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Dry Weather Continues…Freeze Warning Tonight…& SANDY

Good morning bloggers,

It’s FRIDAY!  The weather continues to be dry and today is day 150 of the Drought In The Heartland.  This is the third straight dry October:

October Rainfall:

  • October 2009:  3.66″ (November-February rainfall total:  5.70″)
  • October 2010:  1.00″ (5.88″)
  • October 2011:  0.22″ (11.11″)
  • October 2012:  1.03″

As you can see above the amount of rain in October is not a good indicator of how much rain/snow will fall in the next four months.  We had over 11 inches of rain during the next four months after last year’s extremely dry October. The weather pattern that we will experience during the next four months and much longer continues to evolve and there is a lot more to see in the coming weeks. I wouldn’t mind if a storm showed up soon, however.  Since our weather is so boring, let’s look into the major storm system that will affect the eastern seaboard during the next few days.

Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy is barely hanging on to hurricane status this morning with 80 mph winds as she is off the coast of Florida.  The forecast track of Sandy keeps her over the warm Gulf Stream waters allowing for the strong potential of Sandy maintaining near hurricane strength as she begins to threaten the coastal areas.  The upper level flow is blocking up allowing the strong likelihood of Sandy turning right into New York by Monday night or Tuesday morning.  You can click on this map for a larger view.

There is a blocking upper level high forming over the north Atlantic Ocean and this will prevent this storm from being kicked out to sea, and instead the exact opposite will happen. It will likely get pulled into the coast.  This next map shows the surface forecast from the 00z GFS model valid at 7 PM Tuesday:

Sandy may maintain hurricane strength, or close to it as she drifts into the coastal areas. This will be a very slow moving storm. Since it is getting caught in this blocking pattern it will only slowly spin out and weaken affecting many areas for days.  The impacts will be strong to extreme in some areas, but there are still many questions as to how much rain, how strong the winds will be,  and on the exact track of this storm.  It will certainly be talked about and be the lead story for days on the national networks.

Back home, we have a freeze warning in effect for tonight as temperatures will likely drop into the middle 20s in many areas with high pressure settling in overhead. Hopefully a more exciting weather pattern will show up for next week.

Here is a link to more information on Sandy from a blog entry written by Bob Henson, NCAR:  Sandy Blog

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the 41 Action Weather  Blog.  Have a great weekend.

Gary

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11 comments to Dry Weather Continues…Freeze Warning Tonight…& SANDY

  • frigate

    Gary, don’t know if I can keep the excitement down after recieving a whopping .04 in yesterdays soaking!!!The saga continues!!!

  • greek

    The only thin in my rain gauge yesterday was a dead leaf.

  • ColoradoMtnGuy

    Morning Gary, winter has arrived in Colorado. 7″ of snow over the past couple of days. It’s currently 3 degrees up here in the mountains with a windchill of -10. Denver and Boulder saw accumulating snow as well. Snow made it all the way out to Goodland. Hoping you all see a change and get some precip soon!

  • trinlivco

    Gary, To say this drought is a boring pattern is a under statement. Why is it that its always next week for a big change? I know you guys do your best in predicting the weather and all of us have to live with what mother nature deals us. Being a outdoorsman its very trying to put up with this dry weather. Lets hope and pray you are right about a big change and some rain!!!!!!! Thanks TR

  • TR,

    I am just hoping for a big change. I don’t see it at the moment. So, let’s hope when I write Monday’s blog we aren’t just talking about a storm thousands of miles away.

    Have a great weekend.

    Gary

  • Elizabeth

    My question might be silly, but I can’t help but ask… I thought that the water temperature had to remain near 80 degrees to sustain a hurricane. If that is true, is the water still that warm up there? I don’t doubt that the storm would still pack a punch, but would it still be a hurricane by the time it reached the area?

  • JohnNCWX

    Sandy is currently sitting over the gulfstream, yes the water is plenty warm.

    The wind field is huge with this storm. My mom’s local nws station has been reporting TS winds since 5am this morning, and she is over 300 miles from the center of the storm (on the weak side even)!

    Its a beast, thats for sure. So, Rdub, did I nail this storm or what?

  • mowermike

    John,

    You thought right…

    Winter forecast better have some good news.

    Mike

  • nrnmiz

    Hi Gary,
    My best friend gets married in KC next Saturday (11/3) and then heads to the Bahamas.. what weather can we expect for the big day, and will she have trouble going to the Bahamas for her honeymoon? Thanks!!

  • blueskies

    Weatherman Brad! Where are you?

  • mukustink

    I’m afraid Brad has been on the naughty sites again and mom has taken his computer away again! Brad the east coast needs you and you can’t control yourself. KFC will be very dissapointed in you. You are just like Kramer, no self control, and out of the contest early, very early.

    I hope this “super storm” does materalize or all mankind will lose faith in all the mets forecasting doom and gloom.