Good morning bloggers,
Another very strong storm will likely be blasting the eastern seaboard within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is another very functional storm system and we will compare it to the storm that will be affecting us this weekend. For us to have an exciting storm system to deal with we will need to to be more organized, stronger, and a bit slower than what showed up on the models overnight. Let’s take a look and I will explain below.
We begin, today, with this first map on the left. This is the 500 mb forecast valid at 1 PM eastern time Wednesday. Another major storm will be intensifying and affecting the Jersey Shore, New York, into New England. This is another strong storm that is related to Superstorm Sandy that hit one week ago. It is a definitely weaker as there isn’t a hurricane being absorbed into the flow, but it still has enough strength and will have some impact on the region.
This second map shows the surface forecast valid at the same time, 1 PM eastern on Wednesday. A strong 992 mb surface low is forecast to be intensifying off the New Jersey coast. You can see the tight pressure gradient which indicates very strong surface winds will be increasing to nearly 50 mph or possibly stronger right near or just off the east coast. The closer the isobars are together the higher the wind speeds. This will be another strong storm to hit the same areas that were affected big time by last weeks Superstorm.
Now, let’s take a look at the storm and energy forecast to affect our area at the end of the week. This next map, below shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Sunday. Compare this solution to the one that came out overnight:
Again, the above 500 mb forecast is from the 12z (6 AM) model run, and the map below shows the 500 mb forecast valid at the same time. There are some subtle but very important differences in these two solutions for the storm that will be affecting our area this weekend.
On the top map, there is more of a separation of the northern and southern parts of this upper level trough. There is a northern plains/southern Canada upper low, which is in Canada on the 12z run from yesterday morning and it is farther south over North Dakota on the 06z (midnight) model run below. Yesterday I discussed how we would want a slower and stronger solution, NOT a faster and weaker solution. The European model, overnight, also did this lower map faster and weaker solution which does not make me very happy today. We really need this to slow down a bit as our area could use a nice soaking of rain.
Now, this somewhat seemingly subtle difference in how this storm develops in the upper levels of the atmosphere will have potentially huge differences in how we experience this storm at the surface. The map on the left shows a rainfall forecast from yesterday mornings 12z model run. Kansas City was forecast to be in the heavy rain bands with over 3 inches of rain just to our east, but the overnight model run was very different.
This data that came out while we were sleeping, early on this election day, produced a lot less rain in our area. Now, the somewhat good news is that we were still in the axis of heavy rain, but not nearly as much. And, this is a direct result of the weaker and faster solution. If the storm comes out any faster and weaker than this latest solution we could be left without an exciting storm system again. We want it to be stronger and slower. The weaker and faster solution also takes out any chance of us seeing snowflakes with this storm.
Let’s look at this morning’s NAM model that just came out before 9 AM:
Again, this eastern storm is very functional, almost too much as it is again going to create some significant if not major problems over the same areas that were devastated a week ago. The yellow shade is indicating 45 to 60 mph winds with higher gusts and those stronger winds are just offshore. This storm gets it’s act together tomorrow, while our storm may struggle?
So, let’s see how the models trend this morning on our storm. We will be analyzing for these details and we will describe this on 41 Action News when the news department provides us with any time on this election day.
I got up early and went to vote as the polls opened up in Overland Park. Try to get out there and vote today and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.