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Complex Weather Pattern

Good Tuesday,

We are tracking several weather features the next 4-5 days.  The chance of thunderstorms, heavy rain and severe weather depends on the timing and placement of these features.  So, let’s go through this crazy weather.

First, we have had showers and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa as a cold front is moving east up there.  Some of the showers and thunderstorms have made into northern Missouri.

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TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING: The cold front from today will stall in northern Missouri, before heading north as a warm front.  Thunderstorms will be likely later tonight and early Wednesday along and north of this warm front.  This puts the best chance of rain across Iowa and far northern Missouri, north of KC.  These thunderstorms will contain very heavy rain and possibly some larger hail.  If you are headed to the Royals game tonight the weather looks great,  with temperatures in the 60s.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Our region will be windy, warm and humid with highs 80°-85°.  The best severe threat will be along the warm front and northeast of the surface low near Omaha.  We will also be watching a cold front merging with a dry line in central Kansas.  This is where thunderstorms may form tomorrow evening and affect us later tomorrow night.  So, it looks like it will be dry for the Royals game tomorrow night, but that being said anytime after 10 PM there is a chance of thunderstorms.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Our best chance of thunderstorms will be from 10 PM to 3 AM tomorrow night as the cold front moves by.  Some of these thunderstorms may contain quarter sized hail and wind gusts over 50-60 mph.  However, the later these arrive, the less chance they are severe as the heat of the day fades away.  Also, it is still a question on how solid this line will become in the first place.

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THURSDAY: This will be a dry and cooler day with highs in the 60s.  We will see morning clouds, then afternoon sun.  The cold front from Wednesday night is stalling as the next storm approaches from the west.

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FRIDAY:  The new storm system will be approaching as a new “triple point” forms in the southern Plains.  The “triple point” is where the cold front, warm front and dry line meet.  This is where we look for the greatest severe weather threat.  This next storm will track south, keeping eastern Kansas and western Missouri in the cold air, so we will not have to deal with any severe weather.  We would have a cold and windy rain.  Now, the 12Z GFS and the ECMWF have trended so far south with this storm that most of the rain stays south of KC.  This is four days away and there will be many new solutions.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

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