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Dry First Halves Of Months, Wet Second Halves!

Good morning bloggers,

It’s Friday! This holiday week likely left a few of us trying to figure out what day it was because the 4th of July fell on a Tuesday this year.  Next year it will fall on a Wednesday, and that will be interesting as well. I worked all week, so I know very well that it is FRIDAY!!! I am ready for the weekend.  Okay, so here I am babbling about the day of the week. Let’s look into this weather pattern.

Dry To Start Each Month In KC:

  • January 1st half:  0.65″      2nd half:  0.74″
  • February 1st half:  0.00″   2nd half:  0.06″
  • March 1st half:  0.42″        2nd half:  2.39″
  • April 1st half: 3.74″            2nd half:  2.90″
  • May 1st half:  0.89″            2nd half:  4.48″
  • June 1st half:  0.46″           2nd half:  5.97″
  • July 1st half:  0.27″             2nd half: ?
  • Total 1st half:  6.43″          2nd half:  13.64″

The first half of each month, with only one exception so far, has been much drier than the second half of each month. This is likely directly related to the fact that the patten is cycling in the 56-61 day range. A harmonic of that cycling pattern would be nearly on the scale of a month. And, another harmonic would be close to a half month. What is a harmonic fluctuation?  This was in my presentation that I made two weeks ago today.  In Astronomy, cycles are perfect. At the equator we have a 24 hour day and an equal 12 hour day and 12 hour night. So, a harmonic of one day would be a half day. You can go further and see the 1/4 harmonic at being from 6 AM to Noon and so on, or every six hours. These harmonics or mini cycles also exist within the cycling pattern that we are experiencing.

Here we are once again having a dry first half of July. We are now seven days in with no rain in sight at the moment and KCI Airport has only had 0.27″. KCI averages 4.45″ during July and last year 8.76″ fell during this month.  Last year, almost all of that rain fell during the first half of July, a very, very different weather pattern.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

Screen Shot 2017-07-07 at 7.30.59 AMThe upper level high, or anticyclone, is being modeled quite differently by the various computer models. What is likely going to happen is not being forecast by the past few GFS model runs. The European model solution is also likely flawed. What should happen is for this ridge to grow over the next few days, and then slide east across the plains by mid-next week, pop back up over the Rocky Mountains and then slide east again all the way to the east coast. The GFS model keeps the ridge over the west, and we believe that this model is not handling the ridge correctly at all.  You can see the forecast from this GFS model on the left, and you can see the forecast for the European model on the right:

Screen Shot 2017-07-07 at 7.29.43 AMThis European model solution shows the ridge forming and then ending up over the southeastern third of the nation. This is likely also flawed, but definitely a rather major heat wave developing solution.  The European model has had a very poor year in this cycling pattern. You likely haven’t heard much about this model in the past few months. Why? Because it has been so bad.  We only hear about this model when it wins and beats the other models. When it does poorly you will never hear about how it is doing. It is just this cycling pattern that has not been good for the European model, or really all of the models actually.

Anyway, let’s see how the models come in today. The weather across the nation is being dominated by this developing ridge right now, but get ready. The chance of July getting wet later this month across the plains is once again high. We already have experienced it in every month this year.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  Let us know if you have any questions. Have a great weekend.

Gary

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1 comment to Dry First Halves Of Months, Wet Second Halves!