Good evening bloggers,
A winter storm will likely affect our region Wednesday night into Thursday. This storm is not a “normal” storm. There are many questions that we are still working on answering. I am coming on the air in minutes to forecast “1″ or possibly much more”. We will try to have our first snow/sleet accumulation forecast on the 10 PM newscast tonight, perhaps the 6 PM if I have time to put it together. It has been a busy day.
The latest data has come in and it is still fairly consistent. The NAM model is predicting more than an inch liquid equivalent, whereas the GFS is forecasting closer to 1/2″. The GFS is a bit colder and more likely snow. I am still analyzing the data and will have a blog update around 9 PM tonight.
Don’t forget, our special on Climate Change is on at 10 PM tonight as well.
Have a great evening.
Gary
If you’re hyping climate change, I’ll make sure to turn off the TV.
i second that
And I’ll make it a third.
I’ll make it a fourth.
I’ll go one step further and call the content before it even airs:
- The climate is changing.
- Weather is getting eXtreme!!!
- Some skeptics claim it is not man-made. (Debbie downer voice)
- But the consensus of scientists is that humans do contribute!
[flash to footage of smokestacks and car exhaust]
- Wild weather. Scratch that – eXTreme weather!
[footage of floods and wildfires]
- Is the drought a result of climate change?!? Some say YES!
[footage of cracked soil]
- Was Sandy – eXTreme Sandy – the DEVASTATING rare east-coast hurricane a result of CC?!!
[big surf]
- What about tornadoes? They may get worse with CC!
- All weather may get more WiLd and eXtreme with CC.
- We must watch.
Amen. Second anyone starts talking that mess anymore, I tune out.
Then don’t watch.
And I won’t.
I don’t care either way, but what do you guys have against climate change, or the theory of it?
Climate change is real. Man-made climate change is questionable. Did man make the ice age? The earth warms and the earth cools. I won’t be watching.
Now that makes more sense. I was thinking they were saying it isn’t real. I agree Beckysma, it is more of a cyclical event. It has happened in the past, and it will happen again. Same for “ice ages.”
phoney
97% of scientists agree climate change is happening and that it’s man made. That’s a pretty strong consensus.
So one can argue about what is best to do given that information. But it seems silly to suppose it’s a 50/50 proposition or that we don’t know what’s causing it to happen. The people who study this and have degrees to back it up have weighed in on this.
“The good thing about science is that it’s true whether or not you believe in it.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson
97% of scientists agree climate change is happening and that it’s man made.
Bullfrogs. 97% of scientists could care less about the climate. You should say 97% of climate scientists …” and that too is a falsehood. You need to look past the BS put out by the AGW industry.
And All the people saying the temperatures are warming are either liars or ignorant. Just this year East Anglia (England – sometimes referred to as the Home of AGW) has finally admitted that the data from their 30,000 temperature recording and reporting stations around the world show that the temperatures on good old Earth HAVE NOT CHANGED FOR 16 YEARS!!!
And the guy who came up with the global warming AGW theories (the guy that Algore got it from) later claimed that he was wrong… and has been totally ignored since.
I understand that kshb is an NBC affiliate, and must therefore cleave to the official Extreme Left Wing Party Line including the claim that AGW exists. The ONLY reason I’ve been watching what is really an ultra-liberal station is because of Gary’s weather forecasts. But good weather forecasts or not – if y’all keep pushing this AGW crap at me, I’m gone.
AGW is a HUGE fraud. Follow the money.
We won’t, lol.
I’m out the second he tows the left wing propaganda.
Gary,
If this ULL were to track further south, what would be the primary factor that would/could cause it to do so?
Thanks,
Matt
Matt,
This storm has a kicker upstream moving towards the west coast. There is really no chance this comes out much farther south. There are factors that make this so unusual. And, I will put those in tonight’s blog.
Gary
Thanks Gary, one other quick one. Will the storm that is projected to be near Nova Scotia have any bearing on the track of our storm, or just the storm that is trailing behind ours?
Thanks again.
Matt
LoL..okay, that is the safest precipitation forecast amount I have ever heard…talk about covering yourself. “1 inch or possibly much more”. LoL LoL Lol…it may be better to say you have not idea Gary.
