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Could a storm be showing up? We need one!

Welcome to November bloggers,

Good morning, and a reminder….this is the weekend for the time change. We fall back Saturday night at 2 AM, which will suddenly become 1 AM. This is an exciting day for meteorologists because the new data will be coming in one hour earlier beginning Sunday morning. YES!  The weather pattern may be about to go through a very important change, but my confidence is still a bit shaky. Let’s take a look.

Upper level energy is forecast to blast in over the western states within a week. Take a look at this GFS model solution valid one week from today:

This GFS model forecast, above, has been very consistent the past four or five model runs while the ECMWF has been taking this energy and leaving it offshore.  The ECMWF (European model) has come around to a solution closer to the consistent GFS model, but I still have concerns with this being a week out. This is a very important development and something to track closely the next few days as we just completed a dry October and November is also starting out dry.

This next map is the GFS forecast for the 500 mb flow three days later on November 11th.  A deep and strong upper level storm is being forecast by the 06z (1 AM) GFS model last night.  If this comes close to happening during these next ten days, then we will finally have some weather excitement to discuss in our part of the world.  This potential storm will depend on how the blocking pattern, that helped create Superstorm Sandy with the hurricane and snowstorm combining into one mammoth storm system, breaks down. As the block breaks down the energy coming into the west coast may just do what the last few GFS models have been showing, and it would be a part of cycle one of the LRC.  You can click on either of these two maps for a larger view.

This next map is the surface forecast valid on November 11th, also from the 06z GFS model run.  That is one very wet band of rain and thunderstorms with snow back over western and central Kansas.  It is all just fantasy right now, but it could become reality and we need it bad.  We just completed October with 1.08 inches of rain. Last year in October we only had 0.22″, but then 4.89″ fell during November in 2011.  We know last winter was pretty much snow free with our record lowest snowfall total ever recorded, but the winter months produced well above average rainfall. It just never was cold enough during those wet storm systems for snow.  This next ten day stretch is an important one to watch.

I will be going over the details of these trends if they continue to show up in todays models. I will do this beginning at 4:30 PM.  Today, I am actually on the taping of  the game show “Let’s Ask America”. A meteorologist version of the show is taping today and I will let you know when it is going to air on 41 Action News at 6:30 PM. If you have never seen the show, try to watch it this evening or any night at 6:30 PM. I think it is a great show where contestants skype in and play the game. The questions are Family Feud type questions.  Hopefully I am not the first one off the show today.

Have a great day!  We will hopefully be continuing this discussion of this potential change in the weather pattern for later next week in the coming days.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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31 comments to Could a storm be showing up? We need one!

  • “Lets Ask America” is already “Jumping the Shark” … That should be its new name, “Jumping The Shark”…

  • By the way , If you,re looking 10 days out , Why did you not look 10 days out at the “Storm of the New Century”,and report its impact on the NE (Hurricane Sandy) like the KFC, and Weatherman Brad ??? Speaking of “Jumping The Shark”. I think you know what I mean…… Have a good 1. :)

    • Say what you want about that show Kevin, but I do like it a lot. The Skype may be lower quality than being inside of a studio, but it does allow the contestants to be who they really are. And, it makes it easier to have contestants from all over the country, in communities far reaching to be on a game show with a chance to win. I have watched the show a few times and it really is fun, entertaining, the host is good, and people win! My charity today is The Humane Society of Greater Kansas City where Stormy and Breezy were adopted from.

      • I thought they were supposed to be your average Joe playing the game, not celebrities…

      • Gary, I have just come home,and after further review of your response, I,m confused….you said,’Say what you want. but “I” do like it a lot”…Arn,t you being “biased”, considering….Again, All you Bloggers, who in my readings,being a bunch of BULLIES(especially YOU Miky)…

    • mowermike

      KFC predicted it??? How about the ECMWF predicted it and the KFC just regurgitated it on here…??>>??

  • mowermike

    Who’s getting fired tomorrow morning???

    Romeo Crennel or Norv Turner…..

  • Unstay_Bill

    Whats the odds on Gary tweeting to put Stanzi in at some point tonight?

  • mowermike

    Pretty good odds Bill!! He’s a passionate fan.

    There is a reason they’re not playing Stanzi……..he’s just as bad

  • mukustink

    Gary it sure is looking like a dry pattern again for theis next LRC. You should be getting a handle on the next LRC shouldn’t you? What are your early thoughts on the new pattern?

  • sedsinkc

    Now, about this wishstorm for next week. Gary, the forecast map shows a somewhat positively tilted feature and the heaviest precip axis is east of Kansas City, which makes sense. Storm needs to dig deeper and get some negative tilt if we hope to get a sizable rain event out of it.

