Dry Spell to Deluge

Good Sunday,

We had a strong cold front move through Saturday night and it made it’s presence known as we had a night of very heavy thunderstorms in Kansas City.  The good news is that the rest of the day will be mostly dry with highs around 70°.

Here are the radar estimated rainfall totals from last night, so your rain gauge may read differently.  Do the heaviest areas of rain look familiar?  It should, as these are basically the same locations that had 3-4 flooding events during the summer.  This is not a coincidence as we are in the same pattern that set up last fall.  Yes, the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis), is noticeable in this rainfall total layout.  The only reasons we did not have flooding is that we just came off a 20 day dry spell and amounts were 3″ to 5″, not 6″ to 10″.  A new pattern will set up during October and November and we are anxiously awaiting what unique pattern is about to evolve.


Here is a close in version of the rainfall totals.  Look at these amounts!  There was over 5″ south of Bonner Springs with 3″ to 5″ from Lawrence to Overland Park south to Paola and Harrisonville.

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What is next?  The cold front that came through last night will stall and return north as a warm front later tonight and Monday.  So, more thunderstorms are likely at those times. This is not a weak cold front as lows have been in the 30s and 40s from Nebraska to the Dakotas and Rockies.  Temperatures early Sunday ranged from 76° in Tulsa, OK to 34° in Rapid City, SD.

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SUNDAY NOON: The rain will be south of KC and it will be dry for kickoff with temperatures in the 60s.  Some sun will try to peek through the clouds.


SUNDAY 4 PM: It will be a dry afternoon with a few peeks of sun. An isolated lingering shower or sprinkle is possible, but the chance is less than 20%.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  If there is more sun, it will be in the mid 70s.


MONDAY 4 AM:  Here we go again.  A new round of thunderstorms will be on the way or it may be a few hours sooner.


MONDAY 8 AM: It looks like a wet Monday morning rush hour with rain and thunderstorms likely, heavy at times.  We will have to watch for flash flooding, especially in the locations that received 3″ to 5″ of rain Saturday night.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: The rain should be mostly over as highs climb to around 80° with rather high humidity.  If the warm front lingers Monday night, then more thunderstorms will be possible at that time into early Tuesday.


Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm and humid ahead of a new cold front that arrives Wednesday night.  This front will stall and we could have more heavy thunderstorms.  There will be more chances into next weekend, hopefully not interfering with the Plaza Art Fair.



We can’t forget about the tropics as there are three active systems in the Atlantic, Jose, Maria and Lee.


Here are the latest track forecasts for the three systems.  Lee will likely be harmless as he stays weak and out to sea.  Jose will come rather close to New England and may bring New York and Boston some nasty weather Tuesday and Wednesday.  Maria is another story and let’s take a closer look at her.


Oh no!  Maris is likely to become a major hurricane this week and affect the same islands that got devastated by Irma.  Maria may have an impact on the east coast of the USA in about 6-10 days.


Have a great week and GO CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

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