Yes it is going to turn very cold and blustery by Sunday afternoon, but if you were hoping for snow, you can put the snow shovels away. It doesn’t look like anything more than maybe a few snow flurries Sunday afternoon, if that. Just like other storms this fall, this one will pass to our north and really won’t develop until its east of Kansas City. So here we go again, missing out on much needed moisture.
I will try and prove my point by showing and comparing the 6z NAM & the 6z GFS. While there are differences, the two models, essentially show the same thing. The moisture outruns the cold air and the chance for accumulating snow in Kansas City is next to zero.
Lets start with the NAM, effective 6AM Sunday morning.
But Sunday morning, the cold front has blown through Kansas City, Joplin & Springfield. The 540-thickness line, denoted by the dashed black line is just north of KC at this time. The 540 line is typically the line that separates rain from snow. North of the dashed line there is a snowstorm in eastern Iowa and some light snow in extreme northwest Missouri. At this time, I think that area will remain north of KC or fall apart as we move later into Sunday morning. South of the dashed line on the 6z NAM there is perhaps an area of drizzle or just a few sprinkles.
This model is faster than the GFS and has the cold front marching through here Saturday night and even offers a chance for a thunderstorm.
Now onto the 6z GFS, also valid for 6AM Sunday morning.
This model has a surface farther south, the area of snow is farther north and we are still above freezing Sunday morning waiting for the cold blast. The 540 line is also farther north. In either case, it appears any precipitation around Kansas City is very light.
If you go back and look at both models again, you notice a very large & strong area of high pressure over eastern Montana. This is going to build south Sunday night setting us up for the coldest morning so far this Autumn. If skies become clear Sunday night then Monday morning we may be in the lower teens.
That is it for now. Jeff Penner is back in for Gary again tonight. Gary will be back in time for the Santa Cause. Our annual toy drive for the Marine Corps’ Toys for Tots program. Gary & I will be at the Walmart at 135th & stateline Saturday morning. Gary & Stormy will be there from 9 to 11th. I’ll be there at 11am.
Have a great day!