  • mowermike

    Seds.

    Sure glad you didn’t make the trip east like you mentioned you might. That was a deadly storm and the recovery may take some time. I hate to think that they might still be finding victims, but the truth is, many people are missing. Sad indeed.. death toll likely to rise.

    Just read a story of a woman caught in flood waters with her vehicle, she escaped with her 2 and 4 year old boys, but the next surge of water stripped her boys away, I believe they’re still missing. Awful. I have a 4 and 3 year old and a 4 month old,(all boys) if that happened to me, might as well take me too…couldn’t live on

    • sedsinkc

      Mike, my common sense took hold of me and made me realize it would be a bad idea to travel to the storm zone. Very unfortunate situation, especially in New York City and New Jersey, though other areas were hammered as well.

  • StormyWX

    What I have to ask you is, or frankly anyone, what do you think about this very long article that was just posted on your website about experts predicting that Sandy is just the first of many “superstorms” in what is now/will now/will soon be a “superstorm era.” What do you think of all this?

    Here’s the link for those of you who haven’t seen it yet:

    http://www.kshb.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/in-wake-of-sandy-experts-warn-of-superstorm-era-to-come

  • f00dl3

    How many significant weather/earth events have taken place in the past decade? Let’s see – 2003 Tornado outbreak here in the metro, 2005 wild hurricane season + Katrina, 2006 sumatra earthquake, super tuesday tornado outbreak, 4/27/11 “Super” outbreak, this super storm on the east coast, snowmageddon w/ the blizzard in Feb ’11.

    Yes – it’s apparent storms are getting more severe.

    Or is it? Maybe there is just MORE PEOPLE LIVING IN COASTAL AREAS AND MORE PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS THAT WERE RURAL BEFORE MODERN TIMES! Don’t forget the fact that before weather satellites, who knows how active hurricane seasons were? Unless they made landfall or ships were in their path, nobody even knew they existed. Or tornado outbreaks in the past – who knows, maybe the 1970s mega outbreak would have 3x the tornadoes if we had as many people living out there as we do now?

    I think there’s more factors. I’m f-ing sick of people hyping this to global warming without realizing that with modern technology, of course stuff is going to be noticed more often. They say the Arctic ice shelf melted for the first time in X years – how do we know? It’s not like people live there to report that it’s melted before – we are going by GUESSES based on ice core samples. The earth is getting hotter every month, oddly enough, probably there are temperature reporting stations going up between 70 N & 70 S at a rate 3x faster than reporting stations are going up N or S of those latitudes. Of course it’s going to be a record warm month or year when we have Scientists not weighing arctic readings appropriately!

  • cilkman

    What is more boring??? Our weather pattern or watching the Chiefs lose every freakin week???

  • trinlivco

    Gary, I sure hope the change happens next week. It is dry, dry and very dry. Hate this weather, lord knows we need the rain. Please make it happen. Thanks TR

  • blueskies

    Storm of the Century comes and goes, no Weatherman Brad. Now a hint of a winter storm. If Brad does show up soon, I’m thinking a missing persons report is in order.

  • dogsinkc

    Oh goodie, I read about a potential storm for next Thursday this morning and just come back to see good old 70 degrees instead!

    Another great season for snow lovers and skiers!

  • Theo

    An often overlooked factor is the availability of instant information today. When the Armistice Day Blizzard happened on Nov. 11-12, 1940, it took several days to get all of the impacts of the storm into all of the newspapers and radio of the time. Today, there would be instant updates on the internet and social media.

    What’s the point? The “experts” who are predicting stormaggedon with more frequency discount prior events as being “insignificant”. Well, Dad remembers the duck hunters who literally froze to death in their boats (MN) and having to tie a rope from the house to the barn in order to get to get back and forth. Also, the cows that froze standing up in the fields. Millions of turkeys froze to death (huge T-Day shortage that year).

    Yes, the lack of forecasting (remember-no satellites) caused a false sense of security which we generally do not have today. But to say that future storms will be worse than prior storms is foolish. One could look at any number of events. I remember the winter of 78-79 in MN. Drifts over the house; my oldest brother going out an upstairs window to dig out. No power for WEEKS. We dealt with it.

    With technology comes progress. Also comes lax attitudes and few survival skills.

  • f00dl3

    Anyone have papers that either prove or disprove this global warming stuff? Seems it’s going to really heat up – especially if next year is a major drought year once again (as the decadial pattern would predict.) If we go into another dust bowl or even more severe drought like in the late 1800s as someone mentioned before, everyone’s gonna be blaming global warming for it – I just know it!