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Evening Update: A Shift In Thinking For Tonight

Good evening bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now – 8 PM: One band of rain without thunder or lightning moves across. High humidity with temperatures and dew points near 78 degrees
  • 8 PM -4 AM: A few heavy thunderstorms are possible
  • 4 AM – 10 AM: Heavy thunderstorms are likely in the area with 1″ to 4″ possible

The monsoon disturbance had a rather major impact on the potential for the release of energy into severe thunderstorms, but it may not have had enough of an impact on the flooding potential. Remember it is July 26th, so there is tremendous amounts of low level moisture available for tonight’s thunderstorm event. ¬†Will it form? Well, there are already signs in Nebraska early this evening and it seems to be targeting KC and areas to the north and east. Let’s take a look:

1

These two maps show the 5 PM temperatures:

2

The rain has caused this developing set up, and it is far from certain, but this looks to me as if there should be a zone of heavy thunderstorms that will be slowly moving across the area. This would allow for the potential flooding event? If it is under 2″ there will not be much flooding. We will learn a lot more soon.

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We will be monitoring this closely. The threat of severe thunderstorms is very low, but the flooding risk is a bit higher. Have a great evening.  Thunderstorms are most likely in this zone:

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Gary

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