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Big temperature swings this week

Good morning bloggers,

Have you watched “Let’s Ask America”?  It is on KSHB-TV every night at 6:30 PM.  I will be on the show playing against other meteorologists on Thursday night.  I will be playing for the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City.

While the northeastern and mid-Altantic states are getting a nice precipitation event today, we continue to be almost bone dry.  Today’s weather will feature a huge warm-up, and then it will be followed by a cold blast, but with very little chance of significant precipitation.

Here is New York City’s forecast:  Snow is likely this morning. It will then change to rain and snow mixed with sleet and freezing rain this afternoon.  Very little accumulation of ice or snow is expected.  Highs will be just above freezing. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

It just doesn’t seem fair.  New York City is in one of the hot spots that we had in our winter forecast. Kansas City is not even close to one of the hot spots and it has been a struggle for us to have any precipitation.  The drought is worsening again with no end in sight.  We do expect a few good chances for precipitation in February, but the potential for a soaking rain or a major snowstorm is very low.

Temperatures will be warming up today:

1

As you can see above, the temperatures will be warming to near 70 degrees in our viewing area this afternoon.  A strong cold front will move through with an Arctic blast making it’s way southeast later this week.  There is still some question as to how much of this Arctic air will make it into the KC metro area, but it will certainly be a strong push of cold air.  Take a look at the surface temperature forecast valid Thursday morning:

2

This is a true Arctic blast that will impact the northern plains and then into the Great Lakes and upper midwest states. But, Kansas City will be on the southwestern edge of this brutally cold air mass.

I have looked at the new data. I would like to continue to analyze the situation and write up a new blog later today.  We have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly in the morning and most likely south and east of Kansas City, and then a chance of some snow as the storm zips by tomorrow night. We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Have a great day!

Gary

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34 comments to Big temperature swings this week

  • Weatherfreak01

    The NWS used both the T words for Tuesday, thunder and tornados for the areas E of I35. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. I can’t believe they are talking about a chance for tornados and it is only Jan.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Gary, are you backing down from 3-4 snows in February now ? What about the week of 6-10 Feb that you called for poor weather? That still on?

    • I am still forecasting two snows in February, possibly three or four. I am not forecasting any major snowstorms, although I hope one shows up as we need the moisture so badly. We have not been, nor will we be in one of the hot spots this winter.

      • HeatMiser

        That’s weak Gary, so if we get dusting to an inch a couple of times you can say you were right. Predicting 2-4 snow storms in February should mean you expect to have at least 2 somewhat significant snows.

  • rred95

    ok so no major snowstorm this winter. what about the 3 0r 4 smaller storms in feb could we at least get 2 0r 3 inch snowfall.

    • Or one to two inches.It seems that is all this pattern is capable of doing for us. It is frustrating. Maybe one of them will come together for a bigger February event.

  • frigate

    This pattern is beyond aggravating…absolutely nothing has changed and this is so maddening, with the chances of heavier precip tomorrow higher just east of KC. So once again…looks like area’s like Columbia, Springfield and St Louis will get the rain and we’re left high and dry!!! I do see the NWS has some higher chances up to eastern Jackson cty. Gary, any chance the front will slow down and we’ll get in on some of the action?

    • Yes, Jeff, aggravating is a good word. We are in an “aggravating” weather pattern. Even last winter we had some wet storm systems. Not this winter.

  • weatherman brad

    I think the spc could maybe upgrading kc in a elevated risk for strong to severe storma somtime.later today for kc, at least that is what I am hearing from most people.

    brad

  • rred95

    With this pattern i will gladly take 10 inches total snowfall this winter. Sad that expectations are now half our average snowfall.

