The Next Round Of Thunderstorms

Good morning bloggers,

Tornadoes damaged communities from northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. Carl Junction, MO, just northwest of Joplin,  Here are the storm reports from yesterday:

today

The Kansas City viewing area was pretty much skipped over by the worst of last nights storm, and thank goodness.  Jefferson City has some significant damage from what looks like an EF 3 tornado, and Carl Junction, again just west of Webb City north of Joplin, produced this:

Carl Junction

Today’s risk is back to the west:

day1otlk_1200

This is the week we targeted to be one of the two big weeks for severe weather four months ago, and we are in the middle of it now.  There may be another big week when the “blizzard part of the LRC” cycles back through.  We called it that because of the Kansas City blizzard on November 25th, but that part of the pattern also produce a one foot snowstorm and a 10″ rainfall event in other cycles, and that is still two to three weeks away.  What also happened in that part of the pattern?  Major Hurricane Michael developed and blasted into the Florida Panhandle.  Weather2020 has predicted Michael, Gordon, Florence, and Alberto in the past year, all weeks to months before those storms had a cloud.  And, Harvey, Maria, and Irma the year before.  We will be monitoring closely for a tropical storm in that June 5 to June 15 window.  And, as you know, and I will post it again here because we are sharing something quite special with you over the past few years/  Did you know that the bloggers named the LRC? I just called it my theory back in the early 2000s, and you all named it.  Regardless of what it is named, we are sharing something special. Here again is that forecast for this week:

1Weather App From January 13

I think we can all agree, that this 127 day forecast issued January 13th and posted on the 1Weather App, has verified.  And, the risks keep coming.

2

There is a trough hanging out aloft over the southwestern United States, and a summertime anticyclone, or upper level high height area, centered over the Florida Panhandle.  It will be close to 100 degrees over the southeastern United States this weekend, and there is enough flow over the plains to produce the conditions for more tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.

hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_16

This HRRR model shows the thunderstorms organizing way out west at 10 PM tonight. I lean in this direction, which brings any thunderstorm risk and severe weather threat a bit later tonight.  I still have some more analysis to do.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog there and join in the conversation as we share more of the LRC with you and share in this weather experience.

 

Gary

 

 

PDS Tornado Watch South Of KC

Good evening bloggers,

The SPC has issued a PDS, Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch for areas south of KC. Our region will have an initial risk and then it will shift south and east by 10 PM or so.  Let’s see how this evolves:

1

10

There is a warm front south of KC, which will be the focus. Thunderstorms ignited early, and if they organize fast, then the risk will shift southeast a bit.  We just have to watch this evolve.

11

Let us know what you are experiencing by sharing on the Weather2020 blog.

Gary

Tornadoes In NE Kansas Yesterday & Today’s Enhanced Slight Risk

Good morning bloggers,

The powerful storm that lifted northeast, and got pushed out by a second system dropping into the southwestern states, produced the conditions for a sudden small outbreak of tornadoes in the Kansas City region yesterday.  Take a look at this tornado 1 mile south of Effingham, KS, northwest of KC.  The picture was taken by Dalon Coder. Thank you Lori and Dalon for sharing this with us and wow.

Screen Shot 2019-05-22 at 6.31.04 AM

There were 38 tornado reports yesterday and likely around a half dozen tornadoes that touched down over northeastern KS.  One cell intensified right over KCI Airport, but it never quite got its act together.

Today’s Risk:

day1otlk_1200The Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced Slight Risk just south of Kansas City, with the slight risk extending up into the KC area.  There is a little boundary stretching out of yesterday’s big storm, and interacting with the energy from the new developing southwestern system.

