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Catch The Waves In This Approaching Storm

Good morning bloggers,

It is back to work for me at KSHB-TV tonight, and it will be an interesting day to describe the weather on television.  A storm system is approaching and there is a series of waves that will be generated and affect the weather across the region between now and Saturday.  The last wave may be the most interesting. Let’s discuss these waves in today’s blog, beginning with the final wave that is showing up on some of the models:  Look at this map below, valid Saturday morning.

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This is the 500 mb forecast from the ICON model, and the other models have similar solution.  500 mb is half way through earth’s atmosphere in weight, as the top of the atmosphere has zero weight, while the surface pressure averages around 1012.25 mb, or 29.92″ of mercury.  Todays’ pressure in KC, for example, was 1022.4 mb (30.19″), as high pressure was moving away. The pressure is falling as this storm approaches.  At around 18,000 feet, the pressure is 500 mb, and this is the level we are looking at on this map above. This level shows the storm systems fairly well.  The final wave of energy from this approaching storm is forecast to have a little separation in the lines of equal height.  There is a 552 line tracking across northern Iowa, and then a big separation, as the next line, the 558 line dips around an upper level disturbance over Kansas.  Look at the reflection at the surface from this final wave from this storm, below:

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This forecast map shows the surface weather pattern at 1 PM Saturday from the GFS model.  If the final wave of energy is just a bit more organized, it may snow near Kansas City Saturday morning. This model actually shows a little blue over northern Missouri during the morning Saturday, and there will likely be a hard freeze by Sunday morning.  The chance of any snow will depend strongly on that final wave moving across on Saturday.  If it is a bit less organized, then it will be dry Saturday morning. The trend has been for it to be a bit more organized.

The First Wave Of Energy From This Storm:

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Oksay, so back to the first wave of energy. This will be approaching the area on Thursday morning.  The Kansas City Royals will be hosting the Chicago White Sox Thursday, and the second game is scheduled for Saturday. When baseball season opens, most cities have an open date on day two just in case of bad weather.  Well, there will be some issues with rain and thunderstorms possible Thursday as you can see above on that surface forecast valid at 7 PM Thursday.  The first pitch is at 3:10 PM, so we just need around a four hour window of dry weather and the game would get in without a problem. The chance of rain is high, nearly 100% on Thursday, so we just have to see how the first wave times out.

The Second Main Wave Of Energy From This Storm:

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The second main wave of energy will move across on Friday, as you can see above.  A strong cold front will be organizing, and there is again nearly a 100% chance of rain on Friday as this second wave approaches and moves across.  This energy will create the conditions for some strong to severe thunderstorms as is shown below in the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Friday:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

The last 70° day in Kansas City was October 29, 2018. That is 4 months and 27 days without a 70 degree day.  It was 72° on October 29th, and it may reach 72° today with some wind.

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and windy.  South winds 20-40 mph.  High:  72°
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. A thunderstorm or two is possible. The wind will be lighter from the south or southeast at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  There may be a few hours break from the rain a couple of times.  High:  65°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. A few thunderstorms are possible.  A cold front will move through with the wind increasing from the north.  High:  60°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a 70% chance of rain. There is a 20% chance of snow mixed in.  High: 46° and falling.
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and cold. A freeze is likely.  Low:  26°.  High:  48°

So, which wave are you going to catch? Between now and Saturday afternoon 1″ to 3″ of rain is likely.  Just like snow, it doesn’t mean 3″ of rain will fall at your location. A few spots will likely end up with just under an inch of rain.  If this was a snowfall forecast, then mentally the average person would likely think, “wow we are going to get 3″.  But, it isn’t a snowfall forecast, and there is a mental difference.  I am just thinking out loud here, so hopefully that made sense.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  We continue to share in this weather experience as we all learn more each day.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog. Have a great day.

Gary

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