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Enjoy today…the heat is coming back

9:30p Update
The radar is quiet, the clouds are breaking apart and we are headed for a pretty comfortable evening. Thanks to that late-day sunshine, our highs DID top the 80 degree mark for a short period of time.
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Given the ground moisture, light winds and clearing sky, I would not be surprised if there were isolated areas of patchy fog early Tuesday morning. But as soon as the sun starts to rise, that should mix out.

I’m looking over all the new forecast stuff right now and I still have to say: I’m not terribly impressed with meaningful rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday. An “MCS” will likely form in Kansas Tuesday night, but given the wind setup just above the surface, it appears to take a dive into SE Kansas by early Wednesday morning.
There is still the potential for scattered sprinkles and showers in the afternoon on Wednesday, but right now nothing looks promising. The latest Powercast model indicates sprinkles are possible Wednesday, but not “for sure”.
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Let’s focus on tonight for now and enjoy the fact we can sleep with the windows open and be comfortable. Have a great night and I’ll see you at 10p on 41 Action News.

4:30p Update
Small line of storms has formed in far NE Kansas and NW Missouri. This is slowly moving to the South/Southeast right now. I am not seeing a big threat of severe weather here. However, the NWS reports some people have spotted cold air funnels, like the one below.
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While these may look ominous, they pose little threat since they are very weak and rarely make contact with the ground.

I believe this activity was spawned due to the break in the clouds we had in that area. You can see it in the previous satellite picture farther down the page.
Will it hold together and impact KC? It will be close. But my gut tells me it will begin to fall apart as it gets here. There could be *one* part of the line that sustains and pushes into the city. Overall, this activity is moving at a good clip, so if/when a shower gets into the city, I do not expect it to last long.
The latest still to go on 41 Action News.

3p Post

As expected, the clouds have hung around the area and helped to keep a lid on the temperatures. The visible satellite from outer space shows the coverage of these clouds.
SatMon
There are a few breaks here and there up near the Hiawatha area and around St. Joseph. But for many areas the cloud should hold tough through the evening.

1 PM
Temperatures are responding to the decreased cloud cover in those select areas. Notice how Manhattan and St. Joseph are at 80°, whereas places like KCI and Olathe are in the mid 70s. The forecast high from last night of 79 appears to be on target for KCI. As mentioned last night, however, all it will take is for those clouds to break a little sooner and we could zoom up another degree or two.

Rainfall from last night was decent in many (but not all) areas. The official reports from the NWS look like this:
3 PM
Of course, your mileage may vary a bit. I saw radar estimates last last night of 2-3″ in some spots close to the Metro area.

Speaking of numbers, I did some number crunching today. Man, we are really putting a good dent in the drought this month. Again, these numbers come from official reporting locations and can vary once you go 10 miles outside of the given city. But, this shows us how wet this June has been.
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Each of the major reporting sites in our coverage area is above average on rainfall for the month so far. Not bad.

With all this rain, some yards may need mowing. Thanks to the cooler temps today, this might be a good time to get it done! You may still have to dodge a stray shower South of the Metro tonight, but I don’t see it being too widespread at all. Or, you could always try to get it done tomorrow morning. Depending on when you have to be at work, of course.
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Hey, maybe you’re thinking that pesky lawn mowing stuff can wait because the Royals are playing tonight. I wouldn’t blame you! If you plan to make the drive to Kauffman Stadium, here’s what to expect.
ROYALS
There is still a slim chance a shower floats by, but it does not appear to be anything significant.

The heat will return for Tuesday and based on the early info I’ve gathered from the forecast charts, it looks like Summer is eager to set in across the area. Wonder how much longer until we see 100° in the area…it might not be too long at all. I’m working on the forecast information and graphic making right now. I’ll have the latest starting at 4p this afternoon on 41 Action News.

Your air conditioner thanks you for the break today.
-JD

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23 comments to Enjoy today…the heat is coming back

  • yewtrees

    A heatwave is showing up for next week in KC.

    Highest Global Temps on Record for Month of May:
    “http://www.livescience.com/46469-may-temperatures-hottest-since-1880.html”

  • Hume-Dude

    Say is isn’t so! I hate 100F weather. It won’t take long at all with temps like that to bake out all moisture in the ground and start this drought all over again. IF Gary’s summer forecast is right, it won’t last all that long and a good cold front will come in a break the heat and give us some nice storms

  • Hume-Dude

    You mean wettest three weeks we have had in a long time, I agree. How easy do you think it might be to revert right back to the DRY, DRY ,DRY pattern we just got out of from last Oct- May? I will answer for you, it will be very easy to go right back so that’s all I was saying. Plus, we can go several years around here without hitting 100F ONCE, so its not like we do that all the time. Its back and forth in this region, it can hit 100F for ten summers in a row, and go without 100F ten summers in a row. My money would say this year we do not hit 100F ONCE, that’s my forecast. Several mid to upper 90′s, but no 100F at KCI.

    My corn is 7′ tall and tasseling like crazy right now BTW, not complaining. Beans are shooting up too, if we can just avoid really long stretches of 95F+ and get a little rain once in a while it will be best crop in last 5 years easily.

