Rain & Thunderstorms In The Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

There are some big changes taking place in the weather pattern during the next seven to ten days. Suddenly, we have been getting some badly needed rain, although we still need a lot more. There is a pretty good chance that we will have above average rainfall during the next two weeks as we go into the wettest time of the year, and I am expecting a wet second half of May after a drier first half of next month.  So, this second half of April is important for our soil moisture.  Right now, there is a cut-off low, weather person’s woe, spinning around over the four corner states.

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The upper low, as of 1 PM today, will be spinning per the Colorado/New Mexico border.  The main jet stream, as seen above, is tracking across Canada. Look at the dip over western Canada. That is the beginning of a series of waves that will dive southeast and end up picking up the cut-off low:

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Look at what happens to that big upper low. It literally becomes a weak disturbance over southeastern Kansas by Sunday evening. I tracked the upper low over the next 48 hours, and this is what’s left of it by 7 PM Sunday.  There will be a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms as the upper low gets picked up. Rainfall amounts will be likely in the 1/2″ range at the minimum to over 2″ of rain in a few spots between now and Sunday night.

After this goes by, something happens to the pattern that hasn’t quite materialized all year.  Take a look at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation:

NAO April 17

The NAO and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are forecast to into the negative territory by the middle of next week. This will likely be the biggest dip into negative territory all season, since October.  When the AO and NAO go into negative territory it implies that there is a good chance of blocking developing at high latitudes, and look at what is forecast to happen later next week:

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An upper level high height area is forecast to develop over southern Greenland.  This is going to be part of a likely blocking pattern, and a storm will likely get caught diving southeast into the southwestern United States. This pattern will produce some severe weather set-ups later next week, some cold air surging south to near KC, and likely some good chances of heavy rain in our area. Let’s see how it sets up.

Have a great day. Let’s hope there aren’t any showers and thunderstorms this evening. We are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals, and they are back home for a big Friday night game. The first three games had all kinds of weather issues for our team to forecast, and we have another series of weather forecast problems to sort out this weekend. We will be monitoring it closely. You can follow me on twitter and I will provide updates if anything is heading our way. My twitter handle is glezak. It’s FRIDAY!

Gary

A break from the rain, for now

The focal point of our forecast is a finicky area of low pressure that has become stranded in Western Colorado. Perhaps it missed a connecting flight, that’s happened to me before…
I digress.

This is the area in question and as the loop shows, the counterclockwise swirl is easy to spot.
CO Loop
Ah, the ol’ “weatherman’s woe”.

Because of that cutoff low, various little pieces of energy are going to be flung out and head this way.  Combined with a little bit of moisture in place, it could be enough to generate some hit and miss showers in the region over the next couple days.
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Based on the newest information, however, it appears the better chances for rain will stay West of Kansas City for Thursday and most of Friday. That said, by Friday night, the little system will start to wobble out of the Rockies and drift toward KC. This will help to boost our chances for rain.
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As it stands now, I don’t think we’ll have a threat of a rain out for the Royals game Friday night. Could there be a sprinkle or two? Perhaps. The newest indications are that this system will take its sweet time to progress Eastward, so that will delay the timing on rain. Let’s hope it slows down even more, right?

Once we get into Sunday, that thing pulls away and our rain chances fall down again. Between now and then, we should warm up nicely. Especially if we can get enough sunshine on Thursday/Friday.
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Overall, we’re in luck because we’re getting some needed rainfall without severe weather; that’s always a plus.
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I’ll be in again Thursday covering for Gary. Of course, there will be more new information and we’ll fine-tune the forecast as needed.

Enjoy your evening,
-JD

A Small System and a Bigger One

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

We are now tracking two weather systems.  The first is for later tonight and Wednesday.  This is a small one and is now located over Oklahoma.  There are areas of light rain associated with this system.  Tonight and Wednesday this system will be heading north, spreading the thick clouds and showers our way.

