Now to Storm #2

Good Sunday bloggers,

Storm #1 produced 1″ to 3″ of rain across the area. Scattered showers will end this morning, leading to a decent afternoon. The next storm arrives Monday evening and exits Tuesday evening and we are now in a Flash Flood Watch for this storm.

The next storm is now bringing an unseasonable amount of rain and snow to California. Downtown Los Angeles has already seen over .50″ from the last storm and this storm. They average around .25″ for the whole month of May. The storm system will drop into the southwest USA tonight and it will induce deep tropical air to surge north into the Plains over a large cool air mass. This will create widespread very heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.

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Here is a large Flash Flood Watch that is in effect Monday evening through Tuesday evening. It extends from Dodge City to Omaha to Kirksville.

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There is a moderate to most likely high risk for severe weather later Monday from western Oklahoma to southwest Texas. We are on the northeast edge of the severe threat as we will be in the cool air. Some larger hail is possible later tomorrow night around here.

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SUNDAY: It will be a nice afternoon with highs in the 60s. The EOI (Eat Outside Index) will be near a 10 this evening as the wind will be 5-15 mph from the west and northwest along with abundant sunshine. The cold front that moves through this morning will be stalling across far south and west Texas.

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MONDAY MORNING: We will be dry with lows in the low to mid 40s as deep tropical moisture surges north over the large cool air mass sitting over the Plains. This will create a very large area of rain and thunderstorms from northeast Colorado to southwest Texas.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The large area of rain and thunderstorms will enter eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. We will see highs in the 50s to low 60s. A severe weather outbreak will be taking place from western Oklahoma to southwest Texas in between the warm front and dry line.

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MONDAY NIGHT: There will be a zone of tremendous rain and thunderstorms from eastern Kansas to northern Missouri as the warm front gets closer. Right now it looks like the I-35 corridor is the target.  This could still shift west or east up to 100 miles. In the tremendous zone flash flooding WILL be a problem. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”  Also, some thunderstorms may contain large hail in any location. Temperatures will hold in the 50s to near 60°.

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TUESDAY: This is going to be a weird weather day as the strong storm in the southwest USA lifts northeast very intensely across the Plains. The big thunderstorms from Monday night will lift into Iowa and Nebraska. There may be a brief break as the warm front surges through. As the warm front is surging through, a cold front will be catching up with a rapidly moving dry line. This will create a narrow warm sector over our area during the middle of the day. A new line of thunderstorms will be found on the dry line/cold front. They will likely be heavy, but what about severe? That will depend on how warm the warm sector becomes. There will not be much time for warming. Now, locations to the east may be a different story. Highs may reach the low to mid 70s briefly with 50s before and after.

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ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: 4″ to 10″ of rain is likely and the zone of heaviest rain tomorrow night will play a role in who sees the most the next 10 days. Now, the events Wednesday night into the weekend could bring some insane totals as well. So, 4″ to 10″ may be underdone!

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It is not just the rain around here, but a decent amount of rain is possible over the Missouri and Mississippi river basins. So, we will be watching the flash and river flooding potential the next several days and weeks.

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In summary, we have seen around 2″ of rain, officially, so far at KCI. It will be dry this afternoon through Monday afternoon ahead of storm system #2.

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Have a great week, stay safe and watch for flowing water.

Jeff Penner

Active Weather Pattern, Day 1

Good Saturday bloggers,

The active weather pattern we have been talking about has arrived. This is day 1 of about 10-14 where we will see rain and thunderstorms. Flooding is going to be our biggest issue.

The severe thunderstorms in the western Plains Friday evolved into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, cluster of rain and thunderstorms) then moved into eastern Kansas and western Missouri this morning. This area is weakening, however, a rapidly increasing area of rain and thunderstorms with a series of waves was travelling up I-35 from Oklahoma and Texas early Saturday. This area and the one already in the region will join forces bringing our region many rounds of rain and thunderstorms through the day. The severe threat is low as the morning rain is keeping temperatures down.

