Welcome to November bloggers,
Good morning, and a reminder….this is the weekend for the time change. We fall back Saturday night at 2 AM, which will suddenly become 1 AM. This is an exciting day for meteorologists because the new data will be coming in one hour earlier beginning Sunday morning. YES! The weather pattern may be about to go through a very important change, but my confidence is still a bit shaky. Let’s take a look.
Upper level energy is forecast to blast in over the western states within a week. Take a look at this GFS model solution valid one week from today:
This GFS model forecast, above, has been very consistent the past four or five model runs while the ECMWF has been taking this energy and leaving it offshore. The ECMWF (European model) has come around to a solution closer to the consistent GFS model, but I still have concerns with this being a week out. This is a very important development and something to track closely the next few days as we just completed a dry October and November is also starting out dry.
This next map is the GFS forecast for the 500 mb flow three days later on November 11th. A deep and strong upper level storm is being forecast by the 06z (1 AM) GFS model last night. If this comes close to happening during these next ten days, then we will finally have some weather excitement to discuss in our part of the world. This potential storm will depend on how the blocking pattern, that helped create Superstorm Sandy with the hurricane and snowstorm combining into one mammoth storm system, breaks down. As the block breaks down the energy coming into the west coast may just do what the last few GFS models have been showing, and it would be a part of cycle one of the LRC. You can click on either of these two maps for a larger view.
This next map is the surface forecast valid on November 11th, also from the 06z GFS model run. That is one very wet band of rain and thunderstorms with snow back over western and central Kansas. It is all just fantasy right now, but it could become reality and we need it bad. We just completed October with 1.08 inches of rain. Last year in October we only had 0.22″, but then 4.89″ fell during November in 2011. We know last winter was pretty much snow free with our record lowest snowfall total ever recorded, but the winter months produced well above average rainfall. It just never was cold enough during those wet storm systems for snow. This next ten day stretch is an important one to watch.
I will be going over the details of these trends if they continue to show up in todays models. I will do this beginning at 4:30 PM. Today, I am actually on the taping of the game show “Let’s Ask America”. A meteorologist version of the show is taping today and I will let you know when it is going to air on 41 Action News at 6:30 PM. If you have never seen the show, try to watch it this evening or any night at 6:30 PM. I think it is a great show where contestants skype in and play the game. The questions are Family Feud type questions. Hopefully I am not the first one off the show today.
Have a great day! We will hopefully be continuing this discussion of this potential change in the weather pattern for later next week in the coming days. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.