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Election Day Weather Thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

Another very strong storm will likely be blasting the eastern seaboard within the next 24 to 36 hours.  This is another very functional storm system and we will compare it to the storm that will be affecting us this weekend.  For us to have an exciting storm system to deal with we will need to to be more organized, stronger, and a bit slower than what showed up on the models overnight.  Let’s take a look and I will explain below.

We begin, today, with this first map on the left. This is the 500 mb forecast valid at 1 PM eastern time Wednesday.  Another major storm will be intensifying and affecting the Jersey Shore, New York, into New England.  This is another strong storm that is related to Superstorm Sandy that hit one week ago.  It is a definitely weaker as there isn’t a hurricane being absorbed into the flow, but it still has enough strength and will have some impact on the region.

This second map shows the surface forecast valid at the same time, 1 PM eastern on Wednesday.  A strong 992 mb surface low is forecast to be intensifying off the New Jersey coast.  You can see the tight pressure gradient which indicates very strong surface winds will be increasing to nearly 50 mph or possibly stronger right near or just off the east coast. The closer the isobars are together the higher the wind speeds.  This will be another strong storm to hit the same areas that were affected big time by last weeks Superstorm.

Now, let’s take a look at the storm and energy forecast to affect our area at the end of the week.  This next map, below shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Sunday.  Compare this solution to the one that came out overnight:

Again, the above 500 mb forecast is from the 12z (6 AM) model run, and the map below shows the 500 mb forecast valid at the same time.  There are some subtle but very important differences in these two solutions for the storm that will be affecting our area this weekend.

On the top map, there is more of a separation of the northern and southern parts of this upper level trough.  There is a northern plains/southern Canada upper low, which is in Canada on the 12z run from yesterday morning and it is farther south over North Dakota on the 06z (midnight) model run below.  Yesterday I discussed how we would want a slower and stronger solution, NOT a faster and weaker solution.  The European model, overnight, also did this lower map faster and weaker solution which does not make me very happy today.  We really need this to slow down a bit as our area could use a nice soaking of rain.

Now, this somewhat seemingly subtle difference in how this storm develops in the upper levels of the atmosphere will have potentially huge differences in how we experience this storm at the surface.  The map on the left shows a rainfall forecast from yesterday mornings 12z model run.  Kansas City was forecast to be in the heavy rain bands with over 3 inches of rain just to our east, but the overnight model run was very different.

This data that came out while we were sleeping, early on this election day, produced a lot less rain in our area. Now, the somewhat good news is that we were still in the axis of heavy rain, but not nearly as much. And, this is a direct result of the weaker and faster solution. If the storm comes out any faster and weaker than this latest solution we could be left without an exciting storm system again.  We want it to be stronger and slower.  The weaker and faster solution also takes out any chance of us seeing snowflakes with this storm.

Let’s look at this morning’s NAM model that just came out before 9 AM:

Again, this eastern storm is very functional, almost too much as it is again going to create some significant if not major problems over the same areas that were devastated a week ago.  The yellow shade is indicating 45 to 60 mph winds with higher gusts and those stronger winds are just offshore.  This storm gets it’s act together tomorrow, while our storm may struggle?

So, let’s see how the models trend this morning on our storm.   We will be analyzing for these details and we will describe this on 41 Action News when the news department provides us with any time on this election day.

I got up early and went to vote as the polls opened up in Overland Park.  Try to get out there and vote today and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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18 comments to Election Day Weather Thoughts

  • Bananny

    This storm may not produce the precip we want but perhaps next time through it will. I am at least hopeful that there are storms coming through that will provide us with chances of snow this winter.

  • mowermike

    The Canadian model overnight had accumulating snow here late in the weekend…..however it’s cousin GFS and distant cousin EURO, beg to differ….no snow and a much faster solution.(little rain too)

    So, today, we’ll see how the models are feeling.

    When’s the most accurate winter forecast? Nov. 19th??

