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Drought Extends Out Into Northern Missouri: A Look At The LRC Cycles

Good morning bloggers,

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I will begin todays blog entry with Sunny The Weather Dog showing the tops of old thunderstorms.  These thick anvil cirrus clouds were what was leftover after Kansas thunderstorms fell apart long before they made it into eastern Kansas.  At this time of the year this is a very difficult thing to happen, to have thunderstorms not make it east to KC.  Alberto made landfall on the Florida Panhandle on Memorial Day and Kansas City was on the western fringe of the circulation.  A few isolated thunderstorms formed and tracked west over our area due to this influence on Monday.

The LRC In Kansas City & Amarillo:

The Northern Hemisphere is in the sixth cycle of this years pattern. The LRC sets up in October and we have identified October 6th as the beginning of this years pattern.  Today is day 1 of LRC Cycle 6. Let’s look at how the cycles have produced in KC and AMA.

  • LRC Cycle 1, October 6 – November 22:  KCI (5.07″ & No Snow), AMA (0.22″ & No Snow)
  • LRC Cycle 2, November 23 – January 7:  KCI (0.37″ & 2.2″), AMA (Trace & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 3, January 8 – February 23:  KCI (2.19″ & 3.6″), AMA (0.01″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 4, February 24 – April 11:  KCI (2.27″ & 1.9″), AMA (0.24″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 5, April 12 – May 28:  KCI (5.69″ & T), AMA (0.78″ & Trace)
  • LRC Cycle 6: May 29 – July 14
  • LRC Cycle 7:  July 15- August 30
  • LRC Cycle 8:  August 31 – this LRC ends, and new LRC begins in early October 2018

The drought has continued over northern Missouri. St. Joseph, MO has had less than 5″ of rain so far this year, which is incredible, and the lowest total ever recorded through May. Here is the drought monitor:

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 6.37.15 AM

The “exceptional drought”, as described by the Climate Prediction Center, was located from parts of Arizona east to Amarillo, TX.  The northeastern extension of the drought extends through the St. Joseph, MO region.  We are experiencing now symptoms of why we didn’t have much snow during the winter. This pattern continues to frustrate many of us.

There are Flash Flood Watches today.  Here are the advisories:

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Look at the rainfall forecast for the next ten days from last nights European Model:

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 6.36.04 AM

There is a risk of severe weather today:

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We are in the forecasted active period from months ago to arrive between May 28th – June 3rd, but Kansas City will continue to struggle to have any good chances of thunderstorms. One of these chances will arrive later tonight, so let’s monitor these thunderstorms closely. But, again, we are experiencing symptoms of why we got missed all winter long when it came to functional producing storm systems for snow.

Kansas City Forecast:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny.  Light east to southeast winds around 5-15 mph. High:  91°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with thunderstorms approaching and weakening. They may make it into the KC area. The chance of thunderstorms is 40% later tonight.  Low:  67°
  • Wednesday:  There is a chance of early morning thunderstorms.  High:  88°

The tropical season got an early start.  It is not unheard of to have an early named storm, but it rarely does happen.  Weather2020 made a forecast for a very active hurricane season predicting Florida as being in the center of the targeted region for the season.  This is just the beginning of what will likely end up being quite wild.  Again, Alberto was predicted by Weather2020 137 days before it happened.  Here is what I presented as a target for this part of the cycling pattern, that will return two more times this season.

Tropical Storm Verification & Forecast

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation. Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog

 

Gary

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