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Calmer Weather, Still Need Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

The weather pattern will be much calmer the next three to five days as a storm system is stalled over the eastern 1/3 of the USA. Northwest flow will bring a few rounds of thunderstorms to the western Plains, but they will mostly fall apart before they reach here as we are too close to the eastern system. A few showers and thunderstorms may sneak in from the west, but overall it looks dry through Wednesday.

Let’s take a look at the latest drought monitor. You can see the worst of the drought is located from Maryville to Columbia, MO, Johnson county, KS and from Emporia to Wichita, KS.

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Here is the radar estimated rainfall since Saturday, 7/21. The locations that saw meaningful rain, 2″-5″, occurred from eastern Johnson county, KS to Warsaw, MO, scattered in central MO and west of Emporia. Also, not shown is a 2″-5″ rain area northeast of  Trenton, MO.  All other locations mostly received under 1″ of rain.

So, based on these maps which areas may have seen a drought reduction? The eastern 1/2 of Johnson county, KS, Cass county, MO and some areas northwest of Columbia, MO. The areas of heavy rain southeast of KC fell over areas mostly drying out, but not drought stricken. Yes, there are localized areas that saw some nice rain, but when it comes to a drought, they really don’t count. You need to see where the widespread rainfall occurred.

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The rainfall the last 7 days certainly did not hurt anything, but helped just a little. The soybeans were likely helped. The corn that is not dead was likely helped as well. We need more rain.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 7 days.

The heaviest rain looks to occur in the western Plains with 2″-5″ totals. There will be an extension of heavier rain to the east. However, there are signs it wants to shift south. It is going to depend on how much northwest flow we have at the end of the week. The more northwest flow, the more south the rain shifts. The more west flow, the better chance of the heavier rain tracking east.

Note, most of this rain occurs after Wednesday. Let’s see how the forecast evolves over the coming days.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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