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Calmer for a Few Days

Happy Father’s day bloggers,

We have completed a five day period where there were chances of thunderstorms, some severe and boy did we get it.  We have some calmer days ahead before it gets active again.  Let’s go through what has occurred, the calmer days and the return of thunderstorm chances.  We will do a LRC check as we look into the active weather’s return.

Here are the severe weather reports from Saturday night.  The tornadoes were confined to Wisconsin even though we had a brief tornado warning Saturday night around Odessa.

Severe Weather June 17 2017

 

As we look at the severe reports closer in you can see a path along I-70 and some to the north as there was one main severe thunderstorm that crossed KC.  There was a second severe thunderstorm in Platte county, but it weakened as it moved east.

Severe Weather June 17 2017 Close

 

On June 13th we officially had received 0.03″ of rain at KCI, well, since then we have seen 2.81″ and have practically caught up to where we should be for this time of month.  Saturday KCI received 1.62″ of rain and did you know we average 0.17″ of rain per day this time of year.  We are just coming out of the wettest time of year on average.

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This is the Father’s day sunrise in KC, what a beautiful start to the day and a beautiful end to a very active period of weather.  So, now what is next?

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SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY: The severe threat is well to the south as the cold front from Saturday pushes away from the middle of the USA.

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SUNDAY: A surface high pressure will be moving in from western Kansas and with winds blowing away and clockwise around a surface high in the northern hemisphere we will be seeing a northwest wind which brings in cooler and less humid conditions.

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MONDAY: The surface high pressure will still be in control, so we are in for more nice weather as highs reach the low 80s.  The humidity will remain in check as we see a westerly breeze.  There will be a few clouds around.

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TUESDAY: The surface high pressure will still be near by, so the nice weather will continue.  It will warm to near 90° as our winds continue from the west and southwest, but the humidity will stay tolerable.  Thunderstorms in western Kansas will not reach here Tuesday night and Wednesday, but they may Thursday and Friday.  Let’s talk about that and show how this fits LRC 2016-17.

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Here is the upper level flow forecast for Thursday, June 22nd.  Let’s look at the three features labelled below.  The first one is a positively tilted trough in the Rockies, a ridge near the west coast of North America and a small wave in the Tennessee Valley moving into the southeast USA.  The small wave may be a combination of a system from the west and tropical system forming in the Caribbean Sea.  We will have more on the tropical system this week.

June 22 2017

 

Here is the 500 mb flow from April 24th.  As you know Gary has been discussing the cycle length quite a bit this year and we have determined it is around 59 days.  So, June 22nd and April 24th are 59 days apart and look at the three features.  One is the positively tilted trough moving in the Rockies, two is the ridge near the west coast of North America and three is the system moving through the southeast.

Now, there are seasonal difference as the southeast system is deeper in April, but remember it may be a very wet storm this week as it combines with a tropical system.  The jet stream is undercutting the ridge off of North America in April, but in June it is weaker and cannot do that, so more energy goes up and over the ridge, but the big features are in general in the same location.

 

Apr 24 2017

 

So, the GFS and the LRC are in agreement and this gives us confidence in the forecast for this period.  This means we have increased chances of thunderstorms Wednesday night-Friday as the Rockies trough moves east and interacts with summer heat and humidity.

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Have a great week and again Happy Father’s day.

Jeff Penner

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