Good morning bloggers,
We begin, on this Thanksgiving Eve, with a question. Will it snow this winter? Well, the chance of it snowing in Miami is nearly zero, and the chance of it snowing in Los Angeles is likely zero. In Kansas City, we know it is going to snow. The least snowiest winter season snowfall total in KC has been 3.9″ in the 2011-2012 winter. And, last winter was close:
Less then 5 inches of snow fell last year. Only five days had any accumulation at all, which was likely a record low number of dates with measurable snowfall. Kansas City has never gone three years in a row with under 10″ of snow in each season. So, the chance of KC having 10″ of snow or more would seem to be nearly 100% unless we have that historic 3rd year in a row.
There is no snow in sight. Here is a look at the weather pattern:
The pattern is being dominated by a rather large upper level ridge around 18,000 feet above the southwestern United States centered off of Baja, CA. A storm is developing over the Gulf of Mexico and heading into Florida. The Pacific northwest and Florida will be the stormy spots on Thanksgiving, but the rest of the nation will be extremely quiet. There is a weak blocking upper high near the North Pole.
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has dipped to -3, which is pretty low, and there is some indication of blocking, but not in the right places to produce exciting weather at this moment. The AO is forecast to surge back to neutral, but then negative again in the next two weeks. I will have a lot more to say about this in our full winter forecast write up that will be published here on the blog Monday at 6:30 PM when our Winter Weather Forecast special comes out. We have learned a lot more just in the past few days to weeks, and we will share it with you after a bit more analysis. What you want to see is for this AO and the NAO to stay negative and dip even deeper during the winter that is a few weeks away from starting. The NAO is also trending to negative and staying there right now. I like this part of what we are seeing, but this weather pattern continues to be not so exciting at the moment.
This next map above shows the 500 mb flow valid Sunday evening. That ridge off of Baja moves inland to Mexico. The trough coming into the west coast will be monitored closely, but as it moves out into the plains it gets all dysfunctional. Remember last year, the storms that didn’t come together became much stronger just as spring began. Maybe this year, one or two of the cycles will have much more functional storm systems during the winter. For now, we continue to wait during a rather boring stretch of weather in November. I will take it for now, as I am the emcee of the Plaza Lighting tomorrow night and light winds, dry and temperatures in the 40s sounds good to me.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: High pressure settles in overhead with light south winds returning later this afternoon. It will be mostly sunny with a few high clouds. High: 42°
- ‘Thanksgiving Day: Clear with a few high clouds with a light breeze. High: 58°
- Thursday night for the Plaza Lighting: Clear with calm winds. A great night to come out and celebrate a KC tradition with us at 41 Action News. Temperatures in the 40s.
- Friday: Increasing south winds, sunny, and much warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 7os with south winds 10-25 mph by later in the day.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.