    • Miky, I gave the most accurate winter forecast last week…Everyone on this blog knows this except you…signed, President Kevin…Vote for “KFC”, The most non-biased forecast in our GREAT country…U.S.A. …U.S.A. …

      • mowermike

        “Over the last 3 weeks, I,ve noticed a gradual warming of the SST, which would indicate a strengthening El Nino…Unfortunately, the El Nino/La Nina usually has “NO” implications on the K.C. metro area Wx., but,I heard the other day, in regards to Sandys left turn into the NE. U.S., was caused by High pressure in the NW Atlantic that has been getting stronger over the last couple of years…I believe this “High” will continue to create “deeper” troughing in the easter CONUS this season, and leave the central/High plains region in a Quasi/NW zonal flow through “most” of this season…A few disturbances Will effect our area,but with “limited” moisture, and little in the way of precipitation,w/ limited amounts of snow fall…Temps.should be “Above” normal…”

        So, from now until the first day of Spring, your forecast is for above average temps, below average snowfall and below average precip. overall. good luck!!

        • That was not to difficult,was it ??? Have a good 1. :)

        • Mike,

          Sandy’s left turn was a result of a blocking high that formed due north of Sandy. Last year we didn’t have blocking in that location. It will likely return at times through the winter which is directly related to a negative AO (Arctic Oscillation).

          By the way, the new GFS model barely has one little band of showers moving by with our storm and no chance of a snowflake. We will wait and see how this trends in the coming days. We need rain.

          The winter forecast comes out on the 19th.

          • Gary, I read that Texas Longhorns football coach,Mack Brown,is complaining of the ‘Horns Down’ gestures that non-texas fans are displaying…What are your thoughts on this ??? Please be candid…

        • My deepest opologies miky, but you don’t seem to know that winter begins Dec.21…KFC will use the general meteorological day of Dec. 1st to keep it simple for you… ;)

          • mowermike

            Winter starts on Dec. 21st….wow, didn’t know. Thanks so much.

            • You posted at 10:05; “From NOW until the first day of spring”,is NOT a winter forecast…I was just informing you the date(s) of Winter… It seems you don’t have your days correct… I hope you don’t apply your own math,in your lawn mowing business ??? That could be a disaster … :)

  • Remember to “Vote early,and often,today !!!

  • sedsinkc

    The latest trend on the weekend storm is not encouraging for our local area. The pattern better change soon or it’s going to likely be another drought year in 2013. Meanwhile, the East gets blasted again. Could be shaping up to be a stormy winter along the East Coast. Meanwhile, we will have to hope that clipper systems will bring us some minor accumulations of snow over the winter.

  • mukustink

    What the storm has gone away? Wow didn’t see that coming, not. DROUGHT DROUGHT DROUGHT. I would think people would be smarter then depending on a model 5-7 days out that calls for rain for our area.

    • mowermike

      The rain that came through yesterday was predicted on the models 8 days ago, not much, but was predicted as a clipper system from the long range models. The model agreement was for most of the heavier precip. to be north and east of the city. that’s what happened. Plus, Sat-Sun. storm is a ways off, nothing’s happened yet, so can’t judge the forecasting of the models quite yet.

      The 70′s in the forecast later this week was also forecast as early as Nov. 1st last week from the long range models. Indicated a huge warm-up prior to a possible storm system. Looks to all happen later this week into the weekend. Now, the strength and exact location will be better sampled as the week moves on…

      • mukustink

        blah blah blah. You are like a broken record with these models. The funny thing is you never respond when they are wrong. Why is that? You seem to vanish when you are wrong. Oh well, it’s fun anyway. isn’t it?

  • mowermike

    Much as you in regards to saying they are always wrong, when in reality they’re quite accurate given they predict the future. Case and point, the storm that’s about to hit the east coast again, this has been predicted well over a week now…

    I never said the models were never wrong, clearly they have been wrong and will be wrong again. I don’t vanish when things go wrong, it’s just hard to carry on a civil conversation with you minus negative thoughts

  • RickMckc

    0Z GFS shows almost .90 of rain Sunday … might be a bit early to say that the models were wrong. Just sayin.