1″ to much more? I will take those odds. Talk about hedging your bets. C’mon Gary. You can do better than that.
I’m going to follow Gary’s lead. I predict 1-12 inches of frozen precipitation of some kind. LoL
Yea. Have to say that was pretty weak.
That’s like saying I want to lose 1-20 pounds. Anywhere in there and I am a success.
I believe that Gary is talking about an inch of moisture with this storm. Not an inch of snow.
Jacob,
No, I am talking about an inch of sleet/snow or possibly much more. Now, what does “possibly much more” mean? I will narrow it down beginning at 10 PM tonight. This is more than two days away still.
We can see anywhere from 1″ to much more. Lol.
no 1 knows I’m sticking with my guns n going with 3 to 5 mix precip
At the very least it sounds like Gary will be wearing his snow sweater.
TWC currently predicts KC to have 6-12 inches while Accuweather predicts 4-8 inches
If you look at those maps they use they are very generalized and don’t jive with localized forecasts. I have seen TWC maps be off 100-200 miles at times. They get the general snow amounts right and pretty close to where the storm will hit, but it is not useful, IMO, for an actual forecast. At least not until its much closer to the event.
3 to 6 inches of a mix of precipitation – more sleet south, more snow north. Pretty sure at this point there will be no freezing rain in the 435 loop.
I think it’s quite possible if this thing tracks further south that it won’t have as much warm air advection, convection will rob our moisture feed, and we may get all snow – but only 3-5″ of it.
Gary just on air…he said most likely storm will be sleet and snow event and not so much freezing rain to worry about. Should start KC Metro Thursday by sunrise at 100% chance with high of 32 degrees Thursday. However, I believe he actually just said we will get at least an inch and “perhaps even more”…now that’s a safe estimation…??? I guess we obviously stand to potentially not get much from this “monster” we’ve been hyping for 3 days now? Confused…an inch seems an odd first number to throw out given all the other talk going on about this storm…I’m definitely no expert, though. I trust what you are saying Gary! Just a little confused
1″ or more! I’ll take any measurement above “0″ at this point. This weather the last 2 years seems like it’s giving all the amateurs and pro’s the fits on forecasting. Heck maybe longer. (of course lol) but let’s bring on the moisture!
I love it, this whole thing is freaking hysterical ! 1-12″ , “climate change specials” , and not to mention some of the comments today ! Pure gold, maybe the most entertaining day on here ever!
Winter Storm watch for Lawrence says moderate to heavy snow and ice accumulations possible as well as snow packed roads. They don’t touch amounts yet, which is fine more than two days out. I’m just thinking that saying one to possibly much more isn’t so much a prediction as it’s another way of saying I have no freaking idea how much. I will say this though, I haven’t seen anyone anywhere predict only one inch. This makes me think Gary really isn’t predicting one inch as a real possibility as much as he’s trying to cover himself for any possible eventuality at this point. I feel like Gary’s update since first thing this morning hasn’t really updated anything, except to say freezing rain looks out of the picture now. Granted that one piece of information is useful…I’ll give you that.
1″ to possibly much more…………way to go out on a limb. I’m forecasting light dark early this evening followed up by more extreme dark later tonight.
Now that is funny. Well done
LoL! Yeah, and I predict there will be some weather on Thursday…100% chance! It will be somewhere between cloudy and sunny, wet and dry, warm and cold. LOL
I’m going to say not not extreme dark, cloud cover will reflect city lights keeping it from not being too dark.
Better watch out! Those clouds are breaking up!
Anyone have any ideas or bets on when the KC Metro will be placed in any watches? Seems there is enough to do so if they’ve done it West of us at this point several hours ago…???
Yeah, they will. It’s still over 2 days a way, give it a little more time. Tomorrow sometime they will.
So we can assume an average of possibly .75 of liquid. If the majority of that were to fall as sleet, how many inches of sleet would pile up?
If we see melting on Thursday afternoon and then that water refreezing at night….ew thats nasty.
The NWS has taken off the Hazardous Weather statement that had been announcing the impending storm…is that just because today’s rain passsed?? Seems odd…or maybe they are in the process of updating to a watch statement??? It obviously has nor just gone “poof” at least yet it would seem…where’s the info?
