Good morning bloggers,

Thank you for participating in making your blogger winter forecasts. I will write something up for our website next week, and we will are currently working on the winter forecast that will come out on November 19th.

We continue to live in a frustrating place to enjoy exciting weather.  The Drought In The Heartland has reached day 163….

Any of these four upper level forecast maps can be clicked on for a larger view.  This first map shows this mornings 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. We look at this level of the atmosphere to track these storm systems as it is half way through the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight or ZERO milibars.  The surface has a pressure of near 1,000 mb. So, 500 mb is right down the middle.

This first map, on the left shows the very functional and strong storm system still affecting the northeastern states this morning. And, there is a new storm developing near the Washington coast near Seattle this morning.  This is also a rather functional and organized storm system. On this second map, right, the northeaster storm is lifting due north heading towards Greenland.  And, the storm that is about to affect us is beginning to reorganize inland over the western states.

By later this weekend, on Sunday, the western storm just has not been modeled to get its act together.  As you can see on this third map, left, the trough, that was a more functional and organized storm system is forecast to just stretch out and have a positive tilt as it slams into some invisible force field not allowing it to strengthen.  The vorticity, the orange and yellow colors, is forecast to stretch out significantly from northeast to southwest and this will likely end up producing a rather short window of opportunity for rain.

By Tuesday afternoon the storm that is going to affect us will become smaller scale and negatively tilted north of the Great Lakes as it lifts northeast.  We are left with zonal flow aloft, west to east, with a storm dropping towards the west coast. This next storm upstream doesn’t have near the energy that the first one has, but it is forecast to become negatively tilted and more energetic as it approaches us by next weekend.

Okay, back to this next chance of rain. As the energy spreads out in the positively tilted trough a band of significant rain and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop Sunday to our east. We will have a smaller window of opportunity for this band of precipitation as it moves by earlier in the day on Sunday.  As discussed many times already this week, we need this storm to slow down, become more organized, and then we would have a more exciting storm to talk about in our area. This still has time to change a bit, but there has been no indication at all that it will.  Here is the surface forecast valid at 6 PM Sunday. It will be a cold and windy Sunday afternoon with whatever rain we had ending and shifting to the east.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this next storm on 41 Action News today and tonight.


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  • Theo

    Historically, not a good time of year to get precipitation. All we can do is hope for rain and that we don’t fall off the fiscal cliff.

  • mukustink

    DROUGHT We get screwed again and again!

  • trinlivco

    Gary, I know its not your fault but to say your forcast of the up coming so called storm is frustrating is a under statement. I am sick and tried of beautiful weather and sunsets and so on. I just wish mother nature would bless us with some much needed moisture. The longer this drought continues the worse things are going to get for everyone in the midwest. Whether you call storms functional, organized our what ever I just wish it would rain!!!TR

    • TR,

      This is really hard to deal with, mainly because I always seem to have to explain how something is likely not going to come together. It is so much more fun to try to explain how it likely will come together. Maybe, just maybe something will change a bit. This is a bit ridiculous. We are going through a very long stretch of unexciting weather.

  • yewtrees

    “zonal flow aloft” sounds familiar?? Deja vu!!

  • frigate

    Whats new with the precip forming just to our East, I’ve lost count how many times that has been happening.Its all or nothing…I’m sure areas from Sedelia to St Louis will get 1-2 inches and we’ll get a few hundreths. ARG!!!

  • Hockeynut69

    But I thought a “new weather pattern is forming”? Guess that has been overblown as well. Maybe some slight shifts in flow, but overall weather pattern apears to be the same. Little to no rain. Systems are too thin to produce much for us, strengthens after it is past etc etc etc. Wake me up when a true new pattern forms. One that produces new weather not the same old drought stuff.

  • OlatheMatt

    This sucks, I mean seriously. Its like we are back in the summer pattern with just cooler air. The ground is dust dry.

  • f00dl3

    Me thinking the major weather story for 2013 will be wildfires in the midwest. This past year we started to see hints of it – I think next year is going to be much worse. It’s all part of a drought pattern that developed in late June of 2011.

  • Adam Penney

    Anybody want to take any guesses as to how we get screwed out of the storm being progged about a week from now?? lol

    Cant catch a break.

    • Going off the most EC run, I say,somewhere in the K.C. metro area gets screwed W/ a foot of snow…You have just now heard it here,from KFC…KFC,our motto is; “We,re one LEG up on the competitors,and we BACK up our forecasts”…Have a good 1. :)

      • -most recent EC run/12z-

      • mowermike


        I hope you’re right, but it’s awful hard to get a few inches of snow in KC during the month of Nov. let alone a foot!!


        The earlier NAM did have some decent rains, now it’s agreeing with other models on most of the heavy stuff will fall in central to eastern Mo. The models have been consistent all week in predicting the heavier stuff east of here. Hey, they need it too.

  • I forecasted next Fri.when the snow storm will effect the midwest…May have to push the timing ahead to Fri./Sat. time frame…

  • f00dl3

    ROFLMAO this is getting effing stupid. Latest NAM 18z output gives KC metro barely 1/10″….

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Here’s the latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Showing between 0.50″-1.00″ for most of KC, I dont see it happening though. For my winter forecast, I am predicting <12" of snow and mild temperatures. So dry and mild is my call. Hey Gary when or where exactly did u run into Doug Heady, or did you guys go to meteorological school together? What or where exactly is the connection? I know he believes in the LRC weather pattern as well.

  • Emaw

    Billy Joe said it’s so dry down on the farm he can’t keep enough udder cream on hand (literally). In his words ” A moist teet’s a happy teet ” !