  • mgsports

    NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND
    EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
    DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  • Supercell

    Gary,

    I firmly believe in the LRC, but I also believe there may be something bigger then the yearly LRC pattern. The two winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 were almost identical in pattern. Both were way above average in snowfall and below average in temperature. Then the winters of 2011/2012 and this winter of 2012/2013 come along and are almost identical. This seems like more than a coincidence. The individual yearly patterns were slightly different, but the overall pattern was the same for two years in a row in all four winters. Looking back, this happened in the winters of ’76/’77 and ’77/’78. It also happened in the mid ’60s and ’50s (two almost identical weather years occurring back-to-back). I don’t have the answer; I’m just suggesting that maybe every stone isn’t being turned over if the recurrences of identical weather years that show up back-to-back throughout history aren’t looked at a little closer. They may hold the key to a longer cycle that can explain the LRC.

    Just my humble Monday morning thoughts.

  • dogsinkc

    Record highs… record highs. It’s the new norm now. I have a bad feeling the 100 degree days will start in May this year. Heck, maybe April.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The snow on the 30th made its way back onto the 12z GFS. I swear this will probably be one of those what and see to the 9th hour deals. Which as stated before is really getting tiresome.

    • This system, again, will be just zipping by tomorrow night. It may snow, but temperatures are going to be above freezing up until the two to four hour window for any snow. And, the thunderstorms will be likely east and south of KC.

  • sedsinkc

    The new record high is already in the books. 67 at KCI at noon. 70, if not higher, looks very doable now. All time record high for January is 75. Nice big patch of clear skies around Kansas City and to our south on satellite view.

  • Jerry

    Looks like the forecast high of 66 might be in serious danger…

  • Theo

    May see some flakes in the air Wednesday, but no accumulation. Also, may hear some rumbles of thunder tomorrow, but less than a 10th of an inch of rain. Main part of the storm will be east.

    Normal storm like this would bring heavy precip. Won’t in a drought. Region will be crying for any rain come May.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    72 in northeast

  • f00dl3

    Get used to it. 75 degrees during the heart of winter is going to be easier to reach than 5 degrees here on out.

  • sedsinkc

    71 at KCI at 1 pm. Today could end up being at least tied for the 2nd warmest January day on record. I doubt KCI will get to 75, but the 2nd warmest high on record for January is 73 which is reachable. Next hourly obs should be telling. 73 at my house in KC North right now.

  • sedsinkc

    Topeka just reached 75 degrees, which sets a new all-time January record high for that city.

  • Theo

    KCI is 74 degrees at 2pm.

  • Currently at 72.8 deg in Raytown with temperatures still gradually rising. It was nice, yet disturbing, to take the dog for a walk in this weather in January.

    I’m ready for a real winter, again!! Haven’t even put the snowblade on the tractor yet this year…what fun is that?

    http://www.raytownweather.com

  • sedsinkc

    Last winter was very warm in general, but we did not have a 70 degree high between November 20th and March 5th. This meteorological winter, so far we tied the all time record high for December (74) and we’re now 1 degree from tying the all time record high for January. 74 at KCI, 76 downtown at 2 p.m.! So this winter is less warm overall, but prone to extremes of high temperature.

    • sedsinkc

      Wild temp swings probably another symptom of the worsening drought.

      • Theo

        Absolutely agree! Simple physics (or chemistry). Dry air is easier to heat up/cool down than moist air. Regular difference between highs/lows is around 20-22 degrees. Over this drought, I would suspect it’s 25 or more degrees (no stats to back it up-just a guess).

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Theo, I agree with the physics of heating/ cooling dry air versus wet/ humid air. The extra energy needed to vaporize water molecules slows down the process.

    How much of the heating / cooling has to do not just with dryness but also the blocking ridges formed by a stronger wan air system than a cold one? We seem to always be blocked in one way or another by high pressure ridges that either block cooler air or lock dry air in place.

    I’m not liking this warm up as it can cause premature growth of dormant grasses and plant life that can be killed off by another freeze. If those plants are killed off and not hold soil in place we get alot more arid soil and with the drought firmly entrenched it bodes ill for te spring and summer.