If you look at this map “http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php” the white area is where a winter storm watch will be issued shortly.
I saw that wondered what the white shading was for.
Mabye they are working on it. They just posted the Winter Storm Watch for Lawrence, so they are obviously expecting some nasty weather over here.
The important question is, what is Bastardi’s latest take on the situation?
Emaw has got it right. That is the real question. Last time I looked on his site he hadn’t updated from 2/16. I think he might be traveling. As soon as I see an update from the Great One, I will post it up here. Oh Great Bastardi, we are not worthy!
I’m thinking Gary’s forecast will be: 10-12 north of kc, metro kc 6-8, south of kc 5-8 I think that’s what Gary forecast will be
Will it snow on Thursday?
Well Gary did just say he is leaning towards the “much more” over 1″
Speaking of Bastardi, think they’ll have his take on the “climate change” special tonight? NOT!
LoL…for those who don’t know, Bastardi hates all of the global warming talk. He thinks it’s cyclical and that saying the cause is man made is pure idiocy. He’s always ranting about it on his Facebook page.
I think Gary is wrong. I believe we will have a trace to a lot more come Thursday. Gary come on man. Just say we need more data to determine any accumalations at this time. Saying 1 inch to a lot more is what I would expect from a Junior met.
Halleluah, at 6:15 Gary said the 1 inch to much more again, but this time he said he’s leaning towards the much more.
That’s crazy talk.
“http://www.freejohnnydare.com/fjd/2009/05/the-snownami-song/”
“http://www.freejohnnydare.com/fjd/2011/01/snownami-the-orchestral-version/”
To get us in the mood.
Which one has been more correct this winter, GFS or NAM?
The GFS does not look good for getting much more that 3 to 4 inches in Eastern Jackson county.
Climate is always changing, duh. The problem is a bunch of losers hop on whatever side of the fence makes them more money. We’ve been in a cooling trend for 16 years, but you’d never know it with the crack Algore has been smoking. Remember the cover of Time Magazine in the 70′s. It said, “how do we warm the planet”, because they were worried we were headed into an ice age. In only 25 years, they were ramming fake science down our throat, and leaving out data that didn’t support their propaganda to say How do we cool the planet. In 25 effin years. Warming “scientist” are an embarrassment to society. Bastardi will be on the show right after hell freezes over, which will be far sooner than a hot planet. NBC’s Brian Williams blamed hurricane Sandy on global “warming”, so you know it’s BS. The same idiots that said you can’t look at a small slice of data (like 25 years) are doing exactly that.
The euro model has been the best model. It looks like it is slowing this down a bit if i’m reading it correctly. Model readers please put your input in. Looks to be 4-6 hours slower I think.
LoL
Snowmagedon people!
The new data comes, the snow vest comes out,
We’ll get something, of that there’s no doubt.
“Possibly much more” will do in a pinch,
We’re three days away to top that one inch.
Will it be sleet, snow, or cold freezing rain?
Whichever the case, Thursday morning’s a pain!
So bloggers enjoy the impending white weather,
For it’s half of the fun watching it come in together!
Hey brother, how did you get that photo of yourself to show on there.
Heat Miser…I had to go to wordpress.com (or org) and create a profile. You can add an avatar picture from there. It was kind of a pain but it made blogging here more fun.
What is a good link to the Euro Model?
Weather – Do you have a link for the euro model. The only site I usually check is wxcaster.
Jacob on your facebook page the picture that has you sitting at the anchor desk you look like your dreaming of the day you take Gary’s job away from him.
If only lol
Well what a good job that would be! Think of how many vacations you would get a year!
Much more is also subject to debate, technically 3 or 4″ could be considered as much more than 1″. The next couple of days are going to be a blast, I just hope nobody has a coronary over “The Storm”!
I guarantee six inches or more! You can put that in your pipe and smoke it!
What has TWC called this storm? So silly!
“Q”! WTF kind of name is that?
You can go to Unisys weather as they have all the models. “http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/ecmwf.htm” is another site I use.
