Good morning bloggers,
It’s FRIDAY! The weather continues to be dry and today is day 150 of the Drought In The Heartland. This is the third straight dry October:
- October 2009: 3.66″ (November-February rainfall total: 5.70″)
- October 2010: 1.00″ (5.88″)
- October 2011: 0.22″ (11.11″)
- October 2012: 1.03″
As you can see above the amount of rain in October is not a good indicator of how much rain/snow will fall in the next four months. We had over 11 inches of rain during the next four months after last year’s extremely dry October. The weather pattern that we will experience during the next four months and much longer continues to evolve and there is a lot more to see in the coming weeks. I wouldn’t mind if a storm showed up soon, however. Since our weather is so boring, let’s look into the major storm system that will affect the eastern seaboard during the next few days.
Hurricane Sandy is barely hanging on to hurricane status this morning with 80 mph winds as she is off the coast of Florida. The forecast track of Sandy keeps her over the warm Gulf Stream waters allowing for the strong potential of Sandy maintaining near hurricane strength as she begins to threaten the coastal areas. The upper level flow is blocking up allowing the strong likelihood of Sandy turning right into New York by Monday night or Tuesday morning. You can click on this map for a larger view.
There is a blocking upper level high forming over the north Atlantic Ocean and this will prevent this storm from being kicked out to sea, and instead the exact opposite will happen. It will likely get pulled into the coast. This next map shows the surface forecast from the 00z GFS model valid at 7 PM Tuesday:
Sandy may maintain hurricane strength, or close to it as she drifts into the coastal areas. This will be a very slow moving storm. Since it is getting caught in this blocking pattern it will only slowly spin out and weaken affecting many areas for days. The impacts will be strong to extreme in some areas, but there are still many questions as to how much rain, how strong the winds will be, and on the exact track of this storm. It will certainly be talked about and be the lead story for days on the national networks.
Back home, we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight as temperatures will likely drop into the middle 20s in many areas with high pressure settling in overhead. Hopefully a more exciting weather pattern will show up for next week.
Here is a link to more information on Sandy from a blog entry written by Bob Henson, NCAR: Sandy Blog
Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the 41 Action Weather Blog. Have a great weekend.