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Dry Start to June

Good Sunday bloggers,

May 15th to June 15th is on average the wettest time of year for the Plains and Midwest as we average 0.15″ to 0.20″ of rain per day.  So, for it to be so dry this time of year is not an easy thing to accomplish.  Here are some rainfall totals for the first eleven days of June.  Des Moines is still looking for their first drop!  The average rainfall for Des Moines in the first eleven days of June is 1.64″.  The door will open for rain chances by Wednesday, but will we walk through the door.  Let’s take a look at the week ahead,

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MONDAY: This will be another windy, hot and humid day with highs around 90°.  The best chance for thunderstorms will be along and north of I-80 where a front and the jet stream is located.

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TUESDAY: It will still be windy, hot and humid around here, but you can see a change to the west.  Thunderstorms will form from central Nebraska to central Kansas during the evening as a cold front approaches.  These thunderstorms will try to roll in to our region Wednesday morning.  The front may linger Wednesday, bringing a second chance Wednesday afternoon.  The data is not overly encouraging that these thunderstorms will be much by the time they arrive and any new development Wednesday is looking paltry.  Let’s now take a look at the pattern evolution this week as the rainfall chance door opens.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY-MONDAY: An upper level low will be in the western USA which pushes the jet stream north into the northern Plains and this is why the thunderstorms will be located up there the next two days.  We are in “capped” southwest flow which means warm air aloft is flowing overhead preventing thunderstorm development.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The western storm lifts into the northern Plains, squashing the heights over us and pushing the ridge to the east.  This puts the jet stream farther south, hence opening the door to rain chances.  You can see that if thunderstorms form to our west Tuesday evening, they could roll in here Wednesday morning.  It is something we will watch closely.  Thursday looks like a calm day, but a new disturbance in the flow will likely generate an MCS in western Kansas Thursday night.  This has a better chance to roll in Friday morning as the flow will stay west to northwest.  The location of the rainfall bulls eye is still an unknown and will need to be updated as we get closer.

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So, in summary the most intense thunderstorms this week will be found in the northern Plains where the flow aloft is stronger.  Our region will have one to three rain chances Wednesday-Friday with the best chance in KC Friday.  We could have some severe weather.  Again, we will have to update this day by day.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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