Good morning bloggers,
We fell short of 100° yesterday with a high of 99°. A very weak wind shift and cold front is moving through this morning without even a cloud and it will be slightly cooler the next two days before near 100 degree heat spreads back in. There is no sign of rain and the National Weather Service has now placed our region in worsening drought conditions. You can click on either of the graphics below for a larger view (From the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, MO):
I just looked at the computer models and there isn’t really any chance of rain showing up that pops out at me. There may be a slight chance here and there but the next week to two weeks do not look very promising for any wide spread rain. One thing that does pop out at me is a strong potential for a lot more heat. The water bill is going to be high.
Gary
I guess this means that i nees to bring out my sprinkler systems and hook them up to prevent some rain on my front and back lawns. They are bone dry this morning.
Brad
Gary–Good morning—I see the potential for rain is slight for the next 7-10 days but will you update the LRC Blog with any additional information on the final months of this horrible weather pattern? By the way last week when Topeka received 2.02 at Billard we received 2.60 here in Berryton which correlates with Forbes Field which is just southwest of us. We are slightly higher in precip here than Billard. Here we are at 14.81 for the year while Billard is 13.64. Fortunately we live in a rural water district and pay lower water rates than in the city. Thanks for the information on the blog—Michael/Topeka/Berryton
So what happened Sunday’s forecast of 102? I was disappointed that almost the entire local weather media hyped the 100 benchmark (including 41) like it was a pending apocalyptic winter storm. We know it’s gonna be hot and dry this summer. We know that 100 degrees is not out of the norm for Kansas City. Are we to expect this kind of hype every week when the temps flirt with 100?
100 is an extreme benchmark. Extreme weather sells/generates viewers. What do you think they will do.
Dwight,
It hit 99 degrees. 100 is a psychological number that has more significance than other forecast numbers. Just like 32 degrees, perhaps. It hit 99 and we were within 3 degrees. The humidity held in a bit stronger and the temperatures just didn’t quite get as warm, but the forecast of 100 or 102 was still a pretty good forecast. Now, we, unfortunately, have another good chance of reaching or exceeding 100 this week. So, do you see that it wasn’t over-hyped? Our weather team forecasted this. Perhaps the news departments take it to a different level.
Gary
My weather get-up at home hit 100 yesterday.. while this is not “official”, In my mind I feel comfortable that 100 was reached at my house in Grain Valley. Plus rather it was 99 or 102 yesterday, I know that it was rather hot walking to and from the car yesterday afternoon…
So are you playing TO the psychology of your viewers? As scientists, shouldn’t weather forecasters shy away from “psychological” benchmarks in favor of numbers that actually mean something? You mentioned 32 degrees–well, that is the freezing point of water–it could mean the difference between 12 inches of snow or an inch of rain. There is virtually no scientific difference between 99, 100,, or even 101 degrees. The only thing it provides for is the giddiness of weather forecasters forecasting in an otherwise boring weather season. And it probably sells more A/C units for your sponsors.
Dwight,
I don’t make these “psychological” forecasts. We forecasted 102. It’s what I thought it would get up to. And, now I am thinking 103 or higher is possible this week. I will make adjustments to the 7 day if we strongly believe it will get that high.
Gary
I want to know what happened to the near average rainfall prediction from using the LRC. Seems to me the LRC is a bust as a accurate long range predication tool this year.
Agreed!
Gary I assume you are wanting to change your average rainfall forecast for this summer? I believe I mentioned drought a month or so ago. Oh well setlle in for a long hot summer. Hope everyones AC’s or up to the work!
Yes, rainfall forecast is changed! Way below average rainfall is likely!
Gary
AC’s are up to work not or oops.
lets not beat this dead horse any longer, please.
Farmgirl,
Unfortunately it is not panning out. That forecast is now changed. A hot/dry summer is now in the forecast.
Gary,
Now that spring is behind us and Summer is in full effect, will you be doing a verification review of the Spring Forecast?
Jerry,
Spring forecast failed! Drought is strengthening. New summer forecast is DRY and HEAT WAVES!
ugh. heat waves. oh well, it’s summer, it’s the midwest. but some MODERATE temps would be nice!!
