Second verse, same as the first… a little bit louder and your bubble it will burst. I took creative licence with the lyric.
Some thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight, but the bark may be the worst thing about them. Latest trends today indicate the threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will not happen in our area. Let’s break this down (and not like M.C. Hammer did in the 90s).
This is the area to watch for storm development tonight after about 9/10pm.
Most of the guidance agrees that this will be the area to focus on for thunderstorms to get going once all the dynamics get into place.
The latest look at the high resolution HRRR model claims the radar will look like this by midnight.
The NAM takes a similar approach, but says the activity hangs back a little more to the West.
So I will stick with saying that the area highlighted below has the best chance to hear thunderstorms tonight.
If you sleep through most noise, then you may not hear this stuff tonight. At worst, maybe one or two stronger cell develop that produce small hail. That looks to be it for the threat tonight.
On Tuesday afternoon, there will likely be redevelopment of thunderstorms late in the day (after 5pm), but only our far Southeastern counties have the chance of seeing anything.
This is what the NAM believes will happen tomorrow at 6pm.
And this is our in-house Powercast model, showing tomorrow night, which keeps things a little more West.
This is not to say it’s impossible for a storm to form farther West and even North, but the trend has been to push the activity more and more out of our coverage area.
With all this thunderstorm talk, it’s a good idea to remember that severe weather is around the bend for us. Coming up in a couple weeks, we’ll have our annual severe weather special air. Gary will present his forecast for the Spring and our team will give you some tips on how to be prepared for severe weather season. Plan to watch or at least set the DVR!
In the meantime, I invite you to check out my Weather Wise segment on KSHB.com. In most of the videos, I answer your questions. However, this week and next week I will focus on severe weather. In the latest video, I debunk some common myths about tornadoes.
I will continue to keep eyes on the radar tonight and provide updates as needed. The takeaway from all of this is: it will NOT be a severe weather outbreak. Anyone talking it up that way should be slapped with a “Hype” sign and then promptly tarred and feathered. Do they still do that anywhere? I digress.
You’ll be able to find weather updates (as needed) on my Twitter feed, and of course a complete check of the radar on our 10pm newscast tonight.
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