This is a fascinating set up as our thunderstorms move east and weaken, but are about to be joined and energized by a series of thunderstorm producing disturbances from the south.

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SATURDAY 12-6 PM: This is when we have the best chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms. Very heavy downpours will be occurring with the chance of some strong winds and large hail. The severe threat looks low at this time due to cooler air being caused by the morning clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s.

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SATURDAY 6-9 PM: This is when we have the best chance for a break in the rain as the disturbances from Oklahoma and Texas move north. The main storm will be rapidly approaching at this time, so that is why it is tough to say how long the break will last.

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SATURDAY 9 PM-SUNDAY 5 AM: More rounds  of rain and thunderstorms will be likely as the main storm moves by. Much cooler air will be moving in from the northwest.

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SUNDAY: Showers will linger until 7-9 AM, then the rest of the day will be mostly cloudy, dry and cooler with highs in the 60s. The sun should peek out during the afternoon, making for some nice weather. The cold front that sweeps through later tonight will turn into a warm front across the southwest Plains.

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MONDAY: It will be a mostly dry and cool day with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. The warm front in the southwest Plains Sunday will be surging north as a strong storm system drops into the southwest USA. This will generate many areas of rain and thunderstorms with very heavy downpours. The severe threat will be low as it will be too cool, but the flooding threat will be high. Oklahoma and Texas will have the best chance of severe weather.

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MONDAY NIGHT: There will be waves of rain and very heavy thunderstorms. Flash flooding is looking like a problem as several inches of rain are possible.

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TUESDAY: The warm front will move by as a dry line pushes out into central Kansas. This may generate a line of thunderstorms. Normally, I would say this will be severe, but the temperatures may not be warm enough due to all of the rain and thunderstorms from the morning. We will need to watch this closely.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: There will easily be 5″ to 10″ of rain for most locations. Some will see 10″ to 15″. This data has the heaviest located over southeast Kansas. But, that could end up just about anywhere.

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In summary we are going to have many rounds of rain and thunderstorms the next 10 days. The first storm is for today and tonight, the second is for Monday night and Tuesday, followed by many others.  Flash and river flooding will likely be issues. There will be severe weather risks as well., but it looks like flooding is going to be the main problem for us. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

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Stay safe and have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

A Series Of Wet Storm Systems Is Developing

Good morning bloggers,

An extreme weather event is possible in the next two weeks.  A major flooding event is likely going to materialize over the plains states, and Kansas City is a potential target.  The weather pattern is evolving into one that will produce multiple chances of heavy thunderstorms.  There will likely be a zone that gets hit by each of these storm systems, and given the time of year and moisture available there is a chance of 4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts from smaller scale convective features that form over the plains.  This forecast map just happened to pop up on my screen during the 6 PM newscast after the new GFS came in showing nearly 15″ of rain near KC, and nearly 10″ near Wichita.  Is this really possible, because if it happens, it will be an extreme weather event that would be record breaking.

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Every model I have seen has at least 4″ to 6″ over the next ten days in this region with a 10″ bullseye.  Here is last night’s GFS model:

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Last night’s 06z GFS model had a 20″ bullseye.  It is something to pay close attention to.  What is causing this set up? The LRC!  The weather pattern that set up last fall was a very wet one in this same area. Remember October when 10″ of rain fell in KC?  This is the same pattern now, and we are getting the late May version of this.

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This upper level, 500 mbar, forecast map shows the flow valid tomorrow night. There is a blocking upper high over central Canada that is influencing the jet stream and helping push it way south.  A storm will be ejecting out across Kansas Saturday night.  A more energetic pattern then sets up for early next week:

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A strong jet stream will be intensifying over the eastern Pacific in response to the blocking over Canada.  There is a lot going on here, and the blocking and resulting flow east of the blocking over Canada will provide the conditions for a strong baroclinic zone (frontal zone or temperature contrast) to be maintained near the Kansas/Missouri region for around a week at least.  And, with the moisture available from the warm Gulf of Mexico, the fuel will be available for flooding and severe weather set ups through Tornado Alley.