4-8” I think for the metro.. with 2-5” on the southern counties
Perhaps the worst forecast. Really. 1-12 inches. Why not give no accumulation total if that how wide it was or if it was that much of a freaking tough call. I mean, that’s almost as bad as saying all rain from this storm. I’m glad the other bloggers are ripping you apart. That forecast was pretty freaking pathetic. Hell, even Walrus man Mike Thompson (who doesn’t believe in the white stuff) gave a better forecast. Wow. No wonder you guys are tanking in the ratings as badly as you are. Maybe once Bracco sees your weather ratings plummet over the next few days, he will make the call to talk to you about how to properly handle winter storm forecasting 101. If Brett Anthony can see this, please like take Lezak out to Hays Kansas and leave him there and call the forecast yourself. Hell, even Frankie Mcdonald and Keith Denny would have done better. And you can ban me from the blog if you need to. But the truth doesn’t lie.
LoL…Walrus Man!
Kumke,
Its easy to take cheap shots from behind that computer screen isn’t it????
Kumke,
BTW,
When you came on here and mentioned that there was a new CEO and that there would be changes coming down the road, REALLY!! After some changes, you came on and said I told you so. Well, FYI, anytime a major corporation changes CEO’s there are going to be job losses, that’s why they changed the CEO. Common for any corporation. You didn’t know anymore then the next guy.
I don’t think Bracco is the CEO of Scripps.
He gave an opinion of the forecast Gary gave. The usual suspects come out and defend. Any objective person would agree that the forecast for Thursday was… well… pathetic.
That’s why you mow lawns and shovel snow for a living, isn’t it Mikey? You attack everyone because you are a Lezak minion and are protected from being banned.
Theo,
I have plenty on staff that do that for me…. looks to be 40 on staff this year to be exact
I don’t attack everyone, I discuss my opnion against others opnions.(it seems to be just with you, there’s no evidence with anyone else) When the facts prove you wrong, don’t take it out on me with comments like above. Lighten up Theo.
If Kumke has a problem with Lezak so be it, but don’t you think its kind of cowardly to comment on here about it. I had no problem with his opinion on what forecast was put out, it was his delivery of his opinion.
LoL…and I don’t even know what that means!
Absolutely uncalled for. Gary and this team are excellent at forecasting. Coming on to the blog and bashing him, the team and the leader of this news organization is way over the line. If you dont like his forecast, then dont watch the station. There is no need to act in this matter. You should do the right thing and exit yourself from this blog.
-Jacob Honeycutt
Agree!
I don’t think he bashed Bracco. Settle down guys it’s ok. He had an opinion. Just because you didn’t like it doesn’t mean you should throw a fit. I have a idea tell him why you disagree with his statement based on what he said.
We, as consumer’s of this weather product, have the right to praise great forecasting – which Gary does frequently – and to call him on any B.S. This snowfall forecast was flat out B.S. Sorry if you are too sensitive for that, but deal with it.
You seem to know a lot about the inner workings of KSHB. If you don’t like the forecasting or methodology of Gary’s forecasting, why are you trolling the site?
Seems like you would want to get your forecast elsewhere. Either way, Gary by far is the most accurate source in KC, hands down.
Nice job “Zak”
From what I just saw live on TWC, they have KC in the 3-6 range
Check it again dude. They have KC in the 6-12 inch range.
Lol they showed the same map again, Just saying what I am seeing.
North of kc 10-12, metro kc 6-10, south of kc 5-8, I believe this will be Gary map at 10 news
Thank you for being patient with my forecast. When a storm is three days away, things change. They always do. This is a very unusual storm. I will be working on my first prediction tonight at 10 PM. It isn’t unusual to wait until two days before the storm to officially go for amounts. We are still more than two days away.
Gary
Can you give us faithful bloggers a clue as to what you are thinking right now…in terms of amounts. I’m curious about Lawrence as that’s were I am located.
Gary, so are my prediction right? Lol
Okay – you’re saying 8 – 12″ for my area. With the winds as anticipated, how do I measure the snowfall with all that drifting?? Asq+Bsq= Csq?
I believe snownami was made in 2011 during February or march was it not?
