Holiday Weather Thoughts & My New Dog!

Good afternoon and Happy Memorial Day,

It has rained 22 of the first 25 days of this month, and KCI Airport is now up to 8.55″. We are not even close to being done, and a wet storm is likely to arrive this weekend. Between now and then there is a spinning disturbance moving northeast at around 25 mph. It will likely arrive near KC later tonight into early Tuesday morning to make it 23 out of 26 days this month with rain. I don’t quite remember that many days in any month before with rain or snow, but I could be wrong. I haven’t checked yet.  Here is the disturbance moving our way. There are watches and warnings on the leading edge of this system mostly over Texas.

1

 

Tonight at 10 we will name the new Weather Dog. The top names right now are Haily, Sunny, Misty, and Rainy. What do you think?  Here is a picture of Breezy, Stormy, and the new puppy as the sun came out this morning:

Dog1

Have a great day. We will do a more extensive blog later on this evening, or in the morning.

Gary

Rainfall numbers & searching for dry days

More rain is making its way through the area this evening, but it will be nothing like what we saw Saturday night. This will be just the light, annoying variety. However, it will add to our already impressive rainfall totals. Speaking of, here are the two-day totals as of 3pm this afternoon (the new results will come in later tonight).
6

Looking over the month of May so far, and wow.
7

So this is how I’m seeing things tonight into Memorial Day Monday.
5

I am not concerned with severe weather for tonight, however things change on Monday. I think with the sunshine coming back, it could lead to some heat-of-the-day storms. Powercast picks up on this and claims it starts at about 6pm. By 7p, there could be a small line of thunderstorms trying to form.
8

While the risk of severe weather is low, I could see some stronger storms that produce some strong wind & perhaps some small hail. I think that would be worst-cast scenario for Monday. Overall, not a reason to cancel your plans. Just keep tabs on the us and/or the radar.

As far as finding a dry day goes, I don’t think we’ll see a totally dry day across the area for a while. Maybe Thursday. From the guidance I have looked at and the way things have been overall, I just have to allow for some spotty showers to float through the area almost every day this week. That does not mean that EVERYONE gets rain and it rains ALL day… it just means we have the chance for at least something small to sail through and say hello.
The GFS was being more aggressive with rainfall, while the Euro actually did pain a drier picture for us.
Of course, we will fine-tune the details as each day draws closer. I’m sure at this point, avid weather geeks are hoping for a nice ridge to develop of the Central Plains. I know I am!

Stay dry and have a nice evening,
-JD

Sunday PM Update

Good afternoon,

We had a bot of excitement for an hour this afternoon as a few brief tornado warnings were issued southwest of Sedalia.  There were some brief circulations on the leading edge of the thunderstorms as they moved northeast.  These were not classic super cells.  This system is now out of the viewing area.  There is one last disturbance in the series of systems we have been tracking for the last 24 hours.  This will bring one more round of rain and a few thunderstorms to all locations between now and midnight.  New rainfall of .50″-2″ is possible.  This will cause some flooding, especially flood prone intersections.

1

 

The next system is heading our way.

2

 

The rain ends after midnight.  Memorial day is looking dry, warm and humid with perhaps some thunderstorms at night.  JD will have an update later and be on 41 Action News at 5 and 10.

 

Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Jeff

A Day of Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

The much talked about rain started Saturday evening and will end this evening.  We will have periods of rain, heavy at times today.  The flooding is not going to be horrible, but there are intersections that will flood.  If you see high water, “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN”.  6″ of water can disable a car.

So, far as of Sunday morning we have received around 1.5″ of rain in the city, .50-1″ to the east and 1-3″ to the southwest.  This has been enough to flood intersections, but it has come down slow enough to prevent major issues.  This will be the case for the duration of the storm.

1

 

We are still in a Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning.  The blue colors are river/creek flood warnings.  There is a larger flood warning from Emporia south where 3-4″ of rain occurred last night.

2

 

What’s next?  There  is a spinning area of rain east of Oklahoma City.  This is headed north and will increase our rain later this morning and afternoon.  After the wave passes there will be lingering showers, some heavy into the evening.  Then the whole thing sifts east.

3

 

The good news is that Memorial Day is looking mostly dry, warm, and humid.  This is by far the best day of the weekend to do outdoor activities.

4

Have a great rest of your weekend and stay safe.  We will have updates through the day at www.kshb.com/weather.  JD will be in this afternoon.

Jeff

Heavy rain likely tonight into Sunday

Here…we…go.
Been talking about the potential for heavy rain tonight into Sunday and it’s showing up on radar already. Many have asked what this means for the Royals game tonight.
1

Based on just radar trends, I would put that rain in here around 8:30p or so. That’s not to say another small shower may not develop and move over the stadium before then. But the heavy, soaking rain that may threaten the game won’t arrive until about 8:30pm. I expect a few rounds of heavy rain to roll over the area as the overnight periods goes on.
2

So looking at overall Royals forecast for tonight and tomorrow, it’s not looking all that pretty.
3r

When it comes to the rainfall amounts, I’ve seen quite the spread from the models. At one point, powercast was saying 3.75″ for KCI. I think that’s a little too generous. Based off radar estimates from the line out there already, I’d feel safe in saying one to about two and half inches is possible.
This is what the latest powercast is suggesting, and I don’t think it’s too bad.
5
That said, the ground is pretty full of water right now, so another couple inches may lead to flooding concerns in some neighborhoods. Please be aware.

Looking more ahead at Memorial Day Monday, I am seeing indications that most of the day may wind up dry. Similar to how today has been. The exception would be that there may be a little more sunshine in the afternoon. That would warm us up but also lead to a chance for afternoon storms to bubble up. I’m not thinking we’ll see severe weather, but some rumbles here and there are possible.
3

Here’s to hoping the Royals can get the game in tonight and find a way to sneak in the game Sunday. Remember that lightning is still a factor in this band moving through tonight, so I would be cautious of the lightning danger for those outdoors…be it Royals, camping, grilling, or whatever.

If you find yourself with some good rain photos or videos, be sure to send them our way and we may use them on the air.
-JD