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_16A strengthening warm front will be developing over the southern plains. This warm front will extend east out of a surface cyclone forming over northeastern New Mexico.  Conditions will become favorable for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon, and then the activity will likely organize into a small complex of thunderstorms and shift south.  The first few hours of the development will likely lead to a few supercell thunderstorms with a tornado risk. From the SPC:  “Supercells with tornado potential are possible in central and northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas late this afternoon. A significant tornado may occur from near Tulsa northward into far southeast Kansas where the strongest low-level shear is forecast during the early evening.”

day1probotlk_1200_torn

This is the area of potential strong tornadoes, and it does include parts of the KC viewing area.  So, quite obviously we have to monitor this quite closely today.

Thursday’s Risk:

day2otlk_0600

The risks will keep coming in the next few days.  We will look deeper into Thursday into Saturday’s risks tomorrow.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading and sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.   Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Have a great day!

Gary

The Rain Keeps Coming

Good morning bloggers,

There were 50 to 60 mph winds overnight while you may have been sleeping. The first disturbance went by, and as the rain ended there was sinking air, and this “subsidence” caused the blast of wind we had from 2 AM to 5 AM this morning.  KCI Airport had a 51 mph wind gust at 2 AM, and a 52 mph wind gust at 5 AM.  Incredibly, in most years, 99 out of 100 of them, that would have prevented the next round of rain from coming up here, but not this year.  Not only is an organized area of rain and thunderstorms moving in, but it is strong enough to reduce any severe weather risk in our area to near zero.

16

Our severe weather risk is once again being reduced significantly by a huge area of rain moving across.  Here is the 6:45 AM radar as I was writing the blog this morning:

1

We are already up to 2.25″ of rain for this storm, and this is before this huge area of rain and thunderstorms had arrived.  The threat of severe weather will go way down once this line move through, the line that you can see on this radar image in red. It was approaching KC from the southwest.  2 to 3 more inches of rain are possible with this area of rain.

I just saw a radar tweeted from the NWS, and my weather mind went into motion as I knew I had seen this in a previous cycle, and there it is. The cycle length of this years pattern was calculated months ago to be 48.6 days.  Now, just look at this:

Screen Shot 2019-05-21 at 7.26.24 AM

The map on the left was this morning, and the map on the right was from our blog on December 26th, 146 days ago or 48.6 times 3.  You can’t make this up bloggers! The LRC shows the Order in Chaos! Here is the article that was just published in Meteorological Technology International Magazine:

Screen Shot 2019-04-28 at 5.05.06 PM

This storm is rather vigorous and the kicking storm is strong too.  You can see this storm now forming over Kansas with a strong wave moving north in very diffluent flow, where the lines spread apart over Kansas. And that kicking storm is something we will discuss tomorrow.

eta18hr_500_vrt

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!

Gary

High Risk: A Powerful & Dangerous Storm Predicted 120 Days Ago By Weather2020

Good morning bloggers,

There is a HIGH RISK of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas today.  A powerful storm is developing and it will produce severe weather risks the next couple of days.

severe

We will go in-depth in today’s blog entry, and we will begin with a discussion of how the LRC has been used to make yet another incredibly accurate prediction for this week’s severe weather and flooding risks!

This storm approaching and developing over the plains was predicted to arrive this week by Weather2020 on January 13th, or 127 days ago.  As I am sure many of you have been noticing, the accuracy this season has been rather remarkable, and this is yet another example.  Look at this forecast that has been unchanged in the 1Weather app database since we issued the forecast in January:

1Weather App From January 13

We have had our weather prediction pulse beating on this year’s pattern with accurate forecast after accurate forecast.  Remember, our prediction for this winters snowfall total in KC was 26″ from myself, and 27″ from Jeff Penner by using our knowledge of the LRC.  Kansas City had 29″ of snow this winter.  Add onto that the accurate prediction of the January 12th snow storm 45 days before it happened, and it was down to the date as we got 15 days out predicting a major snowstorm possible on January 12th. What happened?  12″ of snow in the KC metro area, which impacted tailgating for the Indianapolis/Chiefs game out at Arrowhead stadium.  And, this is following many years of increasingly accurate predictions, including the 8-month prediction of Tropical Storm Gordon, and the 55-day prediction of Major Hurricane Harvey the year before.  And, the incredible prediction for the weather outside at the 2014 Super Bowl in East Rutherford, NJ  where the forecast of “no snow and temperatures warming into the 50s” verified, while other forecasts were calling for brutal cold and snow.  How is this being done?  By understanding the cycling pattern and the peer reviewed LRC.  Over 30-years of research is now coming to fruition in these accurate forecasts.