Snowmagedon
test
Chiefsfan,
Cuts those totals in half, expect that, then you’ll really enjoy the storm and how much we end up with.
You don’t think we’ll have as much as I’m thinking
The storm (excuse me, STORM!!!) name “Q” is a short form for “Quit trying to predict what Mother Nature’s gonna throw at you. Especially if you’re talking about one inch.”
If there’s just a 12 hour window for precip., I see us getting no more than six inches. This isn’t Boston and we don’t have an Atlantic Ocean to draw moisture from. Any storm that comes here has to bring its own moisture thanks to the drought.
Actually, while that is sometimes true, this one is supposed to be drawing tons of moisture from the the Gulf of Mexico into the system.
What do you think dpollard? Time to fire up the equipment?
Mower. I would do it to his face
Ha!
HO
Don’t call the mighty Mower out! He will threaten your life like he has mine.
Not true, if so, prove it.
Wow, “the storm” has some folks pretty edgy on here. This storm doesn’t need a name because it is “THE STORM”! 10-14, but why do I have the gut feeling it will be our typical 1-3 and if it is I will laugh my A$$ off!
It’s because they didn’t get to the store in time. By the time they got there they were out of milk and bread. Man life sucks.
Checking the shelves in the North Belt (St Joseph) WalMart tonight, it appears that bananas are the emergency food of choice for a lot of folks. They had NO bananas. I waited for the song-and-dance show to start (“Yes, we have no bananas…”) but it never did.
Since you still have time, you might find it interesting to cruise the grocery store aisles and make a note of what items are disappearing…
Ifigured Leavenworth would be in the wsw
We will all be in the wsw by morning
They will be. LV falls under the Pleasant Hill office and they haven’t issued anything yet.
There it is in a nutshell, well done Jerry.
wsw?
What’s this I hear about a possible storm coming?
Other stations already appear to be on the ball of calling at least 3-6″ for most of the metro – maybe more.
A bit more bold than “1 inch or maybe more”
1 inch or mabye “a lot” more he said…talk about a safe bet.
Maybe y’all could get up a “other station watch” and see how long it takes them to copy Gary’s forecast details after he releases it?
ah…wsw. I get it, never mind.
LoL…sorry, I can’t let it go. I think Gary is great, but that has to be the lamest snowfall total forecast I have ever heard. LoL I’ve never seen such a cya forecast in my life.
Agreed. Like I said earlier it would have been better to say to early for totals as we need a bit more data. Watch at 10 when I have “new data” for my first thoughts on possible amounts.
That would have been WAY better! Oh well, at least at ten he is saying he will touch on specific totals. Here is the NWS latest snowfall projection map:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/?n=winterbrief.htm
Click on my name to the link to my storm chasing Facebook page for a look at my forecast thoughts. Also track my storm chases around the US this spring/summer. Feel free to join in on the conversations. You can either click my name on here or go to “facebook.com/jacobhoneycuttwx”
Thanks,
Jacob Honeycutt
Storm Chaser
Bluefish? Sounds like you know me! The equipment is always ready! In fact I take the snow blowers out and run them about once every month or so to keep them ready! The models taken at face value minus 50 percent of projected output due to limiting factors would give Blue Springs about 3″ total from sleet plus snow! No school on Thursday and if it overachieved then maybe Friday!
Long time reader first time poster. From what we can tell at this point prior to the storm actually breaking land is…..no one knows. Forecasters seem split between a mainly sleet event which would bring minimal measurable ice/snow to half snow and half sleet bringing 3-5 inches. Only time will tell. So keep the guesses coming.
Blueflash not bluefish… Sorry
Yes I am the other weather fanatic at ESBC.
I know we’re not suppose to mention other stations, but one station has put out there
Accumulation predictions, north of kc 6+, metro kc 3-6 depending on sleet
I’m thinking of starting a Joe Bastardi fan club, we could call ourselves Bastardites. Who’s in?
Count me in dude! All hail the Great Bastardi!
Nope. Can’t. My mom is still alive and she’d whomp me if I did that…
STJOE 12-15 BIG SNOW LATE THURSDAY WILL BE NEAT. . .
WATCHES WILL COME OUT AROUND 930 TONITE OR 330 AM TUESDAY
How about the Inglorious Bastardi’s
Does the new data come out at around 8?