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The flow by next Friday weakens a bit, but the blocking upper highs are still a major influence, and this will likely keep the front (baroclinic zone) near Kansas and Missouri which will provide the conditions for the generation of more thunderstorm complexes, severe weather risks, and flooding.

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The set up for Monday has our attention for many reasons, but we also have to monitor Saturday closely.  Here are the risks:

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These are the 1, 2, and 4 day severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.  There is a lot to discuss here, and today’s risk is way out northwest and southwest of KC allowing us a day to breath and analyze.  I need to do my own in-depth analysis and see how Saturday looks as the new data comes in.  We will update you on 41 Action News tonight, and then in the blog comments on Weather2020.com. Join in the conversation over there.

Have a great day! Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Video Blog Today As The Weather Pattern Heats Up

Good morning bloggers,

A very active pattern is continuing across most of the USA.  Today, I will share my thoughts on the video blog, and then on 41 Action News we will go in-depth as we describe this fascinating weather pattern. Just look at one of the precipitation forecasts for the next two weeks:

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  • Four feet of snow is likely in the Sierra, NV in late May, which I am not sure has ever happened before?
  • Look at how wide spread the 2″ plus rainfall totals are. The pink shade shows the 2″ or more totals
  • Kansas City is in the 8″+ range, and the rainfall amounts go all the way

Today’s Video Blog:

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Sunny & Hot.  It will be breezy with southwest winds 15-30 mph.  High:  87° to 90°
  • Tonight:  Clear and staying warm and breezy with south winds 10-20 mph. Low:  65° to 70°
  • Friday:  A few more clouds, very warm, and muggy. South to southwest winds 15-25 mph. High:  87°

We hope you are having fun, learning, and enjoying this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day!

Gary

Tornado Season Has Only One Month Left

Good morning bloggers,

Traditional Tornado Alley has had a very quiet severe weather season thus far, even though there has been no lack of storm systems and rain.  It has just been too cool thus far.  Iowa has yet to have one tornado in 2019.  And, Kansas City has yet to have a Tornado Watch:

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As you can see above, Tornado Alley has been very quiet when it comes to a lot of things so far this season. And, tornado watches have yet to be issued from Kansas City northward in 2019.  There have been a few severe thunderstorm watches as you can see below, in fact tornado alley is more apparent by looking at the severe thunderstorm watches:

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Severe Weather Reports as of today:

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This can and likely will change fast in the next two weeks.  Her is the climatology for tornadoes on May 15th:

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Why would I say tornado season has only one month left?  By June 15th, the average position of the jet stream shifts north, and with it the conditions favorable for tornadoes decreases after around the middle of June and shifts into the northern plains.  There are still occasional chances during the summer months, and there are still severe weather risks. It is just that the frequency and strength of tornadoes usually dramatically falls off as summer begins.

The Developing Pattern:

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The risk of severe weather over the plains will be increasing Friday into Saturday, and then early next week as well.  The day 3 risk, shown above, still has some big questions surrounding it, and then there are two storm systems that will move out over the plains states with risks shifting north and east, and then backing up to the west as the next storm approaches.

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This surface map above shows Friday’s set up, and the map below shows the set up for Saturday.  This set up would once again have rain cooled air affecting the instability near KC. Now, it is still quite undetermined.

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The Monday storm is looking much more impressive:

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There is some blocking going on over Canada and the jet stream is being forced stronger and farther south.  A series of strong storm systems is about to interact with high humidity, the low level fuel for thunderstorms from the Gulf of Mexico, which will lead to some significant severe weather risks.  I still need another day of analyzing before I get too specific.  Storm chasers are likely flocking out to traditional tornado alley as these set ups approach!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We hope you are enjoying the daily conversation!  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog and let’s track these development.

Gary