An Interesting Friday Night and Saturday

Good Friday bloggers,

The weekend is here!  We have a tough forecast for tonight and Saturday.

First, a disturbance plus warmer air trying to push in from the west is creating a large band of clouds from the northern Plains to our area.  In this band of clouds is an area of light snow and rain.  This mixed precipitation will head southeast into Missouri tonight, mostly affecting areas east of the state line.  There may be a few spots that see a dusting of snow east of KC, but it will be close, so this is tough forecast issue #1.

3 PM FRIDAY RADAR:

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This band of precipitation will head southeast into southern Missouri on Saturday as a warm front forms from central Nebraska to central Kansas.  This is going to cause tough forecast issue #2.  Snow could be falling in the Ozarks Saturday afternoon while it is near 80° in western Kansas.  So, we will have to watch and see how far east the warm air progresses.  We are going for a high in the low 50s Saturday, but could easily get stuck in the 40s with clouds.

SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHS:

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I guess this is why Kansas City was voted the toughest place to forecast the weather by 538.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-city-has-the-most-unpredictable-weather/

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Look At The Next 36 Hours

Good evening bloggers,

We have been in training, our entire weather team, today. And, this will go on again tomorrow, so if I seem a bit off that may be the reason. Okay, many would probably say I am a bit off anyway.  Do you know what I know is not quite right? The weather pattern, especially if you live near KC.  Take a look at the next 36 hours:

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The map above shows the forecast for midnight tonight.  We are forecasting it to be around 39 degrees at midnight when this rain moves through, and that would be just a bit too warm to see snowflakes. If it’s just two or three degrees colder some snowflakes could mix in.

Friday night actually poses a better chance of seeing some snow. It is similar to a system that produce 1.5″ of snow in the KC metro area a couple of weeks ago. Do you remember that thin band of snow that formed right over the downtown area of KC? There is an interesting set-up for Friday night. Why do these little things target us, and the big storms almost always miss us?

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I have to get back to training. And, we are also working on our Weather Special, “Before The Storm”, which will  air on April 7th at 6:30 PM!  One last thing this evening……look at the shadow cast from the sunlight being blocked by this jet contrail. I will show the time-lapse of this on 41 Action News tonight.  Have a great evening. Rain is heading our way.

1 PM

Gary

Severe Weather Way South Today….Rain Tonight

Good afternoon bloggers,

The severe weather risk is well to the south today. As discussed in our winter forecast, “Kansas City is not in the right spot”.  And, now we are moving into spring and today is yet another example of it. There will likely be a very heavy rain event near the I-44 corridor tonight, and then this storm will spread it’s moisture towards the northeastern United States once again.  We are in the middle, but there will likely be a somewhat exciting evening for us if you love rain. I love it when areas of rain form and it is just about as exciting when radar echoes begin developing.  So, let’s see how this evening’s rain event develops. The south side of the metro is most likely going to get the heavier rain, and by “heavier” I am not talking that much as most areas will end up getting anywhere from just a few hundredths to maybe 1/2″ farther south if we are lucky.  So, again, KC is just showing what has been wrong all winter.  Here is the risk area for this evening:

1 PM

 

It’s another fascinating day to look at the surface map:

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As of 2 PM there was a surface low developing over western Oklahoma with a warm front extending east from the surface low into northern Arkansas. The best chance of severe weather will be near the front extending back southwest to near that surface low.  The sun had come out in Kansas City, and at the moment there is no sign of any rain development near us, but we expect it to begin forming by 6 PM.

After this goes by, there is a fast moving disturbance that will likely bring us some rain on Thursday night. It will be very close to mixing with snow.  A snowstorm did show up on the GFS model during that first few days of April. Let’s see if we do get one more opportunity before spring wins out. Right now, it is a battle between spring and winter.  Have a great evening!  We will have your most accurate forecast on 41 Action News tonight!

Gary

Severe Weather Risk South Today, Snowflakes Possible Later In The Week

Mid-Afternoon Update at 3:40 PM:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas just southeast of Kansas City. If the thunderstorms don’t form fast they will be well off to the south and east. We are on beginning at 4 PM, and then at 5 and 6 PM as we monitor this development:

1 PM

 

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

I am back from vacation today. It was a great trip visiting family in Southern California where there were a few thunderstorms a few days ago. Here in KC we had our first thunderstorms since October 9th, 165 days ago. That is a very long time without a thunderstorm. Well, we broke the ice and today there is a risk of severe weather across the plains.

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You can see the upper level storm. As I put this satellite movie into motion it has a very good spin to it. New areas of rain and thunderstorms will likely form around the center of this system later this afternoon with KC again being on the edge. If it just digs a bit farther southeast then we could have a spinning area of rain, but it may track just north of the metro area. Farther south, in the warmer air, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms.

day1otlk_1300

Large hail is the main risk type today and the risk is centered over southwestern Missouri. In Kansas City it will likely not get out of the 40s today which will likely keep us protected from any severe weather, but there could be some hail if that disturbance tracks just a bit farther south.

There is a second storm system that will become even stronger on Wednesday.  The SPC has a risk out for tomorrow as well.

day2otlk_0600

 

As this system intensifies on Wednesday, it will become the main storm that will once again target the northeastern United States with rain and some more snow. Speaking of snow, there is a chance of a few snowflakes Thursday night or Friday.  We will look into all of this on 41 Action News today and tonight.  Have a great day!

Gary

Random rumbles may be as “bad” as it gets

Second verse, same as the first… a little bit louder and your bubble it will burst. I took creative licence with the lyric.

Some thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight, but the bark may be the worst thing about them. Latest trends today indicate the threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will not happen in our area. Let’s break this down (and not like M.C. Hammer did in the 90s).

This is the area to watch for storm development tonight after about 9/10pm.
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Most of the guidance agrees that this will be the area to focus on for thunderstorms to get going once all the dynamics get into place.
The latest look at the high resolution HRRR model claims the radar will look like this by midnight.
HRRRMidnight

The NAM takes a similar approach, but says the activity hangs back a little more to the West.
NAM Midnight

So I will stick with saying that the area highlighted below has the best chance to hear thunderstorms tonight.
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If you sleep through most noise, then you may not hear this stuff tonight. At worst, maybe one or two stronger cell develop that produce small hail. That looks to be it for the threat tonight.

On Tuesday afternoon, there will likely be redevelopment of thunderstorms late in the day (after 5pm), but only our far Southeastern counties have the chance of seeing anything.
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This is what the NAM believes will happen tomorrow at 6pm.
NAM 6pm

And this is our in-house Powercast model, showing tomorrow night, which keeps things a little more West.
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This is not to say it’s impossible for a storm to form farther West and even North, but the trend has been to push the activity more and more out of our coverage area.

With all this thunderstorm talk, it’s a good idea to remember that severe weather is around the bend for us. Coming up in a couple weeks, we’ll have our annual severe weather special air. Gary will present his forecast for the Spring and our team will give you some tips on how to be prepared for severe weather season. Plan to watch or at least set the DVR!

In the meantime, I invite you to check out my Weather Wise segment on KSHB.com. In most of the videos, I answer your questions. However, this week and next week I will focus on severe weather. In the latest video, I debunk some common myths about tornadoes.
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I will continue to keep eyes on the radar tonight and provide updates as needed. The takeaway from all of this is: it will NOT be a severe weather outbreak. Anyone talking it up that way should be slapped with a “Hype” sign and then promptly tarred and feathered. Do they still do that anywhere? I digress.

You’ll be able to find weather updates (as needed) on my Twitter feed, and of course a complete check of the radar  on our 10pm newscast tonight.
-JD