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Cold Blast Arrives, Warming Trend Begins Tuesday

Good morning bloggers,

A cold front moved through overnight and temperatures have dropped to near freezing this morning.  This will be a dry front with sunshine coming out with highs in the middle 40s this afternoon.  The Royals open their season today in Chicago against the White Sox.  It will be cold and windy in the “windy” city.  What will it be like a week from today when the Royals have their home opener? A stormy weather pattern will likely be setting up.

The weather pattern may be setting up into a rather wet one across the United States during the next week.  Here is the total precipitation forecast from the 06z GFS model ending next Monday night:

1

Kansas City is in one of the lower amounts with a 1 to 2 inch forecast. Most of this comes in from later in the weekend into early next week.  We will go into more detail soon, but it looks like we will be getting more help with the drought. Last year it dried out in April and May.  We will have our severe weather calendar and a look into spring on Thursday night at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News.

Have a great day!

Gary

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21 comments to Cold Blast Arrives, Warming Trend Begins Tuesday

  • rjsciurus

    I like the fact that now, “cold blast” only means “near freezing”. Bring on Spring and Baseball!!!

  • Skylar

    The 00z for the next 16 days was very wet, especially just to the south.

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif”

  • blue8091

    Is it just me or is that little green dot near KC on the graphic looking all too familiar?! There we are in a bubble while it pours all around us! I’m ready to get warmer!

  • I have a few hrs of AWP on Tivo to always remember it :(

    Spring can come now.

  • Theo

    Don’t let the facts get in your way when talking about the drought. Many on here would have you believe it is nearly over, if not over already.

    FACTS:

    KCI had 1.95 inches of precip in March. That’s below normal again (11 of the 12 prior months have been below average). Still over 19 inches below normal for the last 12 months.

    JOCO Executive had 1.29 inches of precip in March. That’s below normal again (9 of the 12 prior months have been below average). Still over 14 inches below normal for the last 12 months.

    Yeah, drought’s over all right. Facts beat no facts.

    • mowermike

      Theo,

      Nobody has said the drought is over except a few that no nothing about it. Many have mentioned,(including myself)that the drought has eased. That is certainly a fact. 8 months ago KC was in a D4 drought headline, now, just a D1.(fact) Sub soil moisture is way better now then 8-10 months ago.(fact) So, the facts are that the drought is much better and most have said that should this pattern continue, we’ll be out of the drought soon. Big IF!!!

      Your reasoning of making up 19 inches of rain to end the drought is just not true.

      In my line of work, my staff deals with soil every day. I can promise you the soil is 20x better then at any one time after May 1st last year. So, the fact is that the drought isn’t over,(nobody is arguing that) but it certainly better. Can we easily go right back into an extreme drought, sure we can, we’ll see though.

      I predicted the drought to ease over the winter(per my winter forecast) and I’m telling you that it won’t be a problem this year.

      In Summary, yes, the drought is not over, but it’s much better from where it was just 8 months ago. That is a fact!!!!!!

      Is that enough facts???

      Get ready for a wet Spring!!! This will end up being a fact later on.

    • Dobber

      It’s over Todd. We may not have replenished all the moisture lost but this year will be average to above average precipitation wise. Care to make a friendly wager?

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser says droughts over soil moisture way up compared to this time last year when March scorched the earth !!

  • PILOT MISER

    Theo it is not just about total rainfall to determine drought conditions. Take for instance that experiment Gary did with the snow in the cyclinder and then let it melt. Tht was a ton of moisture. The soil wetness is essential. And rainfall is an important part to keep subsoil wet and ponds filled. Te ponds in my way to work are beginning to fill and if we are able to have rainfall continue this month we will be climbing out of the drought.

  • mowermike

    Pilot,

    Very true, the amount of snow melt that this region had over the last 40 days was the best possible way to get our subsoil moisture back to workable levels. Had we had 10 inches of rain that 40 day stretch, most would have ran off the soils and filled ponds/lakes.(so, not all bad) However, it wouldn’t have been as good as the 30 inches of snow that melted right into the soil at a slow pace.

    More facts…

  • OlatheMatt

    Since golf season is coming in, where is the best place in the metro to get a set of new custom sized clubs, and beginners lessons?

  • j-ox

    This time a year ago we were coming out of above avg precipitation for Feb & Mar…THEN it went dry in Apr.

    May was better than Apr, but THEN Jun through the end of Aug was dry/Dry/DRY.

    Not that I feel responsible, but I figured it would take a hurricane in the gulf to come straight North to possibly break us out of that pattern. Well Isaac came along Aug 31/Sept 1 = 6.5″ in JoCo, but only 1.5″ here in Lawrence…but we were grateful.

  • FARMERMIKE

    MOWER
    WILL NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SEE THIS WET SPRING YOUR TALKIN ABOUT. WE GOT SHORT CHANGED ON THEM LAST GOOD SNOWS THAT WAS EAST & SOUTH OF HERE. I WORKED A FIELD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SPRING PLANTING TOPSOIL MOISTURE ABOUT 2″ DOWN. FROM THERE DOWN NOT LOOKING GOOD. MOST PONDS AROUND HERE ARE DRY OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WE NEED RAIN HERE SLOW SOAKERS THEN A GOOD OLE TOAD STRANGLER……

  • PILOT MISER

    Farmer, central and north kansas are hurting and based off current patterns and drought conditions y’all are going to be worse off than eastern kansas. Predictions are for western kansas, Colorado to remain in severe drought from manhattan to the east it looks pretty good. It will take a few more than just te odd storm to help y’all out.

  • Drought Miser

    Major storms coming our way first weekend in May twisters galore weather channel chasers will by a house here they’ll be here so much head for the basements!

  • Skylar

    This was the actual 06z GFS…

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif”

    On the upside, through the next two weeks, almost every single run has had 2-4″ of rain for the area, which is at worst average for the area.

  • Skylar

    This was the actual 06z GFS…

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif”

    On the upside, through the next two weeks, almost every single run has had 2-4″ of rain for the area, which is at worst average precipitation.

  • PILOT MISER

    And here we go 0-1. Some will blame the weather for the silent bats. But c’mon it was the white sox.

  • luvsno

    This is from the Olathe newsletter today concerning the drought here…(Olathe e-News)

    Drought Continues Despite Record Snowfall
    Late winter snowstorms dumped record amounts of snow on Olathe and the metro area. The over two feet of snow in February and March is equivalent to average snowfall for the area experienced during a typical five month period.

    As a general rule of thumb, ten to 12 inches of snowfall equals approximately one inch of rain. Even with record snowfall amounts, this liquid-rich snow produced the equivalent of only 2.503 inches of moisture. To make up the gap in snowfall, we would need to receive 130 to 156 inches of snow in this area.

    While the snow meltdown is beginning to refill retention ponds, streams and rivers, the overall impact on the long-term drought remains minimal. Olathe is over 13 inches below average for rainfall since April 2012 based on the latest drought monitor data. As a result, we remain in a moderate drought status. With the weather getting warmer and landscapes getting greener, it is still critical to remember Wise Outdoor Watering (W.O.W.) practices. Think W.O.W. to minimize water waste, increase water conservation and help manage our resources.

    For more details on the current updates and drought data in your area, please visit the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office -Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=drought

  • luvsno

    I posted over an hour ago at around 9:20, and it is still waiting moderation ?? From the looks of things there might be a backlog of posts waiting for moderation….or it is just a very slow Monday night. April Fools night. The last post showing it Pilot Miser at 6:10 pm. It is now 10:45.

    Good night all.

  • luvsno

    Ok, I have decided to go ahead and repost mine from 9pm..as it is still not in here….still waiting moderation. There is nothing “against the rules” in it so I don’t know what could be holding it up, except that there is a link in it for noaa about the drought. Someplace on here I think somebody said to put quotation marks on both ends of links…so that is what I will do with it this time…hope it works.

    This is from the Olathe newsletter today concerning the drought here…(Olathe e-News)

    Drought Continues Despite Record Snowfall
    Late winter snowstorms dumped record amounts of snow on Olathe and the metro area. The over two feet of snow in February and March is equivalent to average snowfall for the area experienced during a typical five month period.

    As a general rule of thumb, ten to 12 inches of snowfall equals approximately one inch of rain. Even with record snowfall amounts, this liquid-rich snow produced the equivalent of only 2.503 inches of moisture. To make up the gap in snowfall, we would need to receive 130 to 156 inches of snow in this area.

    While the snow meltdown is beginning to refill retention ponds, streams and rivers, the overall impact on the long-term drought remains minimal. Olathe is over 13 inches below average for rainfall since April 2012 based on the latest drought monitor data. As a result, we remain in a moderate drought status. With the weather getting warmer and landscapes getting greener, it is still critical to remember Wise Outdoor Watering (W.O.W.) practices. Think W.O.W. to minimize water waste, increase water conservation and help manage our resources.

    For more details on the current updates and drought data in your area, please visit the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office -Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO at “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=drought”