Good afternoon bloggers,
An El Nino Watch has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center! I will go over some of my thoughts on this in tomorrow’s blog.
From: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near or greater than +0.5°C (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained elevated during the month (Fig. 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.
Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Niño beginning in July- September 2012 (Fig. 6). As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 (see HYPERLINK “http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.html” CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site ( HYPERLINK “http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml”El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the HYPERLINK “http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/forecast.shtml”Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 September 2012. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: HYPERLINK “mailto:ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov”ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
Oh my goodness, i wonder what this has effect on for the upcoming winter season of 2012-2013. I am hopeing for a surprisingly october this year could we possibly get a october surprise maybe.
Brad
None
Someone brought El Nino up I think last week on the blog. I can not remember exactly, but I think it was shot down as something not notable. I just wish we had an idea of what is going on with the weather as it seems to change a lot week to week. Farmers Almanac may have some good insight. Anyone have a copy to see what the upcoming fall and winter look like?
The Farmers Almanac said that we could see our first snow by late October.
I brought that up, Farmer’s Almanac had this blog:
http://www.almanac.com/blog/weather-blog/august-el-ni%C3%B1o
Someone remind me, doesn’t the possibility of/an actual El Nino mean generally colder and wetter/snowier winters for us here in the Midwest, while it’s warmer and drier in other parts of the nation and continent?
Or am I thinking of La Nina…
El Nino tend to favor wetter than average winters from Southern California through the Desert Southwest and southern states. Statistics show a strong bias toward milder than average winters in the Upper Midwest during El Nino years.
“http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57449883/el-nino-threatens-to-return-cost-u.s-$25-billion-15-years-ago/”
Gary, I thought you didn’t put much stock in ENSO variations’ effects on KC seasonal weather or the development of each LRC.
El Nino influences the weather pattern. It will still influence the pattern that sets up, and how that evolves will help decide how our weather will be impacted. For example, the past two winters were La Nina influenced winters. One of the winters had 36 inches of snow and the second one had under 4 inches of snow. Two completely different weather patterns, but both of them La Nina’s.
Gary
Gary. I disagreed! It still depends upon like ocean temps, NAO, AO, snow cover in Canada etc. We had a very positive NAO throughtout this past winter despite La Nina’s effects.
El Nino,and La Nina have, little to, no effect for the mid west
Yes, I was wondering this because i found some old Accuweather article and it said that both La Nina and El Nino cause milder, drier winters for most of the Midwest and practically all of Kansas and Missouri.
I’m assuming this is something fairly major as it commanded a new blog entry…?
As long as we can get through this drought, fill the lakes back up, and actually give the farmers/ranchers some hope, I don’t care whether it’s an El Nino year or not! All I hope for is a wetter summer next year so I’m not having to water my garden every day (sometimes twice!) to keep things from wilting….
Gary, realistically how long could this drought last.In some parts of the viewing area such as here in Drexel, I saw something that said we need upwards of 15 inches of rain to break this drought. I would think this drought would easily carry over at least into the spring months if not longer. And think if the rain deficit was even cut in half by next spring and summer and we have a summer much like this one…… this will be very hard to shake in my opinion
Exceptional drought. In the metro. By August. Shocker. Glad I didn’t predict THAT.
Where’s all the rain and green grass Mike?
The has never been D4 in the area since the drought index you are refrencing was created 1990. Saying you knew this would happen is about as reliable as me saying that this coming winter will be the least snowiest on record (nobody has any basis for predicting extreme events like this).