Cold yes! Snow? Not likely!

Good morning,

       Yes it is going to turn very cold and blustery by Sunday afternoon, but if you were hoping for snow, you can put the snow shovels away.  It doesn’t look like anything more than maybe a few snow flurries Sunday afternoon, if that.  Just like other storms this fall, this one will pass to our north and really won’t develop until its east of Kansas City.  So here we go again, missing out on much needed moisture.

   I will try and prove my point by showing and comparing the 6z NAM & the 6z GFS.  While there are differences, the two models, essentially show the same thing.  The moisture outruns the cold air and the chance for accumulating snow in Kansas City is next to zero.

Lets start with the NAM, effective 6AM Sunday morning.

     But Sunday morning, the cold front has blown through Kansas City, Joplin & Springfield.  The 540-thickness line, denoted by the dashed black line is just north of KC at this time.  The 540 line is typically the line that separates rain from snow.  North of the dashed line there is a snowstorm in eastern Iowa and some light snow in extreme northwest Missouri.   At this time, I think that area will remain north of KC or fall apart as we move later into Sunday morning.  South of the dashed line on the 6z NAM there is perhaps an area of drizzle or just a few sprinkles.

   This model is faster than the GFS and has the cold front marching through here Saturday night and even offers a chance for a thunderstorm.

    Now onto the 6z GFS, also valid for 6AM Sunday morning.

     This model has a surface farther south, the area of snow is farther north and we are still above freezing Sunday morning waiting for the cold blast.  The 540 line is also farther north.  In either case, it appears any precipitation around Kansas City is very light. 

     If you go back and look at both models again, you notice a very large & strong area of high pressure over eastern Montana.  This is going to build south Sunday night setting us up for the coldest morning so far this Autumn.  If skies become clear Sunday night then Monday morning we may be in the lower teens. 

   That is it for now.  Jeff Penner is back in for Gary again tonight.  Gary will be back in time for the Santa Cause.  Our annual toy drive for the Marine Corps’ Toys for Tots program.  Gary & I will be at the Walmart at 135th & stateline Saturday morning.  Gary & Stormy will be there from 9 to 11th.  I’ll be there at 11am.

Have a great day!



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31 comments to Cold yes! Snow? Not likely!

  • Ziggy

    I wouldn’t dismiss the Canadian model as it fits the LRC a little better than the GFS

  • restull

    Another tough pill to swallow. Anyways, it might put more people in the mood to shop.

  • hobart

    I don’t know why I keep checking the forecast. All one needs to know is that for the next 10 to 12 months, it will be dry. Sometimes it’ll be colder and sometimes it’ll be warmer. But, it will always be dry. There you have it. The most accurate forecast.

  • Ziggy

    Your right on the Precip, I was just looking at the position of the storm compared to the first time through

  • yewtrees

    Brett. Thanks for today’s blog. It was very well-written and easy to understand your interpretation of data. Unfortunately, the drought lives on…!

  • mukustink

    The drought goes marching on and on and on and on… Dont your feet get cold in the winter time? The sky won’t snow and the sun won’t shine!

  • Hockeynut69

    I throw this question out since it has been communicated on here many times about how the weather pattern is “changing” (mainly from GL). But how exactly is this pattern any different than what we have experienced the last 8 months. The end result appears to be the same that it stays to the north, skips by us then intensifies to the east and southeast. Again it feels like Groundhog Day!

  • Ziggy

    The dry patterns keep coming, but I have a feeling we may get some much needed precip on sunday and sunday night

  • rred95

    It appears this “new” pattern has less precip than last years pattern. We might indeed break our lowest snowfall record from last year.

  • Conspiracy theory;#1: Sense KSHB has hired there new GM,Gary,s gone missing….Nancy Drew(Miky),where are you?????????

    • StormyWX

      Yeah, Gary’s taken A LOT of time off. I don’t even remember the last time George took a day off, much less Brett…

      And yeah I noticed that too…it seems as if after he was announced, a ton of people took vacation days…

  • f00dl3

    I wonder if the winters of 2008/09, 09/10, 10/11 loaded us up on snow to prepare us for the lack of snow we would get in 11/12, and from what it looks like, 12/13.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    If I’m jeff Penner, I would be worried that my days are numbered. And Yes, the GM isn’t a big lezak fan. Wouldn’t be surprised if he Bumps Lezak back down to Weekends or Weekday Mornings and have Brett become Chief or take Lisa Teachmen and have her become chief.

    • StormyWX

      …how could you POSSIBLY come down to this conclusion? What you’re theorizing is him essentially FIRING the ENTIRE weather team.

      Plus, George or someone said last week that they think Gary’s vacation was “a planned vacation,” which implies that he scheduled a long time ago to be gone for over a week.

      I personally just think it’s a big coincidence that three or four of their on-air personalities started to take week+ long vacations right as their new boss was announced.

  • Theo

    Brian Bracco is going to clean house, if people don’t want to step up to the challenge of beating Channel 9. He wants to kick Hearst’s butt.

    But I digress. Mike, where’s the shovel-snow event you guaranteed? You only missed by 400 miles.

    Warm & dry continues next week, as predicted.

    • mukustink

      You know Mikey is only on here blowing his own horn when he guesses correctly. When he is wrong he is nowhere to be found! He is just a lawn jockey with a low iq.

      • mowermike

        Kind of like when I ask you to show up and talk the same talk in person…you go missing…that’s the bigger story. You know you got nothing that’s why you do what you do on here…. I’m willing to prove everything, guys like you never show.

        Have fun feeling big on here..we all know what the real life product is

  • Emaw

    So the new sheriff in town is a hardass huh. Maybe he does’nt like snow. Kumke, where do you get your info?

    • Weatherman Kumke

      I have my sources. But lets just say the new GM isnt a Lezak fan. Say goodbye to the upper 500 maps and crappy graphics. Brian Bracco knows how to be successful, He made Channel 9 with Godfree the best news station in town. He has Hearst’s Playbook.

  • kellyinkc

    interesting discussion. Has anyone else here seen Robins? I have seen several weird.

  • mukustink

    The first thing to go will be that horrible 10 am show with dumb and dumber. That thing is a train wreck.

    Gary has interest in the Las Vegas market and has applied at the ABC affiliate out there as well. Who knows he may ne on the move.

  • R-Dub

    Wow, this is like reading a college sports blog with all the coaching changes and conference realignment. “so and so is going to go to Tennessee” “state u and tech have applied to join the big 10″ etc. guess that’s what happens when the weather is so dull.

  • Emaw

    It’s quite entertaining at times.

  • I think it’s worse, it’s becoming like a hs girls Instagram feed…(would know, as I have a Freshmen daughter) Seriously, do we need the petty constant attacks? I’ve watched many good bloggers go away, from the constant immature attacks. And now we have rumor posts about staffing of the mets??? Seriously? These guys don’t have to provide this blog, and if I was them, I sure wouldn’t, with the latest high school BS going on. Not to mention the likely dual identity bloggers! I know it’s been a slow weather year, but there is no need for this!

    • chopperHD

      Scott…couldn’t have stated it any better! It is the same few lifeless jerks that troll on here and attack and gossip like a couple of high school girls.

      I like Mikes response, the few who launch attacks, would never have the guts to do it in person.

      Hope we get some exciting weather sooner rather than later.

  • Emaw

    I have a weather question. What day next week will the word snow be mentioned in the forecast for the following week?