Kole, that’s freaking gold!
Gsry, is this going to be the usual, unusual storm or the unusual, unusual storm? Usually, the usual storm is somewhat predictable especially as the snow is falling or not falling although it should be. I assume that the unusual, unusual storm will mean that we will know for sure what is going to happen as it is happening, or not happening. Right? Wait…..what?
LoL!
I still think the chief meteorologists should challenge each other, use KCI’s snow total as the gauge as to who is most accurate on this really challenging forecast and the losers have to team up and clear the winners driveway! It might get some regional or national attention? Sounds like fun to me!
DONATE MONEY TO A CHARITY
when do you think they will issue a winter storm watch for Kansas City metro?
Either after 9pm or early morning.
Gary, what do you think about the challenge idea?
Winter watches will be posted by 10 pm
This weather system is unusual and extremely complex. We will let you know our snowfall projections BEFORE the storm is over, mabye even after it is finished. But bear with us, because this is a very very unusual system. I’ll let you know right now though, that we will get frozen precipitation and it will be somewhere between a little and alot, that I can guarantee. As far as predicting the temperature, as usual I give you the 3 degree warranty. That means if we come within 3 degrees above or below a given temp then we hit the mark…wait, er, um, uuuhhhh…that’s a 6 degree span you say, not 3?…I give your our 6 degree warranty.
Lol
Early indications on the 00Z NAM continue to suggest this storm may take its sweet time in getting here. Very preliminary at this point though. (24 hours)
WWBD = What would Bastardi do?
He would flex his muscles in a competition pose and scream out his snowfall amount predictions like a man!!!!
This storm has to be a nightmare for weathermen to predict
Nope. I can do it easy… Here’s my forecast:
“Might snow, might not.”
See how easy that is?
I’ve been around long enough to know every big storm that comes through earns the label of “This is a very unusual storm.” The fact that it’s unusual makes it pretty normal. And if a “normal” storm ever came, that would have to be labeled unusual since they never seem to happen.
So can we stop using the term “unusual” for our storms? It doesn’t seem to mean anything. Just say that the storm is out a ways and you need some more information before making a prediction with any confidence. Just my $.02
Accuweather now predicting 8-12 inches for Topeka. Larger snowfall amounts moving a little further south every time a new projection map comes out.
DAN HENRY OR FRED BROSKI, NEED TO BE OLD TO REMEMBER THESE GUYS PRE METS JUST SPUN NOAA FORECASTS WITH UNIQUE STYLE. . . .
OMG…Dan Henry. Haven’t head that name in a long freakin’ time. Is he still alive?
DUNNO thompsen took over for him at 4 what 28 years ago?
According to the Lawrence Journal World, Shawn Byrne, NWS meteorologist, said the Lawrence area will likely see an “all-snow scenario,” 6-8 inches expected.
Larger storms are unusual because we don’t get them often.
EVERYBODY WATCH THIS VIDEO. Listen to what he says about KC.
“http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/blizzard-severe-weather-midwee/2174014477001″
“The snow will avoid Kansas City like the plague.” Sure fits in with what we’ve seen so far this year.
GREAT SHARE thats funny hes seen this a 1000 times we shall see
Do I have to watch it?
Sadly I think he’s right. Oh well.
Why is this storm being projected to go from the SW and move to Iowa, not really the usual track for storms
Kiss this storm goodbye. Sleet minor snow
LoL…wtf are you talking about? Are you on drugs. Major Winter Storm coming in…catch up dude.
We haven’t had an 8 inch pounding for some time .
That’s what she said.
^^Ok that was a good one lol
That’s what you said she said.
Nice job Jacob, post some accuweather crap and feed the trolls
Just had to throw it out there. If you type in KC in the forecast bar it says 4-8″. But in the video its the complete opposite. If this was a normal storm, I would completely agree with it. But this storm is much different.
New Blog up
Light snow changing to sleet then to heavy snow. That’s what new NAM shows. Going to be about 6-9 inches of snow.
That Accuweather guy is the only one saying no snow for KC…I watched many others. My guess is this guess = huge idiot. LOL