Good morning,
The Drought In The Heartland continues to worsen as we move into the second week of August. KCI Airport has had 3.11″ of rain since June 1st. The average rainfall for June 1st to August 6th is 10.35″.
A few rain showers made it into the area on Saturday as a weak cold front moved through. This picture says it all. We can see a double rainbow, but notice how the rainbows get cut off a few thousand feet above us. The rain falling was evaporating on the way down to the ground and the sun shining, reflecting, and refracting through the rain shower created the rainbow. But, closer to the ground only a few drops made it to the ground and this is why the rainbow got cut off, another symptom of the drought conditions. Rozy Centonze posted this on my facebook page. Thank you Rozy for the great picture! This was taken near Lenexa, KS.
The weather forecasts last week were not very accurate. The cloud cover associated with disturbances in northwest flow around the anticyclone caused it to be much cooler than our forecasts on several days. We will work hard this week at getting our forecasts back to much better level of accuracy. We weren’t within three degrees four days in a row. There are some more forecast problems showing up this week.
There are some signs of something different and new happening as the North Pole begins to cool off. Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid at 7 PM tonight:
The anticyclone, heat wave creating machine, has shifted to it’s average summer position over the four corners states. This is where it would be if there were no other forcing mechanisms going on, right over the hottest air is usually located during the summer. We are in the northerly flow around this system and still under it’s influence. Take a look way up to the north. A strong storm is forecast to develop near the North Pole. This is the first sign of a change in the weather pattern, the beginning of a transition that will take weeks to months to establish the new LRC in October. Between now and then the pattern will still resemble and act more like last year’s pattern. Now, hopefully a subtle difference will develop so we can have better chances for rain. Right now, I just don’t see it yet.
It is a gorgeous morning and some spots dipped into the 50s this morning. It feels nice outside, but it will warm up into the middle 90s this afternoon. Have a great Monday!
Gary
Gary,are you dismissing the August heat wave that you referred to in earlier blogs(112 degrees)?
Man I hope so tushchasher… I would love nothing more than to see a bit cooler temps for the rest of this summer….
I hope so too!
felt almost fall like when i left for work at 5:15 this morning. i sure hope we’re done with the excessive heat. just regular ol’ “seasonal” sounds good right now.
Got down to 62 last night two miles South of Reno.
60 degrees this morning and 2.13″ inches of rain since June 1st.
54 just south of Cameron at 5am. I was startled when I opened the door to let the dogs out and was blasted with cold air! No wonder my a/c wasn’t working lol.
We missed the rain once again in Cameron, MO….this make the sixth time there has been rain close but hasn’t made it.
Only .29″ here since June 1st. Things are showing the effects in a bad way.
Where do you get the archived 500 mb maps? I once knew and now I can’t find them.
Ok, so I am confused Which is it? Read 7/31 blog called August Forecast.
HOT……doom for August….worst heat of summer coming.
Gary you also showed a 384 hour GFS map on TV showing
594MB high crushing us around August 14th.
Now we are jumping on the NORMAL weather pattern for the rest of Summer…..
So which is it?? LRC?? MODELITITIS?? NO CLUE??
It is door #3 brucer. This (LRC) year continues to be a huge black eye to the existence of an LRC.
I have to agree. I really want the LRC to be a reality because the potential is tremendous. However, this year does give me all sorts of doubts as to whether it exists or a wishful thinking marketing tool.
Looks like the high temp forecasts are taking yet another hit today with yet another bust.
What forecast high did you see from yesterday? I’m pretty sure George predicted mid 90′s for today. It’s 95 at KCI right now.
Jerry,
We forecasted 96 and missed by one degree. Wow, that’s bad! Last week was BAD. Now, we are one for one this week. This weather pattern is a tough one day by day to forecast. I am sure you are bringing up the updated forecast from this morning.
The hurricane in the Gulf looks like it is taking a fairly westerly/NW track. This would push it up through S. Texas but how will the high that is positioned there affect it? What does it mean for us here? Any chance this would bring us some rain?
I am so loving this weather! Spent yesterday at the park with family! I hope it sticks around for awhile. I can’t speak for others but the air feels different and it seems like there is a change happening. The past two days have felt more like Fall than August.
Megan
lol…95 feels like fall?
I think it’s safe to say the LRC does exist, it’s just not that great of a forecasting tool when it comes to surface conditions.
Mike I have a Montana with the raised living room up front and bedroom in back. Thanks for tree info. Was at Drs. And hospital for pre surgery testing.
I hope the heat stays away! I don’t want to be sweating with staples in my back. Looks like this weekend should be nice.
Ed,
Cool! Hope ur surgery goes well. The hospitals must love you.
Yes,stay away heat, now bring the rain……sometime soon….
There’s mikey blowin the team again. Shouldnt you be thinking about how your going to pay your bills. I know this is crushing your business!!
Just stating the facts. I know it it really hurts when a forecast is right.
No worries on paying bills…..plenty in the tank
I know I built at least the first floor of St. Joseph Medical Center!. It was bad when I went to the hospital and everyone knew who I was when I had my 3 back surgeries back in 95 and 96 and all of my pain mgmt appointments before and after the surgeries. I keep waiting for my plaque to go up
If theres plenty in that so called tank then whats the deal. Lets be real we both know you owe plenty of people, i am sure you owe the irs too with all those cash and illegal guys you have workin!
Care to name those people? If you can’t,then,well, just a bunch of talk. It’s called business and terms….every business owes!! My are all within terms…So, I ask again, who?
I’ll wait…..my bet is that you got nothing.
If things dont work out you can always paint lawns. I hear you pretty good at it.
I went in the other room, thought maybe I missed your response. Nope!! Talk, but no solid facts. Case closed.
You should know those that you owe. Your living the american dream, run up a account and then move on to the next. If thats something you can live with thats fine but for the rest of us we play by the rules!
Once again, facts. Still all talk. What account is ran up? I’ll drive there first thing in the morning and pay. I’m sure of no balances with anyone. Please advise on who I owe.
I need to know this, because it’s only right that they get paid.
I’ll wait again for some facts and who I owe.
With all the elections coming up you should think about running. Your ad could say something on the order of … Why pay taxes , i dont! Or maybe something about giving illegals jobs, you would get a lot of support then.
What about all that money you owe the courts from your felony charge Storm00? See,I can do it too!! This is fun>
Facts……….please. You can come by the office in the morning and we can look over bills. I promise you, I don’t owe one vendor. We can visit them all tomorrow and clear the confusion.
Banks, different story..but that’s business.
IRS, you always owe them. That never goes away.
You dont owe if you pay your bills. Like i said some of us play by the rules.
Mikey you better get to bed, you’ve got a business to run into the ground!!
Ok, good night Muk.
Once again, no facts. I got nothing to hide. I can prove everything I have said. My gut feeling is, you couldn’t do the same.