The Drought In The Heartland continues to worsen as we move into the second week of August. KCI Airport has had 3.11″ of rain since June 1st. The average rainfall for June 1st to August 6th is 10.35″.
A few rain showers made it into the area on Saturday as a weak cold front moved through. This picture says it all. We can see a double rainbow, but notice how the rainbows get cut off a few thousand feet above us. The rain falling was evaporating on the way down to the ground and the sun shining, reflecting, and refracting through the rain shower created the rainbow. But, closer to the ground only a few drops made it to the ground and this is why the rainbow got cut off, another symptom of the drought conditions. Rozy Centonze posted this on my facebook page. Thank you Rozy for the great picture! This was taken near Lenexa, KS.
The weather forecasts last week were not very accurate. The cloud cover associated with disturbances in northwest flow around the anticyclone caused it to be much cooler than our forecasts on several days. We will work hard this week at getting our forecasts back to much better level of accuracy. We weren’t within three degrees four days in a row. There are some more forecast problems showing up this week.
There are some signs of something different and new happening as the North Pole begins to cool off. Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid at 7 PM tonight:
The anticyclone, heat wave creating machine, has shifted to it’s average summer position over the four corners states. This is where it would be if there were no other forcing mechanisms going on, right over the hottest air is usually located during the summer. We are in the northerly flow around this system and still under it’s influence. Take a look way up to the north. A strong storm is forecast to develop near the North Pole. This is the first sign of a change in the weather pattern, the beginning of a transition that will take weeks to months to establish the new LRC in October. Between now and then the pattern will still resemble and act more like last year’s pattern. Now, hopefully a subtle difference will develop so we can have better chances for rain. Right now, I just don’t see it yet.
It is a gorgeous morning and some spots dipped into the 50s this morning. It feels nice outside, but it will warm up into the middle 90s this afternoon. Have a great Monday!