Good morning bloggers,
Thank you for participating in making your blogger winter forecasts. I will write something up for our website next week, and we will are currently working on the winter forecast that will come out on November 19th.
We continue to live in a frustrating place to enjoy exciting weather. The Drought In The Heartland has reached day 163….
Any of these four upper level forecast maps can be clicked on for a larger view. This first map shows this mornings 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. We look at this level of the atmosphere to track these storm systems as it is half way through the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight or ZERO milibars. The surface has a pressure of near 1,000 mb. So, 500 mb is right down the middle.
This first map, on the left shows the very functional and strong storm system still affecting the northeastern states this morning. And, there is a new storm developing near the Washington coast near Seattle this morning. This is also a rather functional and organized storm system. On this second map, right, the northeaster storm is lifting due north heading towards Greenland. And, the storm that is about to affect us is beginning to reorganize inland over the western states.
By later this weekend, on Sunday, the western storm just has not been modeled to get its act together. As you can see on this third map, left, the trough, that was a more functional and organized storm system is forecast to just stretch out and have a positive tilt as it slams into some invisible force field not allowing it to strengthen. The vorticity, the orange and yellow colors, is forecast to stretch out significantly from northeast to southwest and this will likely end up producing a rather short window of opportunity for rain.
By Tuesday afternoon the storm that is going to affect us will become smaller scale and negatively tilted north of the Great Lakes as it lifts northeast. We are left with zonal flow aloft, west to east, with a storm dropping towards the west coast. This next storm upstream doesn’t have near the energy that the first one has, but it is forecast to become negatively tilted and more energetic as it approaches us by next weekend.
Okay, back to this next chance of rain. As the energy spreads out in the positively tilted trough a band of significant rain and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop Sunday to our east. We will have a smaller window of opportunity for this band of precipitation as it moves by earlier in the day on Sunday. As discussed many times already this week, we need this storm to slow down, become more organized, and then we would have a more exciting storm to talk about in our area. This still has time to change a bit, but there has been no indication at all that it will. Here is the surface forecast valid at 6 PM Sunday. It will be a cold and windy Sunday afternoon with whatever rain we had ending and shifting to the east.
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this next storm on 41 Action News today and tonight.