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Computer models agreeing more with the GFS

Good afternoon bloggers,

It is almost 80 degrees at noon.  A very rare May weather set-up is developing in the next 24 to 72 hours and the models have been all over the place, except for one. The GFS model has been very consistent in forming an upper low just west and southwest of Kansas City and dropping it southward keeping us in the circulation of this developing storm for days. Now, this is still evolving, and the GFS model may still be wrong. But, the other models have come into line with this mornings GFS model. Let’s take a look:

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This morning’s GFS model is more consistent with it’s previous runs and continues to develop an upper low west and southwest of Kansas City Thursday into Friday and then drop it southeast towards Arkansas.  This next map, below, is this mornings Canadian model which now has it’s own version of this storm. It now also is closing off the upper low west of Kansas City and drifts it right towards us by Saturday morning:

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Both of these solutions would bring a very strong, possibly record breaking May cold front through KC Wednesday night and then bands of rain, thunderstorms, and possibly some winter types of precipitation as well into central and eastern Kansas, extending into western Missouri Thursday and Friday.  The GFS solution keeps us in the circulation for days and the rain just keeps adding up with flooding likely in spots, especially near the Mississippi River as you can see the precipitation forecast below.  Look at the rainfall along the Mississippi River:

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By the time I am on the air at 4 and 5 PM this evening we will have another model run to look at. Everyone’s favorite model (not mine), has not been consistent at all with this storm. Last night had the upper low, like the NAM way to our north, and this is still a possibility.  But, with the blocking forming to the east I am expecting the models to come more in line with the GFS model. The ECMWF model will be out around 2 PM this afternoon.  We will go over all of the details beginning at 4 PM this afternoon.

Meet our new 6 PM news anchor Jadiann Thompson tonight. Here is a picture from last nights debut:

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Have a great day.

Gary

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34 comments to Computer models agreeing more with the GFS

  • better_than_you

    Wow, don’t know if anyone is looking at the set up for May 20-22, but if this holds up, it seems like we are going to have the biggest outbreak of tornadic weather in Kansas City’s history. Fun times!

  • Hockeynut69

    Those poor folks along the Mississippi can’t catch a break. They will continue to have some serious flooding.

    I can see why all the guys are smiling in that photo. Very pretty lady. Didn’t get to see the evening news last night so will have to tune in tonight. Of course mainly for your latest forecast on the upcoming weather system :)

  • f00dl3

    Amazing how things change. Just 5 months ago it seems they were talking about digging the Mississippi deeper so barges could get through. Now they are talking about flooding.

  • redavis

    Gary: is the accumulating snow potential still there for the Western half of the state like the GFS & NAM at times were showing?? Could it snow in central MO near Columbia?? Thanks

  • Drought Miser

    Gary,
    Any possibility of this eastern precipitation totals shifting a bit west so Kansas can start to twiddle away at there drought? Also can this be classified as another winterstorm of 2012-2013 if we see snowflakes, or is it just a cold cut-off Low?

  • R-Dub

    Looks to me like the GFS is too warm for snow around KC. 0C line at 850mb never gets here, neither does the 540 line. And never gets below 32 at the surface either. Just cold miserable rain.

  • better_than_you

    Oh, I really wasn’t basing it on anything, my friend Mark is a meteorologist for WIAT in Alabama and he was showing me some models that he said had an “eerily” similar setup to what happened down there a couple years back. I really didn’t understand it, haha. He’s not 100% on the timing though, could be a couple days off in either direction. Is this not what’s showing up here?

  • Gary any chance you can go into what your thinking is for the holiday weekend in May? The 2020 site says stormy with severe storms possible but it hasn’t been updated. Thanks

  • f00dl3

    Models are still all over the place right now. GFS has the snow all west and doesn’t get the snow here, while NAM overshoots us to the east and has us dipping to near freezing Friday morning. Canadian has this thing up near the MO/IA border.

  • R-Dub

    NAM has been too cold with this thing all the way along. I’ve seen it mentioned in a couple different forecast discussions.

  • f00dl3

    I think we will see a few flakes that’s it.

  • NCSUguy77

    Latest GFS now shows 6+ for KC area..

  • mattmaisch

    Here’s the map. (GFS) Boy oh boy.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013043018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096″

  • R-Dub

    Accumulating 6″ seems like a neat trick considering the surface temps never drop below freezing….and the ground has been warmed by days of 80+. Time to toss those snow algorithms out the window as they were obviously not developed for this kind of scenario…

  • PILOT MISER

    I agree Rdub. The models saying accumulating snow are not accounting for arrival of cold temps. I believe we will see some flakes and maybe some periods of what could be called snowfall but accumulating to 3-6 inches would be a new ice age. Cold wet windy days. Don’t mind the rain but the cold can beat a hasty retreat.

  • smiley10

    Ugh, now that it is May, I consider snow to be a four-letter word! Please let this be our last dive into cold weather for several months!

  • mukustink

    On the home page there is always the “forecast” as one of the headlines and it always has 1 comment under it. There is never a comment though as you can’t leave a comment on the weather. Is this just a marketing type of thing so people click on it thinking there is a comment there? Just something I’ve noticed and was curious about.

  • Supercell

    I’m all for snow in winter, but we do not want 3-6″ of snow on May 3 for this reason: If it snows hard enough and the temps are 33-35 or even maybe 36, the heavy wet snow will accumulate on leafy branches which will cause a MAJOR problem with breaking branches. An inch or two won’t be a problem, but 3-6″ at this time of year will wreak havoc on our trees.

  • mukustink

    Hey Gary the Blues are rocking aginst the Kings. I hope we keep it up for the next 2 and the rest of the series. We owe the Kings payback from last year. :)

  • stjoeattorney

    I remember back 1972,73 or 74 we had snow fly in May up here, man it was odd. It did not stick. I thought 23 April was going out there 2 May would be HISTORIC if it accums.

  • mukustink

    Well I don’t think it’s going to snow. I say this because I see no maps from Champs or Rick so no snow ;)

    • RickMckc

      Aw, nice to know you missed me. :)

      Here’s the NAM:

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013050100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

      Looks a bit like the GFS from 18z in the almost N-S orientation of the main snow band, but a bit further east of KC.

      Fascinating to even be talking about snow in May. Gotta love KC weather!

  • stormchaser

    Thinking back on recent years past at roughly this same time of year, I recall a few with a cutoff low similar to this approaching weekend. Does anyone else see this possible “first week of May pattern?”

  • McCabe58

    Lol… Come on guys, it’s not going to snow. Not even one flake here in the metro. Aren’t we all ready for spring to show up and stay?? I know these 80 degree days have been awesome.

    • I agree! These last two days have been so nice. The potential for a snowflake is very low. I think the upper low will form farther west and the coldest air will most likely end up too far west. We are more likely to have a tremendous rain event.