Good morning bloggers,
We have been expecting January to be a rather calm month. And, it has lived up to that forecast. February has been forecast, based on the LRC, to be much more active closer to Kansas City. But, for now, we are still in the grips of what very well may be a worsening drought:
The drought developed late last winter into early spring. We actually had a somewhat wet winter last year, which mostly fell in the form of rain. We did set the all time lowest snowfall record (3.9″) last winter, and we are currently below that total (3.6″) this winter. But it is going to snow next month. How much precipitation will fall in February and March? We are still forecasting below average rain and snow, so the drought will likely continue to worsen as we move into spring. Here are the numbers since last April:
A big warm-up is developing today and will spread over a large area of the United States ahead of a strong cold front. The jet stream is going to strengthen in response to this strong temperature contrast developing and a disturbance will dive south to near the USA/Canada border by Saturday morning:
The above map shows the 500 mb flow, and the below map shows the surface forecast valid at the same time. A huge warm sector develops tonight into Friday and by Saturday morning we are under it’s influence. This should result in a temperature rise to near 60 degrees ahead of the front:
The strong cold/Arctic front will be crossing the USA/Canada border early Saturday morning. Out ahead of this we will have downslope warming and it could surge much higher than we are currently forecasting for Saturday’s high (57°). We may up that forecast high after we analyze this morning’s data. If cloud cover is limited, then 60 or higher is likely. Here is the 850 mb forecast valid at the same time:
We are going to be in the axis of warmest temperatures at this level as we move into Saturday morning.
Have a great Thursday and watch 41 Action News today and tonight. We will update our forecast and look ahead to our next chance of rain or snow. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.