Good morning bloggers,
There are some big changes taking place in the weather pattern during the next seven to ten days. Suddenly, we have been getting some badly needed rain, although we still need a lot more. There is a pretty good chance that we will have above average rainfall during the next two weeks as we go into the wettest time of the year, and I am expecting a wet second half of May after a drier first half of next month. So, this second half of April is important for our soil moisture. Right now, there is a cut-off low, weather person’s woe, spinning around over the four corner states.
The upper low, as of 1 PM today, will be spinning per the Colorado/New Mexico border. The main jet stream, as seen above, is tracking across Canada. Look at the dip over western Canada. That is the beginning of a series of waves that will dive southeast and end up picking up the cut-off low:
Look at what happens to that big upper low. It literally becomes a weak disturbance over southeastern Kansas by Sunday evening. I tracked the upper low over the next 48 hours, and this is what’s left of it by 7 PM Sunday. There will be a good chance of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms as the upper low gets picked up. Rainfall amounts will be likely in the 1/2″ range at the minimum to over 2″ of rain in a few spots between now and Sunday night.
After this goes by, something happens to the pattern that hasn’t quite materialized all year. Take a look at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation:
The NAO and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are forecast to into the negative territory by the middle of next week. This will likely be the biggest dip into negative territory all season, since October. When the AO and NAO go into negative territory it implies that there is a good chance of blocking developing at high latitudes, and look at what is forecast to happen later next week:
An upper level high height area is forecast to develop over southern Greenland. This is going to be part of a likely blocking pattern, and a storm will likely get caught diving southeast into the southwestern United States. This pattern will produce some severe weather set-ups later next week, some cold air surging south to near KC, and likely some good chances of heavy rain in our area. Let’s see how it sets up.
Have a great day. Let’s hope there aren’t any showers and thunderstorms this evening. We are the official meteorologists for the Kansas City Royals, and they are back home for a big Friday night game. The first three games had all kinds of weather issues for our team to forecast, and we have another series of weather forecast problems to sort out this weekend. We will be monitoring it closely. You can follow me on twitter and I will provide updates if anything is heading our way. My twitter handle is glezak. It’s FRIDAY!