Good afternoon bloggers,
It is almost 80 degrees at noon. A very rare May weather set-up is developing in the next 24 to 72 hours and the models have been all over the place, except for one. The GFS model has been very consistent in forming an upper low just west and southwest of Kansas City and dropping it southward keeping us in the circulation of this developing storm for days. Now, this is still evolving, and the GFS model may still be wrong. But, the other models have come into line with this mornings GFS model. Let’s take a look:
This morning’s GFS model is more consistent with it’s previous runs and continues to develop an upper low west and southwest of Kansas City Thursday into Friday and then drop it southeast towards Arkansas. This next map, below, is this mornings Canadian model which now has it’s own version of this storm. It now also is closing off the upper low west of Kansas City and drifts it right towards us by Saturday morning:
Both of these solutions would bring a very strong, possibly record breaking May cold front through KC Wednesday night and then bands of rain, thunderstorms, and possibly some winter types of precipitation as well into central and eastern Kansas, extending into western Missouri Thursday and Friday. The GFS solution keeps us in the circulation for days and the rain just keeps adding up with flooding likely in spots, especially near the Mississippi River as you can see the precipitation forecast below. Look at the rainfall along the Mississippi River:
By the time I am on the air at 4 and 5 PM this evening we will have another model run to look at. Everyone’s favorite model (not mine), has not been consistent at all with this storm. Last night had the upper low, like the NAM way to our north, and this is still a possibility. But, with the blocking forming to the east I am expecting the models to come more in line with the GFS model. The ECMWF model will be out around 2 PM this afternoon. We will go over all of the details beginning at 4 PM this afternoon.
Meet our new 6 PM news anchor Jadiann Thompson tonight. Here is a picture from last nights debut:
Have a great day.