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630 AM WEDNESDAY: You can see areas of light rain moving through.  They will be moving from south to north and will likely impact the morning rush hour.  Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

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3 PM WEDNESDAY: The rain will be pretty much over with a leftover thick overcast and highs struggling to reach 60°

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FORECAST TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: As you can see this is a light event with amounts mostly between .05″ to .15″.

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The bigger storm is due in on Friday.  There are many questions with this storm.  Will it last one day or three days?  Will we see much rain at all, as what will the track be? There are many events this weekend, such as the return home of the best team in baseball.  The Royals and A’s play all weekend and the Friday night game may be sold out.  Also, America Ninja Warrior is going on Friday night at Union Station.  The KC film fest is going on this weekend as well.

Since there is much uncertainty at this time, let’s not panic on the ruining of outdoor activities.  The rain could move in Friday and be over by Friday night.  Or, if the storm goes on for three days it will not rain every hour.  So, let’s see what it looks like the next few days.

 

Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff

 

Calmer for a Few Days

Good Monday bloggers,

Wow! Some locations went from needing rain to high water issues during the last 24 hours.  Areas south of the river have seen 1-2″ with some spots around 2.50″.  This is good news as this part of the city has been quite dry.  It did lead to some high water issues at several intersections early this morning.

Ok, what is next?

The rest of today into Tuesday will be dry with many clouds, most of them of the cirrus variety, allowing the sun to shine through them from time to time.

This is being caused by a weak storm system sitting in the southern Plains.  This system will remain there through Tuesday.

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This system will begin a northward track Tuesday night into Wednesday.  It will be rather weak at that time.  So, on Wednesday we will see thicker clouds and areas of light rain and sprinkles. There is another system for the end of the week and weekend.  Most data the last 24 hours slowly tracked this system from the Rockies to Plains to Midwest between Thursday and Sunday, very slow.  This would mean rain and thunderstorm chances around here each of those days.  However, the 6Z GFS brings the system through by Thursday, meaning just one day of rain then nice.  It will take a day or two to figure this out.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Watching for more t-storms tonight

Rain and thunderstorm rattled through the area this morning and now another batch is in the oven, getting ready to cook this way. While severe weather is not expected, a stronger storm or two isn’t totally out of the question.

This is the radar picture as of this evening.
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Notice the activity bubbling in Central Kansas. We’ll have to keep eyes on that and see if it adheres to the guidance. So far, so good. As it stand right now, if you have any plans this evening, you shouldn’t have to worry about rain ruining anything.
Weather Timeline

As you notice, I am expecting activity to move into the area after about 10pm. This is still my latest thinking on overall timing.
T-Storm Timing

Of course, this is still subject to change just a bit. The general theme here is that this still will shake, rattle, and roll its way through the area and be (mostly) gone by daybreak Monday. I am not worried about a wet commute, however, the roads and grass may still be a bit wet as you and kids head out. Something to keep in mind.

As of 7pm, these are the rainfall amounts from the last 24 hours:
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We’ll certainly add to those a bit tonight.

Clouds & sunshine will chase each other through the day Monday and we should wind up not too far from average with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Not much different for Tuesday.

Taking a quick look ahead, the guidance suggests we go right back into the unsettled patterned for the latter half of the week and weekend. The GFS is the more aggressive model right now, painting a picture that includes rain on every day Wednesday through Sunday, except for Thursday.
The Euro model is not as aggressive and keep the rain just on the edge of the coverage area for Thursday. It says any rain Friday is South of I-70 and then paints Saturday mostly dry.
The trend in the last week or so has been for the GFS to get aggressive, only to then fall more in line with the Euro. So I’m going to lean that way a tad for now.

When it comes to temperatures, nothing dramatic in the works. Highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 40s & 50. All in all, somewhat typical for this time of year.

My thanks to Jeff for picking up my slack Saturday, thus having a short turnaround going into this morning. I was at a wedding in Wichita Saturday and was given some interesting looks when I warned them rain would likely be falling by the end of the ceremony. And it was. But I thought rain on a wedding day was actually good luck!

Hope you all have a great evening and if there are any updates to be had, I’ll add them to this blog.
-JD