Much like you, I get annoyed by dumb comments/people but there are ways to respond without being mean and down right nasty…
Just my two cents as Id place you on the loyal blogger list but then again, im nobody…
By the way…cant wait to see some new storm video if and when we ever get some weather
Each time You enter this blog,You become judgmental!!When are You going to learn calling out someone,who You have no idea who they are,will respond…You are an IDIOT!!!So why don,t you pull that pipe out of your TUSH,put it in your mouth,and blow on that.
I usually try to overlook your comments,because Your a COOPERHEAD.:)
Tush….lets hope we never meet…
Gary,One more question.The cut-off lows that we experienced this last winter into the early spring just a fluke to the over all pattern to the LRC, for the remainder of the spring/summer cycle? Other words,were we just lucky to have had any prec.this last winter?
Those lows have continued. This is how Texas has avoided most of this serious drought. The lows have been down there and not large enough scale to affect us.
The “same” low gave us rain around Sep 17-18, Nov 2-3, Dec 19-20, Feb.3-4, March 19-22, May 6-7, and June 20-21, about every 46 days . There are seasonal differences, as the iterations in Sep, May, and June went north of us and were weaker.
Gary, are you seeing any chances showing up for Aug 7-8? That would seem to be the next iteration of that low.
Thanks for every ones feedback…Try to stay COOL this weekend…All-in-all the LRC has held its water…Congrates Gary,I was becoming a doubting Thomas. My head is clearer now after researching.
I wish I had researched before making any rude,or lewd comments about the LRC in the past..My apologies..Next time I,ll do my home work.I was lazy.I also should have research further,Upper-level jet,how it split off the western coast of Canada this season,but my energies been sapped(mild case of bronchitis).I,ll try at it another day. Again thanks….Kevin
If you find a way to make a “lewd” comment about the LRC, you have a dirtier mind than anyone I know!
You are correct.I,m beginning to sound like Ed McMahon,talking to Johnny Carson.”lewd comments about..ahhhhh….Just,you are correct???
Tush there’s no debating that there is a “pattern” to the weather. I think the point that gets debated is the usefullness of the “pattern” in long range forecasting and accuracy of the long range forecasting. There are just way to many variables for a long range forecast to be accurate. For one to say that they can be accurate at long range forecasting is where the problem lies.
In a way,I agree.The variables,including the latitude&longitude,of each wave,storm,are a serious dilemma.So long range forecasting will be a problem.Temps. and prec. is what everyone wants to know,not that there,s a storm some where in the mid-west…Garys prediction for a normal amount of prec.for are area,comes to attention..,along w/ his May forecast for severe weather.
This summer will definitely be one we remember for quite a while. It’s kind of sad that when I took our dog out last night and it was “only” 90 degrees I thought it was a really nice evening. Any other summer that probably would’ve felt like a hot evening.
My sister and her family visited from California this past weekend and they kept saying it felt like the surface of the sun here. I said, nah, you’ve just gotten soft living out on the coast! =)
Smiley,
I felt the same about today’s 94 degrees…. it felt like air conditioned air hitting me around quitting time, I cant see how any one over the age of five could forget this summer!!
Glad to join the blog.
I’ve heard a lot of people say that because it is so hot and dry now, that this winter will be very wet and cold with a lot of ice and snow. Any truth to this or just gibberish?