Good morning bloggers,
Did you notice the smoke in the sky this morning, and yesterday. Smoke from wildfires across the Rocky Mountain states has spread over our sky in the flow aloft. I took this picture of the sunrise this morning:
It’s Friday! And, today is day 80 of the Drought In The Heartland. Rainfall amounts were mostly in the trace to .03″ range, and one thunderstorm caused more than an hour delay at the Midwest Classic golf tournament at the Links at Lionsgate golf course in Overland Park. Only .01″ of rain fell and there were two lightning strikes near by, but that was it.
Despite the smoke in our sky this morning, it is a great start to the day. We are forecasting the upper 70s to near 80 for the next three days. A weak disturbance will be moving our way on Saturday with a band of clouds thickening up, but the chance of measurable rain is under 50% even though I do believe it will sprinkle again. The chance of a sprinkle is 80% Saturday evening.
Have a great Friday! I will work on a more in-depth weather discussion on our weathercasts beginning at 4:30 PM today on 41 Action News.
Gary
Well at least the temps are tolerable and cool weather for the weekend is perfect.
If you are looking for something different to do, check Longview Horse Park Saturday evening. The KC Missouri Foxtrotter Horse club is hosting a show and there will be some very entertaining classes to watch.
Gary. Here is the joke of the day. Have a great weekend!
A husband and his wife were sound asleep when suddenly the phone rang.
The husband picked up the phone and said, “Hello? How the heck do I know? What do I look like, a weatherman?” He then slammed the phone down and settled into bed.
“Who was that?” asked his wife.
“I don’t know. It was some guy who wanted to know if the coast was clear.”
I’m wondering the only way we’re going to get any rain, is for a low pressure system to organize in a favorable place. (where ever that might be) Everytime one of these fronts pushes through, for countless reasons, it turns into a bust. Then once the front reaches central and southern MO storms explode…St Louis and Springfield picked up 1-2 inches yesterday…its just amazing how this keeps happening, while we get a few sprinkles!!!
So we are at day 80 of the drought. What will it take for the count to stop? Will it take a wide spread 2 inch rain? Or is it that we need to get back above average on rainfall for a month or more?
If we use the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Drought Monitor as defining when an area is in a drought, which I think is how Gary is defining it (since we’ve had below average rainfall for more than 80 days, since April), it will likely be AT LEAST some time next year before we’re out of this drought. This is assuming we have a wet “LRC” pattern this fall/winter/spring. If somehow we get deluged with 12-15″ of rain the next 2.5 months before the dry season of Nov-Feb sets in, the drought would be over or close to it, but there would be flooding. We’re almost a foot of rain below average and increasing by over 1/10 inch per day, and our rain prospects look rather bleak for many days to come. A 2 to 4 inch general rain won’t end a drought this bad, although it might reduce its severity a category or two to extreme or severe. If our next “LRC” pattern gives us, at best, average precipitation, the drought in some form as shown by the Drought Monitor will likely continue through most or all of next year.
After such a hot summer it was nice to set a record low this morning at KCI.
We seem to be in a winter weather pattern these days…northwest flow…dry cold fronts…cloudy days with only a trace of precip…
If this drought does not improve, there are going to be some extremely high fire danger situations when we have those occasional autumn days featuring 30 to 50 mph wind gusts.
Gary, didyou checkout the temperature this morning in yellowstone national park in wyoming it read 33 degrees there this morning and it was so close to the frezzing point. I think we skiped fall and now in some sort of a winter weather pattern. Just wanted
to point that out.
Brad
I think that wintr3 will be her soner then we thought. It is strting to get cold alrday on the KU campes it is getting briske outside. As for the rain tomorrow I was loking at my models software and Don not se a chance. The drugght will continue.
Brad
We won’t get jack out of these little things coming down from the Northwest and never do. We need storms from the West or Southwest.
Alright I just feel compelled to repsond to weathermanbrad about his comment on Yellowstone and 33 degree temp and pls take weatherman out of ur name
Yellowstone is at 8,000ft elevation and these are very normal temperatures for them.
For you to say we skipped fall because Yellowstone hit 33 (fairly normal low) is an unbelievable ststement!! It often snows there in late August.
Please do ur homework first next time…
I see that a tropical storm has formed in the southern gulf of mexico as of the 4pm cdt advisory and its name is helene, we will have to watch this storm closely now as it has a possible impact of the southern united states as it could swing up to kansas as a renament low and affect us a little bit in the weeks ahead.
Brad
Brad I’m proud of you! Your spelling is ok. I think your forecast is wrong. Are you in your dorm room now at KU? Do you have a room mate? Why do you think the TS may swing up to Kansas? Will you make a winter forecast for us coming up? Now you just need to work on capitalization! Good luck in your “junior” year at KU.
Gary have you ever had any windows broken at your home with it being right by a green on a golf course? Is home owners insurance higher being on a golf course? Just curious.
Thanks muku,
I wont be making a winter forecast untill maybe the middle of fall or the end of fall it gives me the chance to look over the new weather pattern and see how it evolves and transforms for the 2012-2013 season.
I just think that the TS has a little bit of a chance of swinging up to kc but i am watching it, the current track has it possibly affecting the southern united states and deep south texas we will see what happens to it.
I am not in my dorm room now at ku, infact i leave for lawrence sunday since the first day of class courses start on monday august 20th so saturday is my last day in kc. I wont find out if i get a room mate this year at ku untill sunday or monday.
Brad L
here you go FWIW
“http://www.cirruswx.net/apps/blog/entries/show/17999931-cirrus-weather-preliminary-winter-2012-13-outlook”
The record lows can be attributed to the drought as well. Look at the dew points. With relative humidity like Phoenix, you get big daily temperature swings. Instead of the normal 20-25 degree spread, you get 40+ degree spreads and big evaporative cooling at night.
Get used to it. The drought isn’t going away. Only chance we have this year is for a hurricane to blow through the gulf and end up over us for a few days. Highly unlikely.
Weatherman Brad says, “I just think that the TS has a little bit of a chance of swinging up to kc but i am watching it, the current track has it possibly affecting the southern united states and deep south texas we will see what happens to it.”