Is the cold front going to make it here? It’s only noon and we’re already hotter than we got yesterday (98). 12:18 and it’s already 101 in the shade at my house.
The cold front went through. It is very weak.
I live in South olathe and its 101.F here.
Heat advisory has just now been extended southward west of kansas city, does not include wichita yet but i imagine they will be in it as well to soon. It does include emporia though.
Brad
Now the high at my house in South Olathe is 103.F.!
102 on the weather station yesterday here two miles south of Reno.
My pond is the lowest I have seen it since I moved here in 2005.
Gary my friend. Do yourself a favor. Make video of yourself with forecast “insane heat” and “no rain” to play for next 3 months. Then take vacation someplace cooler like here in Qatar with even outdoors air conditioned. No humidity. No plants need to water. No beer either but noplace perfect. See you soon.
It certainly seems like it is settling in for the summer, but that would be very unusual. Hopefully we get a real cold front and chance of rain within two weeks.
Gary
Dew Point of 75 at JoCo Exec. Wow.
Gary since it looks like the weather will be boring for a while maybe you can tell us in the next few days what went wrong with the long range forecast? What happened in the pattern that you didn’t see happening?
It is complex and difficult to explain. Each chance of rain showed up as I would have expected. Each severe weather potential showed up as I thought it would. But, the production of precipitation in this pattern has just been a struggle. So, we learn and make better forecasts in the future. Looking back at the pattern I can see where we could have forecasted this more accurately. Perhaps I look at ways the pattern can produce rain, instead of ways that it may not. I will be looking at both angles closer in the future.
Gary
And once again. The LRC is being picked apart by people.
Hurray.
Fact is, Is that its gonna be a hot and dry summer. Not near average Precip. It’s funny really. We have seen this Omega Block for the entire past cycle of it. And yet they still went with Average precip when all indications were a very dry and very hot summer where a Anti-cyclone will just sit and park over Central Kansas and Oklahoma. The jet stream will be way north. And we will have nothing. Suchan and Busby both had this locked up. It’s funny. Btw. I’m very certain that the Start date for the cycle isnt October first-Nov 15th anymore. Do some more research on it. You know, Actually sitting down and doing it. Rather than having someone do it for ya.
Please explain:
garyrocks41
July 28, 2011 at 4:44 PM
MowerMikey you asked for the picture of my NATURAL GREEN front yard and I sent the pic to you and no comment from you. You asked for proof and I gave it to you and not a word. Like I said it is all in the soil and the grass seed and how you take care of it. Guess I should buy your lawn business so the lawns stay green hey!
mukustink
June 11, 2012 at 12:10 PM
MIKE you going to PAINT your yard again because you can’t keep it green? Come on Mike you can’t even keep your own yard green. I beleive I showed you proof mine is green all season long. You call yourself an expert yet you paint your yard. WOW.
Like you always say “Let’s not let the facts get in the way.”
You see, I never had the green turf paint conversation with Mukustinks. I think this proves my point. The evidence doesn’t lie. Time to come clean…
Looks like Florida will be out of a drought in 24-48 hrs!!! Seems that this weather pattern is opposite for everybody, the last few yrs we have had summers that were fairly wet and cool, and now this summer is dry and hot
Not fun when working i prep at work (I still love it), but it’s about 130+ degrees in that tunnel!!!
Hi Gary,
It’s Johnny P out in Colorado. Haven’t posted since winter but read the blog everyday. I live in the mountains and have never seen it this dry in the ten years I’ve lived here. We live at 9,600 feet and are having highs in the mid 80′s….which is very rare and haven’t had a drop of rain in weeks. There are several large fires across Colorado with a new one closer to us than I’d like. Do you see any relief for us in the next few weeks? Our communities are at extreme fire danger risk with Stage 2 restrictions in place. We lost 26 homes in Estes Park yesterday and the entire town of Manitou Springs has been evacuated….not to mention the Fort Collins fire. High of 105 in Denver today, 88 here (and no one up here has a/c). Sure hope so….from a very dry and worried Coloradoan.
I,m watching “South Park” right now. Do you live close to there?