Good morning bloggers,
A Blizzard Warning has been put into effect over parts of northern Kansas and Missouri. It goes into effect Sunday afternoon. A Major Winter Storm is developing and targeting the Kansas City viewing area. There are still a few uncertainties as we know there will still be a cut off line where there will be little accumulation south of this line. The models have been narrowing in on solutions that have shifted this line farther south away from KC. We are thinking that 3 to 6 inches will be wide spread over the KC metro with 6 to 12 inches farther north. There may even be a few spots with more than a foot. It has been a very long time since Kansas City even had 3″ in a storm, and this streak is going to end on Sunday:
It has been 1,755 days since our last 3 inch snowfall in one storm, a streak nearly 5 years long. Well, this will end. Why? Just look at this storm:
The storm is being modeled to intensify during the day and track south of KC. This is of extreme importance. The center of that circle, the 540 (5,400 meters above the surface) line is down near Pleasanton, KS at 1 PM Sunday according to this model. Along and north of the center of this upper lows path is where the heaviest snow will be located. If this storm forms a well defined comma head, then an additional 2 to 3 inches will be possible in areas near KC as the storm begins moving away. The back edge will be rotating overhead and heavy snow is often the result in these comma heads. Take a look at the snow generating machine that most models are predicting to track perfectly for these heavy snow bands to from near KC. Areas north of I-70 to the Iowa and Nebraska borders are still the target for the heaviest accumulation.
This map above shows the 850 mb flow with a perfect track of this very strong system. The 850 mb low is predicted to be just southeast of KC at noon today. This is when the cold air will be blasting in with temperatures dropping into the 20s. The initial snow and rain will not accumulate, and shortly thereafter, as temperatures drop, the snow will be effectively accumulating with snowfall rates of 2″ per hour. The solid blue line is the 32°F line.
After the 10 PM newscast, this map actually updated and that line near the south side of the city, shifted all the way down to Paola. I added in what I believe will end up verifying by 8 PM tonight. This includes 4-8 inches across most of the KC metro area. We will learn a lot more in the morning.
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