As many of the bloggers and viewers at KSHB remember, we predicted that the second half of May would be wetter than the first half of May, and this latest prediction was made before May began.  We ended up with 3.59″ of rain in the first half of May, so the bar was set pretty high.  Kansas City is currently sitting at 2.11″ so far in the second half of May, and a lot more is on the way……..so much more rain, that we have been working hard at preparing Kansas City and surrounding regions for a potential extreme weather event.  Predicting extreme weather days, weeks, or even months ahead (which is what Weather2020 has done many times in recent years) is quite difficult. Predicting an extreme event a day or two ahead of time is hard.

This storm developing now is absolutely fascinating.  How will it come together today?  Let’s take a look:

severeAgain, there is a High Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Oklahoma and Texas.  From the Storm Prediction Center:    “An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition, many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas, into western Missouri and western Arkansas.  An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75-90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough.

141Ahead of the system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very favorable for severe thunderstorms.  As the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.  The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and property.

This next map on the right shows the climatology for where severe weather is most likely on May 20th, right over Tornado Alley.

The set up is far from easy to explain, in other words, complex:

3

This map above shows the upper level flow at the 500 mb level, or around 18,000 feet up.  There is a big ridge aloft extending from Mississippi northwest to the North Pole. This is splitting the jet stream with one stream over northeastern Canada, and another powerful jet stream being forced south over the southwestern United States. There is an upper level storm intensifying over the Four Corners states today and this energy will move out over the plains tonight.  And, then this happens:

4

The powerful storm forms into a closed upper low over Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a second strong storm diving south over California, and this will back up the surface features, and Kansas City will never really have any cold front passage, or it may have an Occluded front get to near KC, and then it will fall apart and back up in response to the southwestern storm.  More on this tomorrow.

2

The best chance of any severe weather near KC will come from the Tuesday Occluded front (purple), warm front, and dry line.  Notice how KC will not have a wind shift to the north.

Flash Flood Watch:  KC is under a Flash Flood Watch.  And, an extreme rain event is possible in the next two to ten days.  Look at the rainfall forecast from last night’s Canadian Model for the next ten days:

6

This rainfall forecast shows extreme rain amounts over a large area of the United States. KC is in the 15″ range.  With storm systems continuing to drop into the southwestern United States, it will continue to force the fronts to approach KC and stall. Where the focus of thunderstorms is from day to day will have to be analyzed on a day by day basis. It appears that these fronts will be stalling in a position to bring many more thunderstorm chances to our region, and KC is a target for the highest rainfall amounts.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds and dry through 4 PM. After 4 PM there is an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms. The chance of rain increases to nearly 100% by 8 PM or near sunset.  Heavy rain is possible on the leading edge, but the leading edge may weaken a bit as it approaches.  High:  60°  Wind: East to northeast at 5-15 mph.
  • Tonight:  A 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms.  It will be heavy at times.  1″ to 3″ likely with flooding possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.
  • Tuesday:  Becoming sunny after 4 PM. There is a 100% chance of rain and thunderstorms, a few thunderstorms may be severe on the leading edge of a new band of increasing thunderstorms from late morning into the early afternoon.  An additional 1″ to 2″ of rain is possible with a flooding risk continuing.  High: 74°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  There will be some moderation today, so we would appreciate it if everyone follows the rules and we continue this great place to share in this weather experience.  Have a great day!  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation or read the comments:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary