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Change Around the Corner

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are in for yet another day of hot and humid very early Fall weather as much cooler and wet conditions are ongoing in the western Plains.  Let’s go through the change in weather and we will have an update on Maria.

This a pretty interesting Sunday morning satellite picture as we see Maria east of the Bahamas, snow in northern Utah and a band of rain and thunderstorms from Mexico to Canada in the western Plains.  We are in a clear, warm and humid  zone.

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The band of rain is associated with a storm system in the Rockies and stalled front.  Temperatures are in the 40s and 50s with the rain.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The front will remain stalled with the 40s and 50s across western Nebraska and the 80s to near 90 to the east.  The front will finally start moving tonight.

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MONDAY MORNING: The front will be approaching Omaha and the showers and thunderstorms will be along and behind the front.  So, it looks like a dry Monday morning rush hour in KC (A brief shower is possible.).  Lows will be in the 60s to low 70s.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be edging into far northwest Missouri.  Highs in our area will be in the 80s once again with high humidity and more clouds, so it will be a few degrees cooler.  There may be a few showers and thunderstorms around, but the main activity will stay along and behind the front where the better southwest flow of disturbances is located.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: The front will progress southeast, but the rain and thunderstorms will mostly stay to the west and northwest, where again the better southwest flow of disturbances is located. Now, that being said, there will be some showers and thunderstorms along I-35 with the front.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be progressing steadily southeast and our area will begin to get in to the cooler air.  It will be cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  You can see the rain area is smaller as the energy aloft takes off to the north, away from the front.  So, the rain will not be as beneficial along and east of I-35.

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TUESDAY NIGHT: The front will be moving away and most of the rain will be dissipated as the clouds remain. So, whether we see some good rain or not, cooler and less humid air will be flowing in.  Highs Wednesday through Saturday will be mostly 70 to 75 with lows 47 to 55.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY: This is just one run of data, but you can get the picture.  1″ to 3″ of rain is possible from Topeka, KS to Maryville, MO west.  Locations to the east will see .05″ to 25″.  Now, this is not set in stone as the rain may shift east faster or slower.  If you need to fertilize or have grass seed down you may need the sprinklers along and east of I-35 as this is the one rain chance for the next 7 days.

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TROPICAL UPDATE:

As of early Sunday morning Maria was a category 2 with 110 mph winds, moving north at 9 PM, east of the Bahamas.

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Maria will continue north and slowly weaken to become a category 1. She will come quite close to Cape Hatteras , NC Tuesday and Wednesday.  We will have to watch this closely.  Whether she moves in to the outer banks of North Carolina or not, she will race out to sea at the end of the week.

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Is there anything else lurking in the Atlantic that we need to worry about?  Lee has become a category 1 hurricane, but he will stay out in the middle of nowhere.  There are more disturbances coming off of Africa, but there is nothing imminent.  Hurricane season ends November 30th, so we are not done with this crazy tropical season, but it will be nice to have a break.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

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