    • Drought Miser

      I would give you an A- almost an A, but the Severe weather hype did not pan out but overall Your spring cast was really close good work Mike!!!

    • chris

      Mike,

      Like i said before i give you an A..the severe weather outbreaks are hard to predict. Good job buddy

  • Drought Miser

    I always miss those cold air funnels hopefully one time I can be in the right spot to see one for once

  • Dobber

    Lol, do you dress up in woman’s clothes Ed? I mean when you post as a female.it wasn’t that dry this winter, we had a banner year plowing snow. What say you?

  • Dobber

    Last week our comments disappeared. But theos stays? What gives?

  • chris

    Hmm i must have missed what good ole theoman corzine said

  • Drought Miser

    Nice and cool out this morning, it’s all about perspective 63 degrees for a high in January is a warm day 63 for a low is a nice cool morning in late June

    • chris

      Drought miser..it feels like a very perfect morning temp wise lol…but yes u said it exactly right

  • j-ox

    Will guesstimate that I’ve had close to 10″ of rain (perhaps more) in my locale…just over the last 3 weeks.

    • chris

      I would say you are about spot on j-ox..kinda nice to see

      • Hume-Dude

        I’m working with about 6″ down here. I could use some more, the past few events have missed me for most past. Sunday nights activity sputtered on the door step and we only got about .2″ I am hoping we get a solid 1″+ from Wed-Thurs but not holding my breath as it doesn’t look overly impressive

        • mowermike

          Hume,

          Somehow my spring forecast that I posted yesterday got deleted. What did you think of this forecast? Pretty good huh?

          mowermike
          April 1, 2014 at 1:35 PM
          Mowermike’s forecast for the Spring Of 2014:
          This is for the 5-county region surrounding Downtown KC.

          1)We average around 13 inches of rain between March 20th and June 20th. I’m forecasting well above average in the range of 15-18 inches. Flooding will be a concern and likely.
          2)Below average temps for April and June. Above average in May. Overall, below average temps for the spring period.
          3)Severe weather: Oh boy, at least 3 outbreaks here in KC and maybe as many as 5. An outbreak would be considered 15 different reports of severe weather in our local area.
          4)No drought problems at all.
          5)Our last frost/freeze will likely happen again in the last week of April and the first week of May. Average is April 8th.

          6)Overall, I’m expecting some serious moisture this spring and with all the rain around, we will likely be cooler than average. This the year we fill those ponds back up and restore our water tables in the sub soils.

          Let’s review each prediction:

          1) Boom! Proof(“http://stormwatch.com/Rainfall_Data/Rainfall_Totals.aspx”) Don’t highlight the (“)…..many areas around the 5-county area had 13-16.5 inches of rain. Clearly above average. Now, yes, there were some that fell short, but the majority of the region according to these totals were above average.

          2)Boom! Forecast period was for the spring…so, we were below average in April, above in May, and below up until June 20th, the last day of spring.

          3)No Boom! I missed this puppy.

          4) Boom! We’re currently under no drought headlines and as you mentioned, the corn is 7′ tall…certainly not a drought.

          5) Boom! Our last frost was indeed the first half of May.

          6) Super Boom! We had plenty of moisture to fill the ponds in most areas, we had enough rain around to produce cooler than average temps and we have no drought issues as of this post nor did we all of spring. (DO) is not a drought.

          So, for the realistic bloggers on here, how would you grade this forecast. The main focus people look for in a long range forecast is how much moisture and what will the temps be. I nailed both of those for our 5-county region.

          It is what it is…..

          • Hume-Dude

            Mike- all in all pretty good forecast. The last four weeks of spring really helped out, if not for the rains in June we would all be in trouble going into Summer and your forecast would have been shot. Glad we missed the brunt of severe storms this year, that has been trend last several years locally but you know our number will be called eventually. Orrick did get hit pretty hard, and a F-2 missed my town by about 4 miles so the destructive storms are still lurking around. I am hoping we can avoid major heat waves and keep a little rain from time to time so we can keep these lush crops going. Unfortunately corn prices are tanking but maybe soy beans will make up for it for those farmers with a diverse portfolio

          • Dobber

            Mike, several comments got deleted yesterday. I like the BOOMS! and SUPER BOOMS.

  • Drought Miser

    Glad we got those thunderstorms to the north of town yesterday it cooled the air out at the “K” really good guess it cooled the Royals bats also, ah Mattingly had his ace in there Clayton Kershaw, and he pitched a beauty

  • Hume-Dude

    I saw Gary had 60% chance in for morning storms last night at 6pm, what happened? Poof! I think that complex in western/central KS robbed the energy for our MCS that never developed. I did not cut hay on Monday looking at how we had 40% in for WED- FRI at one point. I should have cut regardless of forecast, then it would have actually rained.

  • Hockeynut69

    GFS is showing 3-4″ near Manhattan and KC around 1.5″ in the next 72hrs. Just not seeing what they are at this point. At least not as wide spread as their maps show.